Kerry’s post-convention poll “bounce” was a paltry 4 points in the latest Newsweek poll. (Note that the Newsweek poll tends to show a greater Kerry lead than other polls.) I wouldn’t predict that Kerry would get more than 7-10 points, and it seems like he got even less than that prediction.
If Bush can do better – which seems quite likely, it looks like this could be the beginning of the end for John Kerry. My unscientific gut instinct says that Kerry is toast – but then again, there’s a long time before November and Bush could screw things up. Bush has a chance to expose how horrendously out of touch Kerry is with the post-September 11 world and how his values are the values of the liberal elite rather than mainstream America. It’s clear from his medicore convention speech that Kerry has a major problem reaching beyond his base – if Bush can exploit that, he can win.
