…well, unless you work for the Kerry campaign.
CNN’s latest analysis of the Electoral College shows a Bush blowout with 301 electoral votes to Kerry’s 237. Unlike the popular vote, the electoral vote tends to be somwhat stable, and all the trends have Bush leading in key states and Kerry frantically trying to staunch the electoral bloodletting. Kerry’s sudden conversion into a craggy and unlikable Howard Dean seems to be a last-ditch attempt to rally the base in what the Kerry team must know is an increasingly unwinnable battle.
It’s too early to call the election, there are still debates and last-minute smear attempts, but unless Kerry gets a miracle, I don’t see a large chance of him undoing the damage. It couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of people either…
A 301-237 EC margin is a blowout? I suppose in comparison to the 2000 election, but certainly not historically. Nixon beat Humphrey by less than one percent in the popular vote but nearly doubled him in the electoral vote.
Aside from that, you’re really setting yourself up to eat crow by repeatedly pretending this is election eve and the current state of the polls will have any bearing on what happens on November 2. I notice this electoral model comes from CNN, who piggybacks on Gallup’s laughably dysfunctional polls which artificially assume a 7-point GOP registration gap…the same gap that exists in the state of South Dakota. If you believe America at large is as Republican as South Dakota, then Gallup is definitely your pollster of choice. Speaking of voter registration, the New York Times had a report this week about the soaring number of registered Democrats in both Ohio and Florida, compared with the stagnant number of registered Republicans. The only thing stopping both of these states from being slam-dunks for Kerry is that these misleading polls from Gallup and others are likely to be self-fulfilling prophecies, keeping disillusioned Dems at home because of how horrible the polls look, at least in the alternate dimension where 40% of Americans are Republicans and 33% are Democrats. The only chance Bush has at winning this thing is if pollsters continue to manipulate their samples to favor Republicans.
Gee, a sudden and drastic influx of Democratic voters followed by an invesigation into massive voter fraud… one would almost think the Democrats were trying to steal an election they couldn’t win on their own…