The good news keeps rolling in for the Kerry campaign, as the latest Gallup poll in Wisconsin shows Bush with a commanding lead:
The newest poll should hearten Republicans. President Bush holds a lead of 8 percentage points among likely voters and a lead of 4 points among the larger group of registered voters.
The week before the Republican National Convention in New York City, Bush held a 3-percentage point lead over his challenger Kerry. Now, that lead has ballooned to 8 points.
His edge is within the poll’s margin of error. But the momentum in the state in Bush’s direction â€” and the fact he has gotten over the 50% threshold â€” is troubling to Democrats. They figure Kerry probably must hold Wisconsin if he is to win the election.
Actually, according to the results of the poll Bush’s lead is just outside the margin of error. With likely voters he leads by 8%, and the margin of error is 5% on that particular poll.
Indeed, Kerry can virtually not win if he loses Wisconsin – because if Wisconsin goes, Ohio will likely go, and Florida is becoming redder by the moment. As Time magazine notes, Kerry’s electoral battlefield has dramatically shifted from 20 states to only 10. Remember that Bush wins if he does nothing more than win the states he did in 2000. If he takes Wisconsin, even a loss in Colorado won’t matter to him. If he takes Pennsylvania, well, in that case it’s all over for Kerry.
Does this mean Bush is a lock at this point? Abso-freakin’-lutely not. There are nearly two months left in the game. Things can happen. Iraq is not in good shape and our idiotic decision to leave Fallujah alone is biting us in the ass once again (as I and many others said it would). The economy is stabilizing and appears to be giving Kerry less and less traction, but things could change. The Democrats are certain to ramp up their smear campaign against the President as they become increasingly desperate.
On the other hand, the doldrums of early August are gone for the Bush campaign. The Bush lead is undeniable, and the electoral map now dramatically favors the President. States that should have been safe for Kerry like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are up for grabs, while swing states like Ohio and West Virginia are now safe Bush states.
There’s a not for Republicans to be optimistic about. However, it’s not victory time yet. It’s absolutely critical for every Republican to get to the polls on November 2nd and support the President. The future of this nation depends on strong leadership in the war against terrorism. Getting out the vote is critical to ensuring that our country stays on the right track – especially in battleground states like Wisconsin.