Dick Morris argues that the political winds are blowing to the left in 2006. When Dick Morris is right, he’s usually right. When Dick Morris is wrong, he is wrong. He states:
A big part of the reason is the success the Bush administration has had in solving and hence diminishing the importance of the Republican agenda. Taxes have been cut, we have not had a terror attack since Sept. 11 and trial lawyers are on the defensive. The issues that remain — energy, environment, healthcare and Social Security — usually are Democratic and liberal.
The drip-drip-drip of Iraqi casualties isn’t helping Bush any, and Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) has done more to hurt the GOP than any Democrat has, but the fundamental reason for the liberal drift is the salience of issues normally identified with the left.
I don’t see this at all – the GOP leadership has done a middling job at best at promoting the Republican agenda. Morris is missing the single biggest issue of 2006: pork. Americans are sick and tired of government pork and waste. There’s a huge groundswell movement against government waste going on – you can tell by the fact that members of Congress are starting to position themselves on the side of fiscal responsibility. A member of Congress is like a weathervane, if they’re moving in one direction it’s usually because they’re being pushed that way.
The Republicans need to get their act together on pork, but the Democrats have a reputation as a party that never met a government program they didn’t like. The GOP is wisely trying to once again position themselves as the party of fiscal discipline. Granted, at the moment that’s largely spin, but at least the Republicans are starting to get serious about it.
If 2006 becomes an election based on security, Republicans benefit. If it’s about pork, Republicans have a slight edge. If it does shift to other issues like the ones that Morris mentions, the Democrats may have a slight edge. However, there’s a major anti-incumbant sentiment out there, and that could very well effect both parties. The leadership on both sides of the Congressional aisle has been abysmal. People are rightly sick and tired of the level of vitriolic political infighting, and sick and tired of the culture in Washington. Neither party has a monopoly on partisanship or corruption.
The Republicans can win on pocketbook issues, so long as they try to do so. The GOP leadership never fought for Social Security reform, and it died on the table. When the GOP actually fights for something, such as tax cuts and judicial nominees, they have a tendency to win. If the Republican leadership can get their act together and stand behind their agenda, they can cut their losses in 2006.
The GOP does have one big advantage:
The Democrats are helping Bush mightily by their vitriolic response to reports of National Security Agency wiretapping and their opposition to the Patriot Act renewal. Since we have not had a terror attack in four and a half years, the homeland-security issue, the mother of all Republican issues, would seem likely to fade into the background. But by beating Bush over the head for his efforts to keep America safe, the liberals are helping Bush, raising the salience of one of his core issues. In his State of the Union speech, Bush should spend considerable time taking them to task on these grounds, since it will help him enormously.
Morris suggests making immigration and drugs key issues in 2006. Immigration is a no-no – the Bush Administration is dead wrong on immigration, and even Hillary Clinton has outflanked the GOP to the right on immigration recently. Bush’s guest-worker program is popular inside the White House and nowhere else. Unless the GOP can stand behind a true “get tough” policy on illegal immigration, immigration is a weakness for them not a strength.
While drug abuse is a traditional point of strength for the GOP, I don’t see it as relevant issue in this election. Drug abuse rates are down from their highs in the 1980s and 1990s. People don’t view drug abuse as a serious societal problem as they did, and the biggest drug abuse problems we face are meth and prescription drug abuse. Prescription drug abuse isn’t yet effecting crime rates, and meth abuse is primarily a rural problem at the moment. Could Bush make these into national issues? Certainly. Does it have enough resonance with the American people to be effective? I don’t think so. The rates of violent crime have been dropping, and most people are more worried about their economic health than being mugged on the streetcorner.
I don’t see a real shift leftward in this country. The Democrats still have advantages on some issues, and the Republicans have advantages on others. The issue climate remains in favorable Republican territory. Voters trust the GOP to keep them safe and to reduce the size of government, and while the GOP’s done a horrendous job of the later, the Democrats are known for doing worse.
I still think the GOP will take some minor losses in 2006, but this isn’t 1994, this is more like 1998. The Republicans thought they could win on painting the Clinton Administration as a bunch of corrupt politicos out of touch with American values. And while they were right, that message doesn’t work unless a party can show they have a better agenda. The Democrats haven’t shown that yet, and their own instincts are driving them towards trying to fight the Republicans on unfavorable ground. The Democrats don’t have an agenda, they don’t have a message, and what they do have is just vitriol, criticism, and partisanship. That didn’t work for them in 2002 or 2004, and it won’t work any better in 2006. With the demographic trends helping Republicans and the potential for Iran and Syria to emerge as issues in 2006, the chances that the Democrats will be able to shift the political winds to their issues of advantage don’t seem particularly strong.
Morris positioning for a job with the Dems again?
“When Dick Morris is right, he’s usually right. When Dick Morris is wrong, he is wrong.”
Morris provides a great deal of intuitive political observations, but much like his personal political affiliation, he changes his mind almost hourly.
“Morris is missing the single biggest issue of 2006: pork. Americans are sick and tired of government pork and waste. There’s a huge groundswell movement against government waste going on ”
Voters concerned with pork will be voting for Democrats in 2006 in hopes that they can divide control of government. Divided government is the single best way to ensure that pork-barrel spending subsides. The figure that should frighten Republicans the most is that 68% of Americans in a recent poll wanted divided government….and a number of moderate Republican bloggers and pundits are among them. With that in mind, all the Republican-friendly gerrymanders in the world may not be able to protect them from a potential tsunami.
