Hindrocket of Powerline notices that Bush’s numbers are showing a rebound after the lows of last month. Part of this may be from Reagan’s funeral, but I think there’s another force acting here.
Exactly why would anyone vote for John Kerry?
Kerry says he’ll create 10 million jobs – Bush is already well on the way to topping that if the current rates of growth continue, and it’s quite possible they will. Kerry says he’ll bring the UN into Iraq – we already have a unanimous UN resolution acknowledging the interim government. The French and Germans aren’t going to help, no matter how much anyone begs them to.
In essence, Kerry has one issue that he has to run on: he’s not Bush. For some people who are consumed with partisan hatred and vitriol, that’s enough. For the other 60% of the country, it isn’t anywhere near enough. Kerry has to distinguish himself from Bush, and he either has to embrace a far-left platform (which will kill him with the voters) or he has to continue to be Bush-lite, which means that the developing cracks in the Democratic coalition will only grow with time.
If that weren’t enough, the Bill Clinton show is about to begin, and no one hogs the spotlight like Bill Clinton. The next four weeks will be all-Clinton, all the time as his book tour begins and the requisite book tour has Bill’s smug mug gracing every TV set and magazine cover in the country. Kerry won’t get a word in edgewise, and Clinton is unlikely to offer him much help. It’s always been about the Clintons first, and a President Kerry doesn’t give Hilary her chance in 2008.
This election will still be close, but the momentum is not on Kerry’s side. It would take another major scandal or a major Bush screwup (which given the Bush Administration is all too possible) for this momentum to change. Kerry is losing issues by the day, and while he can largely count on the support of the Barking Moonbat Democrats, there is still a small pool of swing voters that will decide this race. At this point, if the economy holds steady as it has the violence in Iraq doesn’t significantly escalate, those swing voters are going to have little reason to vote for Kerry in the fall. And should the Bush campaign really get its act in gear, Kerry is going to have a real race on his hands – and while Kerry may have a good endgame in liberal Massachusetts, the craggy liberal will find that the US is an entirely different battleground.
This election will still be close, but the momentum is not on Kerry’s side.
Didn’t they teach you how to read a graph in college, Jay? Here’s a graph of Bush’s approval rating. Now, those numbers only go as far as May but they show a clear declining trend.
I’d say the momentum is very much against Bush, and why wouldn’t it be? The only platform he’s ever had an advantage on is the war on terror, and with terrorism up, not down, that’s rapidly evaporating.
Well, then again, there’s one place where the Bush administration is ahead: attack ads.
You’re right that this election is about hate and vitriol directed towards one man – John Kerry, and it’s coming right out of the Bush administration. Why would anybody vote for Kerry? You might want to ask why anyone would vote for Bush, when he can’t do the one thing he claims to be able to do; win the war on terror.
Of course, Bush doesn’t have a bevy of 527 organizations to do his dirty work for him as Kerry has done. The cries about how mean the GOP has been to poor John Kerry are unpersuasive after months of continuous Bush bashing from the Democratic primaries on down.
The fact is that Kerry is a lackluster candidate whose numbers have barely moved and remains low, the economy is rebounding thanks to Bush’s fiscal policy, the situation in Iraq is difficult but the transition to sovereignty will not be derailed (exactly what Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi feared), and the American public doesn’t trust John Kerry.
Just look at the numbers. On national defense Bush blows Kerry away 54% to 38%. On the economy Bush beats Kerry 49%-41%. This is from a Rassmussen poll, which historical has given Kerry an edge.
The fact is that the Democrats once said that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself”. Now the Democratic platform is fear itself.
“The fact is that the Democrats once said that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself”. Now the Democratic platform is fear itself.”
I don’t agree with you here, Jay. Kerry has launched positive ads around the St. Louis area. It seems to be an issue add on healthcare. True the add starts with Kerry saying that he thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. But the main focus of the add is that he think healthcare should be right. I don’t think one could say that this is an attack or an attempt to broker fear from the public.
Is there any reason you censored my comments in this thread? I was very careful to support my argument with facts, and I made no ad hominem remarks, which is a lot more than I can say for many folks you let post here.
Of course the difference with them is that they agree with you, and I don’t.
I’m sorry, that was my mistake. You’ve left my comments as I wrote them – I mistook this for another article.
My apologies for an inaccurate and totally unsupported accusation. I should have paid closer attention, and the fault is entirely my own.
Now the Democratic platform is fear itself.
Oh? That statement would more accurately describe the campaign whose website spends more time trashing the opponent than describing the position; the campaign that constantly plays on fears of terror all the while failing to actually solve the problem; the campaign that constantly expoits American unease to manipulate public policy.
In other words, it describes GOP campaigning perfectly. It’s not fear or hatred to point out that Bush’s actions haven’t made us safer, reduced terror, or put money in the pockets of anyone but the folks who already had more than their fair share. It’s not “anti-Bush” to point out that he’s the wrong man for the job.
But, you know, whatever. I notice you had no response to my rebuttal of your main point.
Except for that fact that there hasn’t been a single successful terrorist attack on this country since September 11 (but a whole host of failed ones – thanks in large part to the new provisions of the PATRIOT Act). Unlike the previous administration, Osama bin Laden is in a cave rather than building a mansion in Kandahar and plotting his next attack. Are we safer now than we were before? Absolutely. It’s better to understand that there is a threat out there and deal with it rather than continue to live in ignorance as we did throughout the 1990s.
There have been over 1 million new jobs created in the past near – one of them being mine. I sure as hell wasn’t getting “more than my fair share” and the other million like me probably weren’t either.
And of course, that leads to the larger point. Exactly who the hell do you think you are to dictate what anyone’s “fair share” should be? That’s the whole problem with the arrogance of the left these days. Neither you nor the government have the right to argue the worth of anyone’s work. It is the height of arrogance to sit around and say that the small business owner that provides 50% of American jobs, pays good benefits, and tries to give back the community should be punished for their success.
Neither you nor the government have the right to argue the worth of anyone’s work.
No, but as a member of a democractic republic, I have the right to observe members of society, examine the level of public services they freely take advantage of, and offer my opinion about their responsibility for those services.
Bill Gates can call the governor of Washington any time he likes, and when something’s taken from his home, that’s Job No. 1 for the Redmond police. Me, I get to add paper to Tim Pawlenty’s circular file and I have about fuck-all chance of getting police interest in a crime committed against my person unless I can hand them the perp tied up in a bow.
If Bill Gates decides Microsoft won’t pay taxes, it doesn’t. When I decide that the IRS crawls up my ass and redecorates. It’s lunacy to suggest that the rich don’t enjoy considerably superior access to public services and resources. That is, after all, why we say “celebrity justice.” What’s more American than asking someone who gets more to pay more?
Still haven’t addressed the numbers, I see. When are you guys gonna come to your senses? Bush is done. He’s gone. He’d better be using the White House laser printers to make some nice resumes, because that’s a perk he’s not gonna have for long.