I guess your crystal ball must have been steamed over when you predicted that Minnesota and Hawaii (!!) would go for Bush. Your irrational exuberance about Minnesota could be overlooked considering the state’s rightward shift, but what excuse could you possibly have for predicting Hawaii as Bush country other than an poll on Oahu only showing the race tied? Whatever clairvoyant powers you can claim for predicting a 51-48 popular vote margin are discounted by your premise that Hawaii would go Bush.
In my defense (and yes, it was an out-on-a-limb prediction), there was more than one poll showing a close race, and Cheney actually visited the state, something he would not have done if Hawaii wasn’t in play. Of course, as it turned out, Kerry won handily anyway.
Oahu, home to Honolulu and more than half of Hawaii’s population, was close. Kerry won it by less than three points. At least one of the two polls showing the race tied was taken only on Oahu. Luckily for Kerry (although it ultimately didn’t matter), he won the other three islands by more than 20 points, and ultimately won the state by more than eight points.
I guess your crystal ball must have been steamed over when you predicted that Minnesota and Hawaii (!!) would go for Bush. Your irrational exuberance about Minnesota could be overlooked considering the state’s rightward shift, but what excuse could you possibly have for predicting Hawaii as Bush country other than an poll on Oahu only showing the race tied? Whatever clairvoyant powers you can claim for predicting a 51-48 popular vote margin are discounted by your premise that Hawaii would go Bush.
In my defense (and yes, it was an out-on-a-limb prediction), there was more than one poll showing a close race, and Cheney actually visited the state, something he would not have done if Hawaii wasn’t in play. Of course, as it turned out, Kerry won handily anyway.
Oahu, home to Honolulu and more than half of Hawaii’s population, was close. Kerry won it by less than three points. At least one of the two polls showing the race tied was taken only on Oahu. Luckily for Kerry (although it ultimately didn’t matter), he won the other three islands by more than 20 points, and ultimately won the state by more than eight points.