The latest round of Zogby polling shows something amazing. Nationally, Bush is up by three points. This isn’t earthshattering news, but A:) it’s a Zogby poll that measures far more Democrats than Republicans and B:) it’s a weekend sample which traditionally lowers Republican numbers. Why is Bush running so well?
About 5 percent of likely voters are still undecided heading into the final full week of the campaign, but Bush has opened a 12-point lead on Kerry among independents.
This is very bad news for the Kerry campaign. And while Zogby argues in the Reuters article that he doesn’t know how undecideds are breaking, an astute reader of the Kerry Spot notes him saying the following:
Pollster John Zogby: “Bush had a stronger single day of polling, leading Kerry 49% to 46%. For the first time, in the one-day sample Bush had a positive re-elect, 49% to the 48% who feel it’s time for someone new. Also in the one-day sample, Undecideds were only 4%. Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?
Yesterday, Zogby noted:
Pollster John Zogby: â€œAnother good single day of polling for President Bush. In todayâ€™s sample alone, he leads 50% to 43%â€”the first time weâ€™ve seen either candidate hit 50%. Each candidate continues to tighten his own constituency, and Undecided voters are now at only 4%
Consistant with that, Zogby’s polling finds Bush up by 5 in Ohio and 3 in Florida.
If Zogby is showing these kinds of results, I’m wondering what is going on here. The ABC/WaPo tracking poll is showing a tighter race than Zogby – which is a major reversal from the norm. If it’s true that undecideds are breaking for Bush, it’s good news for the President. Nor would it be particularly surprising. The CW that undecideds break for the challenger isn’t always true on the national level, and given that this is a wartime election there are a lot of people who aren’t fond of Bush’s domestic policies but simply can’t trust Kerry to defend this country.
I have a feeling that this last week of polling will show a break for the President, and if that’s true the President’s margin of victory could get bigger in the popular vote – and if Zogby is correct about Ohio and Florida Bush may be cementing a lock on the Electoral College as well. Then again, given how reliable Zogby’s state polling is, the Electoral College race is anyone’s guess at this point…