I was just running my latest electoral prediction when I noticed that Stephen Green has the same prediction that I did state-by-state. This is the first time it’s looked like either candidate could break 300 electoral votes. I do believe that this is the low water mark for Kerry and probably the high water mark for Bush. I’m doubtful that Bush will win in New Hampshire or Iowa, but it isn’t impossible either.
One thing that is increasingly clear is that the Kerry campaign is becoming more and more screwed as time goes on. I think the current strategy of turning Iraq into Vietnam II is a terrible one (see how well it worked for Dean), and that Kerry’s mishmash of advisors are steering him straight into electoral oblivion. Kerry is running out of time to turn this thing around, and he must perform well in the debates. However, Kerry’s numbers seem to go down the more he’s seen, so I’m not sure even that can save him at this point. It’s still far too premature to declare this race a fait accompli, but Kerry now has an even larger hill to climb than he did at the beginning of the month. Bush’s convention bounce is nearly two weeks old, and hasn’t receded all that much. The Democratic-leaning Zogby poll has Bush up by several points, and the Democrats are already seeing the writing on the wall.
Kerry has a reputation is a solid debater and a good performer in the last few weeks of a campaign. The question is now: is that enough or would it take a miracle (or a disaster) to keep Kerry from joining his former boss in the Massachusetts liberal Hall of Shame?