It’s looking like John Thune is doing well against the Lizard King of the Senate Tom Daschle in South Dakota. The latest Rassmussen poll has Thune ahead 50 to 46 aganst Daschle. Even more promisingly, Zogby has Thune down by 2.3 points.
Wait you say, why am I celebrating a poll where Thune is down?
It’s because if you’re down in the Zogby poll by less than 10 points in South Dakota, you’re probably ahead. A Zogby poll for the recent special election in June showed Larry Diedrich trailing Stephanie Herseth by double digits. Zogby’s polling in South Dakota is about as accurate as chicken entrails, and nearly always massively overstates the lead for the Democrats. If Zogby only has Thune trailing by 2.3 points against Daschle, he’s probably ahead.
Thune’s latest ad campaign featuring the voices of average South Dakotans is an excellent campaign and may be moving his numbers. Certainly Thune’s team has been active in getting signs in yards and doors knocked – which is a sign of a healthy campaign infrastructure. The Daschle/Thune race is one of the hottest races in 2004 for the Senate, and it’s looking like the days of Daschle’s domination of South Dakota politics may just be coming to an end…
Lizard King? Tom Daschle is Jim Morrison of the Doors?
Back in the days when Rasmussen polls were the only ones showing Kerry leading in Ohio about three weeks ago, you called them “worthless.” Meanwhile, you held up Zogby’s Interactive polls showing Bush up by 11 in Ohio as a trophy. Yet now, you’d like us to believe the Rasmussen polls are trustworthy but Zogby is the enemy? Jay, you can only get away with such stunts with people who have much shorter memories than myself. I’m always gonna call you on your many inconsistencies.
As for the real-world situation in the South Dakota Senate, I’d consider it way too close for anyone to have a serious read on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thune ends up getting it, but solid turnout on Indian reservations could easily make the difference for Daschle. I never expected the 11-point Herseth lead would materialize on June 1. Ultimately, special elections favor Republicans, and many Herseth supporters likely stayed home because they thought she had it in the bag. Even if the Democrats lose this one, they may still be able to take over the Senate if they pick up seats in the races where they’re currently leading, including Colorado, Alaska, Illinois and Oklahoma.
Zogby’s South Dakota state polls are worthless based on their track record. Their national polling is considerably better (although Zogby is one of the pollsters who applies an artificial partisan balance to their polls).