Michael Barone says that it just might be:
The Honolulu Advertiser noted that many Japanese-Americans in their poll said they were undecided, and that many Filipino-Americans were voting for Bush. Hawaii’s large military population may also account for this support of the incumbent president. The Advertiser: “‘I’m a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing,’ said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawaii Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. ‘He’s my commander-in-chief.'” The Star-Bulletin reported that Filipino-Americans favored Bush by a 56 to 36 percent margin and that half of Japanese-Americans and more than half of Native Hawaiians backed Bush; in other elections these groups almost always vote heavily Democratic.
It’s unlikely that both these polls are flukes. The only two earlier public polls in Hawaii showed the race far closer than in 2000: American Research Group had Kerry leading 51 to 41 percent in September and the Star-Bulletin had him leading 48 to 41 percent just after the Democratic National Convention. So it seems that Hawaii is really in play.
I’m skeptical, but this is emblematic of a larger trend – even in blue states Kerry’s numbers are not promising. The more I look, the more I’m confident of a Bush victory – a decisive one at that. It’s still crucial that Republicans flock to the polls to negate the Democrats’ plan to use fraud and legal tactics to steal the election, but there’s a lot to be hopeful about in the polls.
If states like Hawaii which have been bluer than Teresa Heinz Kerry’s blood for years are turning purple, what does that say about the prospects of this being a realigning election?