The latest Gallup poll has Kerry up by a point, 49-48.
However, it’s one of those famous weekend polls, which nearly always show weaker positions for Republicans. The reasons for this are based in demographics: Republicans tend to be more rural, have families, and be regular churchgoers – which means that Republicans are less likely to answer the phones and talk to a pollster for 20 minutes. Indeed, the internals of Gallup’s poll and previous weekend poll results have shown the same trends when compared with their other mid-week polls. Hopefully Gallup will run another poll mid-week as a point of comparison.
What this shows is that there appears to be a lot of volitilty in this race, and today’s poll numbers may or may not have an influence on what the actual situation is. Polls are only a tool for political scientists. They’re a scientific fa&ccedi;ade over what is basically an unscientific system – at the end of the day political science is somewhat of an oxymoron – you can’t be scientific about a system that’s inherently chaotic. What you can do is take data and draw inferences.
I still maintain that Bush will win. It’s still going to be close, but I don’t think it will be quite as close as some think. Our ally Down Under just showed that a race between a proponent of the Iraq war and an anti-war candidate that was supposed to have been down to the wire won’t necessarily turn out that way – given the similarlities between Australia and America, it’s only reinforcing my belief that the fundamental tenor of the electorate has changed due to September 11.
As I’ve said countless times before, and will again, the votes are what counts – which is why it remains even more imperative that every Republican work to get George W. Bush in the White House. I’m guessing that Gallup’s poll is off – but every Republican should be campaigning like Bush is 10 points behind.