Bush is outperforming the exit polls nearly everywhere, which is very good. Bush is ahead in Florida, although Broward and Palm Beach (heavily Democratic counties) haven’t been counted yet. However, Bush’s margins in Florida have increased since 2000, which is very good news for the President.
Bush has also pulled ahead in Ohio. If Florida and Ohio go towards Bush, that puts Kerry at a serious disadvantage. If Bush then wins another Midwestern state it will be over. Then again, that assumes that we’ll know the outcomes in states like Ohio and Florida tonight, which is never certain with all the variables such as lawsuits that could get in the way.
Also, the massive youth turnout that everyone and their dog was predicting didn’t happen based on exit polling – exactly as I’d been predicting.
More as the election continues…
