Publius Pundit is all over the massive anti-Syrian protests in Beirut this morning, with independent estimates of crowd size of 1.3 million. Even if that estimate is inflated, this is one of the largest pro-democracy protests that has ever been seen in the region. Supporters of the murdered Prime Minister Rafik Hariri are demanding a Syrian pullout and an independent Lebanon.
It’s clear that the anti-Syrian sentiment in Lebanon is considerably strong, which probably explains why the Syrians are pulling back. The Hizb’Allah demonstration of a few days ago was large — by all accounts this one seems much larger. It is clear that the Lebanese people do not support the occupation of their country by Syrian troops. The fact that Syrian-backed President Emilie Lahoud reinstated former Prime Minister Omar Karami, another Syrian-backed figure, only excerbated the situation.
Interestingly enough, moderate Shi’ites are joining in this call for an independent Lebanon. Rumor has it that there is a large contingent of Shi’a who are following the example of Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq and embracing democratic change and free elections in South Lebanon. Rumor has it that a statue of Hafez Assad was pulled down in the southern Shi’ite site of Kana. That region is controlled by the Iranian-backed Hizb’Allah. If the Shi’a join the call for a Syrian withdrawl it will make things much more difficult for Lahoud and Assad.
If Lebanon becomes independent and throws off Syrian occupation, it will be a strong first step. However, it’s only the beginning of the journey for Lebanon. Lebanon is a highly factionalized country, with a myriad array of ethnic groups from Druze to Shi’a to Maronite Christians, each one with their own agendas and grudges. Keeping each of these factions together will take considerable will, and it would require a hypothetical free Lebanese government to provide the benefits currently being provided by factions like Hizb’Allah.
However, this massive protest is a sign that the old order in the Middle East is rapidly being swept away by the winds of change. The past weekend has seen the release of pro-democracy activist Ayman Nour in Egypt and now this massive demonstration in Beirut. The autocratic regimes of Hosni Mubarak and Bashar al-Assad must be quaking in their boots — and well they should.
UPDATE: Here are some amazing images of the demonstrations including the now-ubitquitous Hot Democracy Woman™ — not, of course, that I’m complaining about such things.
I am very glad to see this. Pan-Arab sentiment that fostered pro-Syrian ties brought no benefit to those who supported it. While it is likely that Hizbullah and the secular nationalist shi’ite Amal movement will be hard to sway, it’s good to see more moderate shi’ites embracing anti-Syrian sentiment. It is the Syrian endorsed Taif accord that massively underepresents them through gerrymandering afterall. It’s good to see that some shi’ites have finally found the plot to use a British expression.
I am also optimistic because the radical maronite groups such as the Lebanese Forces and Guardians of the Cedars continue to be fringe players.
I think a key thing now is to get the Greek Catholic and Greek Orthodox communities on board with a free Lebanon agenda. These two pan-arabist groups still cling to pro-baathist tendancies.
Interesting also that the Druze backed Progressive Socialist Party (which despite the name is more of a vehicle for Druze interests than socialist interests) is still behind the pullout. Walid Jumblatt and company have changed sides more times than I can count. Ironic when you consider the Druze religion has a precept that demands loyality to ones country (which is of course why Israel’s Druze community is so steadfastly loyal to the country).
Lahoud was known to be a coward when he was a general, and he must be trembling now. He is married to an Armenian interestingly enough and might possibly try to pull support from Lebanon’s Armenian community. While the Beirut Armenians have their own parties (Tashnag being the biggest) they tend to support whoever is the incumbency spot.
The sects will play their games as always, but all of them will have more of a chance for freedom and to advance their particular vision after Syria and its enforced electoral gerrymandering are gone.