The latest AP/Ipsos poll shows a significant Kerry lead. Of course, Ipsos hasn’t released their internals, which instantly sets up a red flag and The Kerry Spot is asking questions about the reliability of the poll. Personally, I think that the AP poll oversampled Democrats by a hugh margin, and the rest of the polls that show a narrow lead for Bush are more accurate. Any time you get a large number of polls saying one thing and one or two saying another, it’s pretty clear which one should be treated with a jaundiced eye.
All in all, it is clear that the race is very tight now. Bush’s lead has certainly shrunk thanks to his abysmal debate performance and the popular verdict on the Kerry/Edwards debate is split. The next few weeks will be crucial, as they always are. However, if after such a disastrous performance Bush can eke out a narrow lead it says a lot about this race. In the end, all the other factors in this race tend to support Bush. Those 9/11 Democrats are still out there as they always have been, and I think Kerry’s in for the Dean factor. Remember all those young voters who were out there door-knocking for Dean in Iowa all winter? They didn’t get enough people to the polls to make a difference. It’s one thing to have a slick campaign. It’s entirely another to win. I’m inching closer to making a final prediction about this race (probably not for another week or two at the earliest though), and while Kerry has closed the gap, he has yet to seal the deal with the American electorate. The Democrats may be getting cocky, but I’m still betting they won’t be so cocky on November 3rd.
You’ve gotta be kidding. All those times I questioned the poll results you were touting showing huge Bush leads generated by 7-point GOP party affiliation advantages in their samples, I was either ignored, ridiculed, or lectured about the “changing voter” who is now aligned with the Republican Party. Yet the first sign of poll numbers that don’t conform with your perception of how the race “should be going” and you’re crying foul about Democratic oversampling. Could it be that after the last two debate blowouts, the American voter is changing and is simply more Democratic????
By the way, I’ll have final predictions of my own when the time comes. We’ll see who’s closer.
Again, partisan ID changes over time. It doesn’t shift by 10 points overnight. Zogby and others are using partisan balances based on the 2000 election – figures which don’t reflect the last four years.
Jay is your site working. I can’t the the post I sent.
It got caught in the moderation queue for some reason…
“all the other factors in this race tend to support Bush”.
The only good news I see is the good figure for job creation this month. The rest of the story is full black for Bush:
-Rumsfeld: no Irak-Al Quaeda link
-Duelfer: no WMDs
-Bremer: no good plan in the first place
-Annan: no legality
-CIA: no stabilisation (civil war at the corner)
That’s been a hard week for convinced republicans. Looking at all these news coming up at the same time, added to the poor performances of Bush/Cheney in debates, a 10 points shift overnight is not impossible.
Just a word on the debate, I have read a very interesting study on “body language” during these debates by several specialized doctors. They noticed how Bush was hiding his hands when answering on Irak, and Cheney when answering on Halliburton (your hands represent yourself when you speak). Has anyone read it too? Great stuff!