Based on the latest round of polling, here’s the latest analysis of the state of the Electoral College race. President Bush retains his momentum, with only one state that he won in 2000 moving towards the Kerry camp. In the swing states of Iowa and Wisconsin, Bush has maintained a considerably larger lead than I would have thought possible. Ohio remains strongly in the Bush camp, but Florida could be much closer – although the hurricanes have made polling exceptionally difficult.
Pennsylvania remains nominally in the Kerry camp, but it is still up for grabs and the President has a shot at swinging the Keystone State into his corner. If that happens, Kerry’s toast.
The Electoral College vote under this scenario is Bush 291 – Kerry 247. Bush can lose Iowa and Wisconsin and still win the electoral vote. At this stage Kerry remains on defense and that’s not the position one wants to be in a month before Election Day. The debates will be crucial for many swing voters, and Kerry simply must hit it out of the park in order to win. Given some of the internals in the latest round of polls, Kerry is in serious, perhaps critical trouble. Of course, the GOP will have to combat the massive Democratic voter fraud through groups like America votes – which is why even though Kerry’s campaign is sputtering every Republican should treat this race like Bush is five points behind. In a free and fair vote, Bush would win by a good margin. However, 527s like America Votes are ensuring that won’t happen – which is why it remains imperative for Republicans to go to the polls and make sure to take every Bush voter they can find who hasn’t already voted with them.
More bad news for Bush….
The latest Gallup Poll (!) shows Kerry up by four among registered voters in the state of Ohio. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead by a mere two points. When even Gallup polls show Bush is losing ground, you know it’s serious!
Seriously though, the battleground map is pointless for the next 24 hours. If Kerry bombs in the debate, I’ll be inclined to agree with the above map. However, most swing voters are simply waiting for something….anything….from Kerry that projects him a worthy alternative to Bush, who they are not particularly fond of. If Kerry can do that tomorrow night or at any point in the next month, Bush’s house of cards will tumble. HOnestly, this electoral map looks considerably better than the one Gore was looking at a month before the 2000 election. There was a point in October where Gore was worried about losing California, yet he went on to win that state by double digits, not to mention the national popular vote. Kerry has far less ground to make up against a far more polarizing opponent than the one Gore faced four years ago. Of course, a major foul-up by Kerry erases everything. He’s still very vulnerable, but poised for victory if he pull off only a couple inspirational moments. In other words, pucker up Teresa. 🙂
Even if Gallup’s results in Ohio are correct and Kerry pulls off an upset in Ohio (which is not going to happen), Bush still wins with 271 Electoral College votes.
Not so fast there, Reding. Even if we are to assume the longshot prospect of this battleground map (with Ohio going Kerry just for giggles) holding until Election Day, you’re forgetting one key component that will steal at least three electoral votes from Bush like a thief in the night. That component is the wildly popular electoral vote splitting proposal in Colorado which is poised to pass by a huge majority if current polls hot. In other words, even if Kerry loses Colorado, he still wins. 🙂
Actually, if we take Gallup as being accurate, Bush wins Pennsylvania and it all becomes moot anyway.
I don’t think Colorado will pass Amendment 26. Ensuring that they end up becoming politically irrelevant in every Presidential election to elect John Kerry isn’t a smart choice for the people of Colorado.
According to electoral-vote.com the following states are 10 states for a total of 130 electoral votes that are up for grabs. If you consider soft states then there are about 24 states for a total of 279 electoral votes that might be swayed one way or another in the coming weeks. Clearly its anybody’s game.
But if you’re considering projections, the statisical analysis does show a blow out. The result shown is still noisey, so please don’t take it definitely. I think it once mid-October comes around, it will become more credible.
Chris: Holy crap! I’d not seen that before.
Certainly the race will tighten in the coming weeks, although if Kerry bombs in this debate he’s toast. Still, I have to admit being quite pleased to see the country awashed in red… 🙂
Jay, why is that Gallup’s numbers can be trusted in Pennsylvania but not Ohio? Honestly, I’m not putting too much stock in the Ohio poll, although a Bush lead of two among likely voters is plausible. Beyond that, Gallup has lost virtually all credibility this election season with wildly manipulated polls several points more Republican than anybody else. My guess is that CNN divorces themselves from Gallup Polls after this election cycle given that they’re so far from reality. CBS News is most likely sighing in relief that CNN is taking the heat off of them credibility wise by continuing to report on laughably erroneous poll numbers.
The poll I saw about Colorado Electoral Vote splitting showed substantial support. It’ll be bad for the system long-term if Colorado voters decide in favor of this initiative and I’d be hard-pressed to vote for it even though it would benefit Dems in the state. However, there is nothing more important to this country than unseating George Bush, so if it helps achieve that end, I have no short-term quarrel with the proposal.
As for ElectoralVote.com, I wouldn’t get too excited about it. It shows Bush doing better in Maryland and Wisconsin than he is in Alabama. Suddenly, Zogby Interactive’s two-month long Kerry lead in Tennessee seems downright believable.
It should also be said that electoral-vote.com is a composite ever many different polls (Including Zogby, Gallup, and Rasmussen). So the mixed signals can lead to added noise. From their main page there should be link to go to polls done by specific pollsters. That’s the best way to see an accurate picture of how things are going. Compare different polls done by the same pollster. It reduceds the number of measured variables that way.