Michael Barone says that it just might be:
The Honolulu Advertiser noted that many Japanese-Americans in their poll said they were undecided, and that many Filipino-Americans were voting for Bush. Hawaii’s large military population may also account for this support of the incumbent president. The Advertiser: “‘I’m a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing,’ said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawaii Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. ‘He’s my commander-in-chief.'” The Star-Bulletin reported that Filipino-Americans favored Bush by a 56 to 36 percent margin and that half of Japanese-Americans and more than half of Native Hawaiians backed Bush; in other elections these groups almost always vote heavily Democratic.
It’s unlikely that both these polls are flukes. The only two earlier public polls in Hawaii showed the race far closer than in 2000: American Research Group had Kerry leading 51 to 41 percent in September and the Star-Bulletin had him leading 48 to 41 percent just after the Democratic National Convention. So it seems that Hawaii is really in play.
I’m skeptical, but this is emblematic of a larger trend – even in blue states Kerry’s numbers are not promising. The more I look, the more I’m confident of a Bush victory – a decisive one at that. It’s still crucial that Republicans flock to the polls to negate the Democrats’ plan to use fraud and legal tactics to steal the election, but there’s a lot to be hopeful about in the polls.
If states like Hawaii which have been bluer than Teresa Heinz Kerry’s blood for years are turning purple, what does that say about the prospects of this being a realigning election?
It’s funny how your optimism about Bush’s chances stand in direct contrast with Kerry’s blistering momentum in the polls of late. Things could still swing back Bush’s way, but I have yet to hear any discreditation of the Iraq explosives theft scandal except from you and a handful of other blogosphere Bush shills. You guys were right about Rather-gate (as you’re fond of saying, even a broken clock is right twice a day) so I won’t completely discount the charges, but until they gets mainstream validation it remains a non-story outside of Bush partisans who would vote for him even if he personally handed the explosives to the insurgents.
The Hawaii situation is a definite wake-up call, and hopefully one that Kerry can correct by running ads there this week. Even the poll showing Bush with a one-point lead, however, was only taken on Oahu, the least Democratic of the islands. There are a high number of undecideds, and I suspect the group most likely to be Democrat, the native Hawaiian islanders, were underrepresented in the polls. I expect Kerry to win here, but too narrowly for my comfort.
Blistering momentum? Set down the Kool-Aid! Kerry is ahead by one point in precisely one poll. The rest show Bush ahead by anywhere from 1 to 5 points. The President still leads in the RCP average by nearly 3. Last time I checked you don’t win an election by being nearly 3 points behind.
Watch CNN.
Jay, your cause would be helped if you could count. Kerry is ahead in two polls, Rasmussen and ABC/Washington Post…and is tied in the LA Times poll. Gallup’s likely voter model has become the laughing stock of the poll-watching community, but I guess if one is desperate enough, they can choose to swear by it. 🙂
More heartbreaking news for Bush…
ARG’s new state polls show Kerry leading in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Kerry looks poised to score the hat trick. Who needs Hawaii? 🙂
Despite the legacy media’s best attempts to make it so, the Al Qakaa explosives theft is hardly scandal-grade. It’s kind of hard to guard something that’s gone before you get there.
Even then, it looks like Miklaszewski didn’t get the memo to keep that story quiet until they could spring it as an October Surprise.
ARG has been a statistical outlier from the beginning. Their polls are worthless, and I wouldn’t put any faith in them.
And the RCP Average makes its it quite clear that Kerry’s “blistering momentum” is hardly blistering or momentum. The trendline for this race is exactly where I projected it would be…
Jay, ARG’s numbers have been in line with most other mainstream pollsters this season. They have leaned a little far to the left for Florida, but have been a little far to the right in New Hampshire. A couple of their other poll stats have been right-of-center as well. Do you really think Bush will get 62% in North Dakota this year with the sugar beet issue battering him bloody in the Red River Valley? As a whole, I would say ARG is the most believable pollster I’ve come across this year. Which of their state results do you consider so radically flawed?
It’s hard to take seriously someone who is betting the farm on Gallup’s likely voter model as being the only truth-teller when the house of cards is crumbling on Bush with the other mainstream pollsters.