A SurveyUSA poll finds that John Kerry is up by only one point in California. If this poll isn’t a statistical aberration (which it could be), it indicates Kerry is in real trouble. The chances of Bush winning California seem small – but even if he doesn’t this allows the President to force Kerry to have to campaign in what should be a safe Democratic state – drawing resources away from other swing states.
I’m quite surprised that the Iraq prison scandals haven’t forced Bush’s numbers down – instead the last week of polling shows they’re remarkably stable and he’s still tied with Kerry in a two-way race and ahead in a three-way race. The dynamics of this election show that Bush is in a much stronger position than one would expect after months of constant media attacks.