I’m watching the Fox News team, and Mort Kondracke says that Bush won this debate. Bill Kristol says the same.
I think I know what’s going on here.
I blogged the debate. I wasn’t looking closely at the President. Perhaps there’s something I missed here. Let’s see what the instant reaction is to see if I was being too harsh on Bush here:
UPDATE: Okay, I should start predicting that Bush will lose, because the consensus seems to be that Bush won this debate. What I’m hearing on nearly all the networks is that Bush did very well, and I’ve not heard anyone who isn’t a Democrat say that Kerry won. What I’m hearing is that Kerry was on the defensive. I didn’t see that at all.
But on the other hand, if I’m wrong on this I will be quite happy to be wrong. I still think Bush will win (more on that later), and now that I’m seeing that my reaction was so much different than mine, I’m breathing much easier. I’m going to have to go back and rewatch this debate without worrying about the blog and see how my feelings change.
Spoons says everyone sucked. I’m inclined to agree here.
Ramesh Ponnuru says that this was Bush’s best debate performance and Kerry was even. Interesting.
At the big Northern Alliance shindig (wish I could have been there!) Captain’s Quarters says that the consensus is that Bush did well. Hell, maybe I’m complete off here and I should have trusted my spidey senses rather than playing debate judge.
The thing about Mary Cheney seems to be causing a lot of flack for Kerry – which is what it should be.
Kathryn Jean Lopez says that Bush did well, although didn’t hit it out of the park.
Mike Krempasky at Red State says this is a homerun for Bush.
Mary Beth Cahill seems very subdued – OK, folks, I’m going to issue a mea culpa here. For whatever reason, my analysis of the debate seems radically different from what *everyone* else is seeing. I was just about to declare Bush toast, and now I’m thinking this will either leave the race unchanged or perhaps help Bush.
If I’m gonna be wrong, I’m damn happy to be wrong about this. Call it a flip-flop if you will, but I’m rapidly becoming more sanguine about the results of tonight’s debate.
Rod Dreher also calls it a win for Bush.
I’ll be really curious to see what the polling on this is… shouldn’t be too long for the focus group reactions to come in. From what I’ve heard, I’m really out in Negative Land on this one – hey, it looks like Kerry and I do have something in common!
Jay,
I thought Kerry won the first debate hands-down. I think Bush won a narrow victory in Number 2. But tonight, I really think Bush won.
I think you were a little harsh, from what i read. I thought he did fantastic. I dont know everything about the economy or government, nor do i pretend too, and i think Geogre W. did great job explaining all of his points. Kerry on the other hand sounded like a broken record of criticism.
ABC’s instant poll, which samples 38% of Republicans compared to only 30% Democrats…..and the result was a 42-41 Kerry victory. At CBS, Kerry won 39-25 over Bush with 36% as a tie. CBS is monitoring only swing voters. This is devastating news for Bush.
One point in a snap survey is a disaster? A perception of a tie is a disaster?
Sorry, Mark, but that doesn’t fly.
If Bush gets ANY additional momentum, it will clearly help him. If he holds is own, he’s still ahead on the polls. Like before, all he had to do is keep his narrow lead. Everything I’ve heard says that he did that.
I’m willing to face up to reality when my perceptions are off. You should try it too.
Jay, the ABC poll consisted of 38% Republicans and only 30% Democrats. THat is not a representative sample. But even with this overrepresentation of Republicans, Kerry still bested Bush, if only by a point. CBS analysis of swing voters was more telling, giving Kerry 39%, Bush 26% and Tie 36%.
I am willing to admit I was wrong in the second debate. I thought Kerry was doing very badly, particularly in the first half hour….but the post-debate analysis suggested most thought it was a tie, slanted slightly to Kerry. I was wrong in underestimating America’s love affair with John Kerry, and I admit that. 🙂
Jay, I agreed with your assessment.
And Mark, it’d help if you provided links when you cite stuff like that.
Spoons, turn your TV to your local ABC affiliate and watch Nightline. They just showed specifics on their instant poll. 81% of Democratic respondents thought Kerry won while only 73% of Republicans thought Bush won. Interesting.
The instant reactions are less the worthless – especially when the DNC is issuing talking points to people telling them to spam online polls and tell pollsters they’re Republicans when they’re not.
The real numbers won’t be known for a while.