Enjoy it while it lasts. The bad news just keeps coming from Iraq, the military records, massive Medicare premium spikes and lackluster job growth. I didn’t believe the electorate was fluid enough this year to swing as much as they did for Bush in recent polls. The bad news for Bush is that they can swing right back, and very likely will if Iraq continues to breed disaster and the morning light of reality hits the eyes of Americans enamored with the fiction of his convention speech. Who knows whether the military records controversy will stick or not? It’s at least as big of a story as a bunch of Texas Republicans accusing John Kerry of not earning his medals. If people buy that, they could just as easily believe the much more likely scenario that Bush family cronies went to great lengths to conceal his years of reckless Guard duty.
Another interesting nugget I just learned about one of the polls showing a double digit Bush lead (Newsweek) is that it manipulated voter party affiliation figures. The Newsweek poll took a sample of 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats, and 31% independents. This is not representative of national party affiliation in 2000 or more recently. In 2000, 39% affiliated with the Democrats, 36% Republicans and 26% independents. A 2002 survey I saw showed 34% Dems, 33% GOP, and 33% independents. Seems to me that at least Newsweek was manufacturing their own headlines with manipulated polling samples, and I’m now suspicious that the others may have done the same to heat the race up with a “Bush poll bounce.” There’s no other logical reason why Newsweek would distort its polling sample so egregiously.
I will be closely watching how the media services handle the Texas for Truth group that have recently hit the scene. If there isn’t a bias in the media, I expect we’ll be seeing the same treatment to these guys that the Swiftvets got.
I also don’t think the current leads will hold once the debates start. I think with so many people, like myself, actually paying attention to the electoral process this year, a strong debate showing would translate into a bump in the polls. I’m hoping this election isn’t as controversial as the last one. We need to come together more as a nation.
I do think things are going to shift much until then. I’m still looking for good information about what each candidates plans to do in the next four years. Does anyone have good links to that kind of info?
Enjoy it while it lasts. The bad news just keeps coming from Iraq, the military records, massive Medicare premium spikes and lackluster job growth. I didn’t believe the electorate was fluid enough this year to swing as much as they did for Bush in recent polls. The bad news for Bush is that they can swing right back, and very likely will if Iraq continues to breed disaster and the morning light of reality hits the eyes of Americans enamored with the fiction of his convention speech. Who knows whether the military records controversy will stick or not? It’s at least as big of a story as a bunch of Texas Republicans accusing John Kerry of not earning his medals. If people buy that, they could just as easily believe the much more likely scenario that Bush family cronies went to great lengths to conceal his years of reckless Guard duty.
Another interesting nugget I just learned about one of the polls showing a double digit Bush lead (Newsweek) is that it manipulated voter party affiliation figures. The Newsweek poll took a sample of 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats, and 31% independents. This is not representative of national party affiliation in 2000 or more recently. In 2000, 39% affiliated with the Democrats, 36% Republicans and 26% independents. A 2002 survey I saw showed 34% Dems, 33% GOP, and 33% independents. Seems to me that at least Newsweek was manufacturing their own headlines with manipulated polling samples, and I’m now suspicious that the others may have done the same to heat the race up with a “Bush poll bounce.” There’s no other logical reason why Newsweek would distort its polling sample so egregiously.
I will be closely watching how the media services handle the Texas for Truth group that have recently hit the scene. If there isn’t a bias in the media, I expect we’ll be seeing the same treatment to these guys that the Swiftvets got.
I also don’t think the current leads will hold once the debates start. I think with so many people, like myself, actually paying attention to the electoral process this year, a strong debate showing would translate into a bump in the polls. I’m hoping this election isn’t as controversial as the last one. We need to come together more as a nation.
I do think things are going to shift much until then. I’m still looking for good information about what each candidates plans to do in the next four years. Does anyone have good links to that kind of info?
http://www.johnkerry.com/ (John Kerry)
http://www.agendaforamerica.com/ (President Bush)