I have a sinking feeling that we’ll be involved in military operations against Iran sometime this year.
Tehran has announced that they will violate the agreement not to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Even the EU has said that Iran has crossed a “red line” by breaking the IAEA seals.
Even the Europeans are realizing that diplomacy may simply be insufficient to end this crisis – Ahmadi-Nejad isn’t interested in carrots being used to draw him away from nuclear weapons, and he realizes that the EU is essentially toothless, and he’s hoping the US is too preoccupied to act before his nuclear program completes its initial work.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is almost certainly insane enough to develop and use nuclear weapons against targets in the region – including Israel and Europe. When Ahmadi-Nejad threatens the destruction of Israel, the rest of the world cannot simply assume that it’s nothing more than idle bluster. It’s bad enough that the megalomanic Kim Jung Il now has nuclear weapons, but at least he’s not necessarily likely to view himself on a messianic quest to destroy his neighbors. Ahmadi-Nejad is an even more dangerous kind of crazy.
The essential problem is that we have very few options in Iran. Occupying Iran would be exceptionally difficult even without the simultaneous operations in Iraq. Airstrikes are an option, but would require us to know precisely where Iran’s nuclear facilities are and have the ability to destroy the hardened bunkers that contain them – which may not be possible short of using nuclear weapons.
And that is the big question – if Iran develops nuclear weapons, would Israel consider a preemptive strike? Could they do so? What would the reaction of the United States be to such an action? The Israelis certainly couldn’t take such an action without our knowledge given that the Middle East is crawling withe American AWACS.
There is a pro-democracy movement within Iran, and it desperately needs whatever support we can give it. An attack against Iran is one of the least beneficial options on the table at the moment – if we can get the Iranians to take matters into their own hands it will save lives on all sides. The problem is that it’s totally unknown if the student protest movement can do much more than launch a few scattered protests. There needs to be a strong and viable democratic opposition in Iran, and that simply hasn’t coalesced yet.
Time is running out to find some kind of solution for the Iranian problem, and if the path of diplomacy continues to fail, our options will run out as well. Sooner or later something will have to happen, and that something may well be the option of military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“I have a sinking feeling that we’ll be involved in military operations against Iran sometime this year.”
How? Our military is stretched to the limit now. Revive the draft? We’ll almost have to if we plan a third major military deployment. My, wasn’t that decision to invade Iraq a winner?
We wouldn’t invade Iran, just launch airstrikes against their nuclear program. The Air Force isn’t engaged in Iraq as much as it was during the sanctions era, and launching a full-scale aerial attack is well within our capabilities at any time.
That is, if the Israelis don’t take care of the problem for us.
I agree, I don’t think the Israeli’s gonna take to kindly to a nucleur Iran nor will the rest of the neighborhood. Hence we actually see some response, albeit an impotent one, from the UN. El Baridia even said he was losing patience (that takes a lot) and that this act should (not will or has, but should) have ramifications. Which made the mad mullahs shake in their shoes, I’m sure. Seems like the Chinese and the Russians have a dog in this game, its just tough to see if they are just stirring the pot against us in the region (if it is they grossly underestimated Iran’s ambition) or if they actually want yet another country in their backyard with a bomb and the missle technology to get it to their capitals.
If it goes to the Security Council what will the Russians do, seeing that all the technology for said program comes from them. Taking the seals off is pretty dramatic as has been the rhethoric. It does show that diplomacey is in the end just a piece of paper as has been aptly documented with this whole process.
I have no doubt that Israel, with US blessing and “assistance”, will take out the Iranian nuclear facility. They have no choice.
What will be the outcome? Nothing! Israel will be condemmed by the Arab world (wow!)and every tinhorn dictator at the UN (double WOW!)
Joaquin,
this is just another way of saying, “You can do anything at all if you can get away with it”?
As in, “I am the biggest bully on the playground and all the kids are scared of me and their parents are afraid of my parents, so I can push them around as much as I please”?
J.