International Relations

The Coming War?

In Russia, two aircraft have fallen from the sky in what is likely to be a terrorist attack. The two Tupolev airliners departed for Moscow and disappeared for radar within minutes of each other. The wreckage of one aircraft has been located in the Tula province south of Moscow. One aircraft is believed to be down somewhere near the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. Around 100 are believed to have been killed.

The chances of two aircraft departing from the same airport being destroyed within minutes of each other is astronomically slim. The most plausible explanation is a terrorist attack on the aircraft. The Russian province of Chechnya, long a site where Islamic militants, some of whom are linked to al-Qaeda, have been fighting in a long and bloody war over the province. Acts of terrorism including bombings are common.

There is also the crisis between Russia and George in which Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has been warnng about the possibility of war with Russia over Russia’s perported ties with separatist groups operating out of the South Ossetia region of Georgia.

It seems quite likely that this is a terrorist attack, although as of yet there have been no official claims of responsibility and no official determination of what happened. However, given the situation in Russia with the looming elections in Chechnya, the ongoing violence, and the timing of these events, it’s the logical conclusion. Given the already unstable oil market, a conflict between Russia and Chechnya or Russia and Georgia could have worldwide consequences.

6 thoughts on “The Coming War?

  1. This is actually quite disturbing. As noted, the odds are that this is a terrorist attack, and simultaneous bombings/attacks are a trademark of Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-associated groups.

    Another reminder of what a dangerous world we live in, and how we cannot afford a weak person like Kerry as president during this time…

  2. Disturbing indeed. This comes just a day after Putin backed another autocrat in the Chechen Presidential election. Putin’s last yes man in Chechnya, Akhmad Kadyrov, was blown up in a terror attack.

    Let’s not forget though that in Chechnya we also have terrorist groups that are simply Chechen nationalist and not Islamic. Radical Nationalists and Islamists terrorists are competing to see who gets the province. Chechen terrorist (of the non-islamic variety) launched an attack in grozny last weekend. Atleast 250 paramiltaries were involved.

    As for Georgia what a mess.. the South Ossetians and Abkhazians both want independance for their tiny nations and there have also been reports Armenian mercenaries may be involved in Georgia helping those groups.

    There were atleast 6 Armenian mercenaries working with South African warlord Nick du Toit and his gang of disaffected Afrikaner mercenaries in the recent attempt to overthrow the president of Ecquitorial Guinea, so it wouldn’t surprise me if some Armenian mercenaries made it to West Africa, others weren’t working closer to home as well.

    However.. this recent incident is likely Chechen related, and whether it was the nationalists or islamists who did it, it really doesn’t matter. It’s a bad sign and Putin’s response is likely going to worsen things.

  3. “whether it was the nationalists or islamists who did it, it really doesn’t matter”

    Putting all terrorists in the same bag is stupid. They all shouldn’t be called terrorists anyway. Chechnya wanting its independance is only fair, and the massacre of the population by drunken russian soldier is one of the saddest thing in this world.

    I thought that Americans could remember that they once were called “terrorists” by an imperialist power, and raised their guns for their right to independance…

    Acting and saying things like that is just building Al-Quadea stronger, but you probably won’t realize it before something really bad happens.


  4. Vincent-

    There are peacefcul nationalist parties in Chechnya that don’t want anything to do with the terrorist guerrillas. I will support them, but not support violent thugs who shot down planes.

    Whoever shot down these planes had no regard for human life and no regard for genuine politics. If either one of the groups who did this was instrumental in founding a state, it surely wouldn’t be anything better than a fascist state that used force to suppress dissent.

    I am no apologist for Putin’s minyons and his policies in the region. However I believe all the terrorist groups are a stain on legitimate Chechen nationalist aspirations.

  5. Vincent-

    One other thing, I have never uttered the mantra “kill all terrorists.” While I certainly don’t endorse appeasement of the proxies of gunmen (such as Tony Blair and David Trimble engaged in with the brownshirts of IRA/Sinn Fein), I don’t advocate murdering all terrorists. Preferably I would like to see the rigorous application of the law and trials which would put these men behind bars. So please call off your straw man argument.

    I stand by what I said, it doesn’t matter who did this and what their aims were, because the end result is one of pure evil, of death and destruction. No matter which groups pursue political aims by such hideous and anti-democratic methods they deserve the strongest condemnation.

    Of course your government is not willing to do that, look at Paris’s refusal to cut EU aid to representatives of modern day nazis such as Hamas.

  6. Chechnya wanting its independance is only fair

    They had their de facto independence till they chose to attack Russia (in Dagestan) in August of 1999.

    and the massacre of the population by drunken russian soldier is one of the saddest thing in this world.

    Way to stereotype! Two can play this game. How about:

    the massacre of the population murderous, islamic, head cutting Chechens by drunken russian soldier is one of the saddest thing in this world

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