The election is in 3 days, and right now there’s a lot of reasons why Republicans should be cautiously optimistic. Right now if Bush takes Ohio, and it’s possible he will, he wins this race. It’s down to those last few states, and Bush is doing quite well in those races. That doesn’t mean it’s in the bag, which is why it’s absolutely necessary to help the President in this final push so that this country doesn’t end up with a repeat of the disastrous foreign and domestic policies of the Carter and Clinton years.
Remember also that the polls will show this being a close race. Weekend polls undersample Republicans – especially churchgoers who aren’t going to come to the phones during the weekends to spend 20 minutes talking to a pollster. The fact that the polls show Kerry and Bush even when we’re dealing with Republican oversampling should be an indication that this race is very much winnable.
Mason-Dixon was the closest pollster in 2002, getting it right in 22 out of 23 races. They have Bush up in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico. By their polls, Bush has 290 electoral votes at least – we can make that happen by getting every Republican to the polls on Election Day. It will happen because we know what the consequences of a Kerry win are.
Don’t trust the _Star-Tribune_ and _Des Moines Register_ polls. They’re politically motivated and always have been. Kerry is *not* up by 8 in Minnesota and he’s *not* up by 3 in Iowa. Those polls are designed to give the Democrats momentum. They’re not about accuracy or truthfulness. If Republicans get out and vote, Minnesota will go red and Iowa will follow. Even Wisconsin and Michigan can be in play if Republicans work to make it happen.
From what I’ve been hearing, undecideds are breaking for Bush. If you know a voter who is still undecided, now is the time to sit down and have a talk with them. Don’t try to push them, just lay out the facts. Remind them that Osama is still out there. Ask them this: if Osama ended up in Iran, would the UN let us attack? And if they said no, who would you trust to do what’s right? What is more important to the future of the United States: being popular with a group of companies that were in bed with Saddam Hussein or stopping terrorists before they strike? Show them the evidence.
Ask them who they trust more: John Kerry who says that we “outsourced” the capture of Osama bin Laden, or Tommy Franks, the general that actually commanded the mission. Ask them that if John Kerry felt so strongly about this, why did he praise what happened at Tora Bora at the time?
In other words, be Socratic with them. Ask them questions and get them to thinking. Thinking voters are Bush voters. And if they’re the type who have been so permeated with Bush hatred from the cicious left, they’re not going to be persuaded. You can’t argue someone into something rationally they never arrived at by rational means. Politely excuse yourself and move on.
The fate of this nation hangs in the balance. Had America chosen McClellan rather than Lincoln, history would have played out far differently than it did. Had America embraced the isolationism of the America First movement before World War II the world could have been ruined. Should America engage in a route that places symbolic and meaningless alliances with nations who place the façade of “international law” before true justice, we will face another September 11. Now is the time to ensure that America remains steadfast and resolute. Our enemies are waiting to pounce on any sign of indecision – we dare not grant them that wish. For the future of this country, we have an obligation to reelect President Bush. Victory is within our grasp – now let’s make it happen.
Jay Reding politicizing the Osama bin Laden tape for his party’s political benefit?!?!? Who could have seen that coming?!
The Des Moines Register poll showed Gore leading by two points in 2000. He won by 0.3%. That’s not too shabby in my opinion. I don’t understand where your hostility towards the Iowa Poll is coming from….other than the fact that their poll doesn’t jive with the outcome you desired. Kerry is picking up steam steadily in Iowa and has for the past week. His rally Saturday in Des Moines may have sealed the deal, but it’s too early to tell. Demographically, Iowa should be a slam-dunk for Kerry. It’s populist. It’s blue collar. It’s anti-war. The only surprise for me is that it’s as close as it is and Kerry isn’t winning by six or seven points.
If you want to trust the right-skewing Mason-Dixon polls as the ones who have it right, enjoy the Kool-Aid. Last time was the first time in four election cycles where undecideds broke heavily for the Republicans, so Mason-Dixon, for once, got it right. If turnout is as high as expected, the odds are strongly against a repeat performance validating Mason-Dixon’s biennial “Republicans rule the world” predictions.
I must confess to being scared shitless about the effect of the bin Laden tape on Kerry. Thus far, at least, the impact appears to be virtually nil…and in some dovish areas like the Upper Midwest, seems to have actually benefitted Kerry. I’m cautiously optimistic as you are of the opposite outcome you’re predicting.
Mason-Dixon got 22 out of 23 races correct in the last cycle. Their MOE from the actual results was 1.8%.
Furthermore, if the Democrats are naive enough to have completely failed to learn the lessons of 2002 in which the Democrats placed unions above national security, they not only will lose, but deserve to.
Unions over national security? I wasn’t even aware that was an issue this election cycle. Then again, I can’t blame you for wanting to stay stuck in 2002 considering how scary Halloween 2004 has been for the Bush campaign. Again, Mason-Dixon’s polls always predict GOP margins an average of three points to the right of everyone else. In an unusual year like 2002 where the undecideds break for the Republicans, the broken clocks at Mason-Dixon will be able to get it right. We’ll see if 2004 ends up that way, or if it turns out like 1996, 1998, and 2000 when undecideds broke for the donks.
Based on Rasmussen, Zogby, and the NYT/CBS poll, undecideds are breaking roughly even, with a slight favor to Bush.