Now it appears as though Zogby is not forecasting a Bush win afterall.
Personally, I think Zogby is full of it. No candidate picks up 5 points in a single day unless their opponent is caught in bed with an underage hooker or a horse or possibly an underage equine hooker. Zogby’s performance in 2000 was essentially blind luck – the stopped clock being right twice per day. His 2002 polls were less than worthless, and his methodology that applies an artificial partisan balance is laughable. Anyone who assumes that the partisan balance in this country hasn’t changed since 2000 is making a very big assumption – an assumption that is virtually guaranteed to be wrong.
Zogby’s own tracking polls show Bush tied with Kerry today, which certainly doesn’t indicate any major shift with undecided voters. Indeed, even with Zogby likely oversampling Democrats, Kerry can’t maintain any kind of solid lead outside the margin of error. By now if there was going to be any kind of major movement with undecided voters we’d be seeing it. Instead, they appear to be breaking either even or just slightly for Bush.
I’d take London’s odds long before I’d take John Zogby’s…