It appears as though the attempted revolution of Shi’ite radical Moqtada al-Sadr has reached an ignominious end. While Sadr has escaped with his life and his freedom (at least for now), his attempts to form a Shi’ite bloc against the coalition have completely and utterly failed. Sadr had hoped to lead a victorious army against the coalition, instead he’s leaving in shame.
The most important thing for the coalition was to discredit Sadr. Instead of killing or arresting him, they’ve isolated him from the other Shi’a and made him an outcast in Iraqi society. They’ve managed to capture his associates, kill his most ardent members of the Mahdi Army, and oust him from the key Shi’a city of Najaf.
Avoiding a standoff in Najaf was crucial. An open battle near the sacred Shrine of Ali would have been politically disastrous for the coalition. The Shi’a have shown that they don’t want theocracy and have soundly rejected Sadr’s brand of thuggery.
For all the cries of how incompetent the coalition is and how things have fallen apart in Iraq, the coalition has managed to defuse a potentially explosive situation in a key Shi’ite city without significant bloodshed and without being forced to fight in Najaf. It is perhaps not the kind of victory that some would want, but it is a victory nevertheless.
