The latest batch of polls are out, and once again the results are all over the map. Fox has Bush up by 2, while ARG has the race tied at 46%. However, the latest batch of polls are weekend polls that were conducted shortly after Bush’s disastrous debate performance. By all logic, he should be down in those polls.
What these polls show overall is that A:) there is a much volitility in this race, B:) even after a disastrous performance Kerry can’t get much momentum and C:) the internals still favor Bush. Even after getting trounced in the debates, Bush still leads on leadership characteristics, terrorism, homeland security, and Iraq. Kerry’s made up some ground, but Bush’s leads still remain high on all these issues. Kerry benefitted from appearing more Presidential, but it doesn’t appear as though his policies led to any significant gains on the issues.
It’s clear that the race has tightened, which is typical for October. However, the electoral picture doesn’t appear to have changed much. Bush still has a lead in the electoral horserace, and so far states such as Wisconsin and Iowa appear to be more or less in play. In the state of Iowa a University of Minnesota poll shows a narrow Kerry lead of only one point. Remember that all Bush needs to do is play defense and he wins. Kerry has to pick up every state that Gore won in 2000 plus poach one Bush state as well. With Kerry playing defense in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico, he’s going to have a very difficult time doing that. Even states like Nevada which seemed precariously balanced now appear to be shifting to the red (PDF link) even after the debates.
It all comes down to getting out the vote. The Republican GOTV efforts have been tested in 2000 and 2002 and have been phenomenal in getting Republican voters to the polls. The only poll that really matters in the end will be held on November 2nd, and that’s why it remains imperative that Republicans get every Republican they can find to the polls. The Democrats will try to steal the election, and are inundating Secretaries of State in swing states with floods of fraudulent ballots in order to try and shift this election. As I’ll say every day until Election Day – if it isn’t close, they can’t cheat.
