If the latest round of tracking polls is an indication, Bush should have a win tonight. CBS has Bush up by 2 against Kerry. Rasmussen has Bush breaking the 50% mark against Kerry. The Battleground Poll (my favorite from 2000 and a very well-done poll) has Bush ahead by 4. The GOP Terrance Group has Bush projected to win with 51.2% of the vote. TIPP also has Bush breaking 50%.
If these polls are correct in showing a last-minute surge for the President, this is very good news for today – we could be looking at Bush getting a small majority for the first time in a long time. Not since 1988 has a President recieved an outright electoral majority.
UPDATE: In absentee and early voting, President Bush goes into the race with a narrow lead in Ohio.
What Pennsylvania and Ohio. If PA goes red, Kerry is sunk. If Ohio stays in the Bush column, and so does Florida, Bush is very likely to get reelected. As I’ve said before, this election will largely come down to 5 states and 11 electoral votes – and I’d give the President a very strong chance at pulling that off.
Remember, get those Republicans to the polls. We can win this, and if it isn’t close the Democratic attempts at cheating won’t be enough to swing this election…
ABC News’ Republican analyst Mike Murphy didn’t go so far as to predict a Bush defeat last night, but conceded that indications didn’t look good at all. His head was hanging low. If turnout is as strong as early indicators suggest, Bush is sunk. The tracking polls seem to be up for Bush by a fraction of a percent each, but even if they’re accurate, high turnout will trump that nominal advantage. I get the feelings that alot of Republican hearts will be broken around 8:30 tonight when the battleground state numbers start becoming clearer.
Not so fast…..
The Harris Poll (both telephone and interactive) shows Kerry with momentum from yesterday. Maybe in 2008, Bush.
Some stellar calls there, Mark.
You sure nailed those.