What’s interesting is that the same polls that show rising disaffection with the war in Iraq shows that Bush is either neck-and-neck with John Kerry or slighly ahead. the CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll finds that Bush maintains a very slight lead over Kerry and the issue of Iraq seems to be providing Kerry with little traction. Bush is still seen as the better Commander-in-Chief by a margin well outside the margin of error. (51% for Bush 43% for Kerry)
Powerline also notes that the latest FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Bush ahead outside the margin of error. The poll found that the good economic news is boosting Bush’s numbers in key battleground states as well. This also coincides with a recent Harris poll that showed Bush with a 10% lead in a 3-way race with Nader. (Although the Harris poll does seem to be a statistical outlier).
Based on all the current polls, the only one that shows a significant problem for Bush is the Washington Post/ABC News poll. That poll did have a slight oversampling of Democrats (38% Democrat to 30% Republican) that may explain why it showed different results from all the subsequent polls.
What this means for the President is that he’s very narrowly ahead of John Kerry. The economy is a major boost for Bush and Iraq is a major drag. However, voters tend to vote their pocketbooks, and there are two trends working in Bush’s favor: if the economy continues to improve voters tend to reward the incumbant, and Kerry himself is a virtual non-factor. Kerry is in many ways the Democrat’s Bob Dole, an uninspiring candidate being driven solely by partisan anger, but unable to elucidate an alternative strategy against the incumbant.
This election is going to be close regardless of what happens, but despite the unending array of bad news, Bush continues to maintain his narrow lead against Kerry.
A Fox News poll puts Bush ahead? Boy, that’s a shock.
What’s interesting is that the same polls that show rising disaffection with the war in Iraq shows that Bush is either neck-and-neck with John Kerry or slighly ahead. the CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll finds that Bush maintains a very slight lead over Kerry
How do you come to that conclusion from these numbers? The Gallup polling clearly shows Kerry tied or in the lead. Moreover the poll also shows a majority of Americans disappove of the President’s job performance.
It’s mind-boggling that you could look at those numbers and see a lead for Bush. But then, that’s just the sort of cognitive dissonance I’ve come to expect from conservatives.
Actually these numbers are really interesting. Jay, you should read them. On one hand, Bush leads in the number of people who think he can’t handle the responsibilities of being President. Yet he also leads the number of people who trust him to handle the responsibilities.
Most people still think that all in all, the war in Iraq was worth it. Yet a majority of people think that sending troops was a mistake.
If anything these numbers prove one person right – Michael Moore. From these numbers I conclude that indeed, Americans are idiots. 😉
The economy is a major boost for Bush and Iraq is a major drag.
Sorry to multi-post but once again, Jay shows he can’t read a chart: 53% of those surveyed tursted Kerry to handle the economy, vs. 40% for Bush.
The Gallup poll shows Bush at 49% to Kerry’s 48%, which is still within the margin of error, but also confirming other polls that show a very narrow Bush lead.
This, after Kerry has outspend the President by a considerable margin.
There’s only a limited utility to polling this far out, but the numbers show that Kerry has spent much for no gain in the polls, Bush is either neck and neck or has a very slight lead. You can say all you want that Kerry is really ahead, that Bush will never win, etc, etc, but that doesn’t make it true.
The numbers do not indicate a trend towards any candidate at this time.
The Gallup poll shows Bush at 49% to Kerry’s 48%
Sure, among likely voters.
Among registered voters, it’s 49 to 45 in Kerry’s favor, and among national adults, it’s 48 to 46 in Kerry’s favor. A majority of Americans disapprove of the President.
How is that good news for Bush, exactly?
The numbers do not indicate a trend towards any candidate at this time.
Certainly not the way you read, I guess.