“The GOP is wisely trying to once again position themselves as the party of fiscal discipline. Granted, at the moment that’s largely spin, but at least the Republicans are starting to get serious about it.”
The GOP is going against the grain of public opinion and cutting popular programs such as Medicaid and student loans, and then using that money to cut taxes that go almost exclusively to households that earn more than a quarter million a year….and the cost of the tax cuts exceeds the cost of the budget cuts wrestled from low-income Americans. Only on Planet Earth could this be called “getting serious” about fiscal discipline….and it’s horrible politics, especially post-Katrina.
“If 2006 becomes an election based on security, Republicans benefit.”
Seems unlikely. It’ll take another terrorist attack, at which point Bush loses bragging rights about his attack-free streak (which, curiously, is only half as long now as Clinton’s streak was.)
“The GOP leadership never fought for Social Security reform, and it died on the table. When the GOP actually fights for something, such as tax cuts and judicial nominees, they have a tendency to win.”
It wasn’t gonna happen with Social Security reform. People like you just don’t get it. Increasingly financially insecure Americans don’t want every aspect of their personal finances to become a crap shoot. One serious stock market crash (as most economists expect to happen at some point) will assure a swan song for Bush’s “ownership society” fantasy.
“The Democrats are helping Bush mightily by their vitriolic response to reports of National Security Agency wiretapping”
Another example of Republicans coming to premature assumptions. An AP poll last week showed 56% of Americans believe the government needs warrants to conduct wiretaps. Furthermore, the NSA whistle blower came forward last night on “Nightline” suggesting that millions of Americans (virtually everyone calling overseas) had their conversations monitored by the government. If he’s telling the truth, I have a hard time believing it benefits Bush.
“Immigration is a no-no – the Bush Administration is dead wrong on immigration”
Immigration will play differently depending on the candidate’s geography. If you’re Jon Kyl in Arizona, a hard-line anti-immigration position benefits you. If you’re a blue-state candidate, attacking illegal immigrants’ right to health care access is less certain. Generally, I think the immigration issue cuts in favor of conservatives, but there are enough people buying the “jobs Americans won’t do” meme to where Bush’s calls for a slavish “guest worker program” may find some resonance, particularly with the Chamber of Commerce crowd.
If the Republicans were smart, they’d co-opt the drug issue with their calls for stricter border enforcement. Now that most states have made it so difficult for meth producers to manufacture the drug in their own labs, the influx of the drug crossing the Mexican border will intensify, along with border violence. A Republican strategy to seal the borders, thus keeping out both illegal immigrants and meth, would play very well in meth-ravaged Middle America. But Bush will never nationalize these issues since his business peeps want to suppress wages with illegal immigrant labor. It’s up to the GOP Congressional leadership to take the lead, which is also dangerous ice to tread since it would involve Bush’s COngressional allies undermining his Presidency.
“I still think the GOP will take some minor losses in 2006, but this isn’t 1994, ”
It’s unlikely to be 1994, but preliminary polls in Congressional swing districts indicate you guys may not land as softly as you think. Brad Ellsworth is leading John Hostettler in Indiana. Tom DeLay is trailing the “generic Democrat” in his Sugar Land home district by more than 10 points. Conrad Burns is now tied with Jon Tester in Montana. The Democrats are probably gonna make huge gains in spite of themselves, seizing upon voters’ desire for divided government. They’re well-positioned to take the House, and if popular Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman gets into the the Nevada Senate race as speculated, they have a toehold to get the sixth Senate seat they need to win that body as well.
“The issue climate remains in favorable Republican territory.”
You still have the edge on national security. NOTHING else.
“With the demographic trends helping Republicans”
Demographic trends strongly favor the Democrats. The rapid growth of Hispanic voters in Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and even Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia will transform the politics of those states similar to the early 1990’s transformation of California into one of the most Democratic states of the union.
The problem with that line of argumentation is that people don’t tend to vote strategically in those terms – a wish for “divided government” has never been a statistically significant determinant of voter behavior. Furthermore, even if someone has a theoretical desire for divided government, that doesn’t suggest they intend to change their voting preferences based on that thought.
Which is typical Democratic spin that appeals to other partisan Democrats, but no one else.
Watch for Iran and Syria to be in the news – those two countries are fueling the insurgency in Iraq, and something may have to be done to control Iran’s nuclear program. As long as terrorism and foreign policy is an issue, the Democrats are at a disadvantage.
Except a majority of Americans are already invested in the market in some form of fashion. The idea that the market – especially something as stable as Treasury bonds or money market accounts – are dangerously unstable is simply wrong. The people who are losing out are the ones on the defined benefits plans whose employers are going broke trying to fulfill promises they can no longer keep.
Just keep it up then – this is a losing issue for the Democrats, and the Democrats damn well know it.
Perhaps. My guess is that nobody wants to touch immigration because it’s not politically expedient for most to do so on a national level.
Except business isn’t pro-immigrant labor. Most businesses are worried about the rising cost in health care which is being driven in no small part by illegal immigrants straining social services programs.
You make an interesting point at first, but I don’t see meth as a border control issue. Most meth is made here in the USA from common chemicals, not smuggled in from Mexico. Pot and other drugs, yes, but meth seems to be more of a law enforcement issue. Plus, sooner or later the meth craze will die down – the people who use it tend not to live long.
Except preliminary polls don’t mean a thing. No one is paying attention to politics right now. The climate in January and the climate in November may not be remotely similar. Trying to predict the results of an election 11 months away based on current polls isn’t a very accurate way of going about things.
And the Democrats continue to alienate their own constituency on social issues. The Democrats still have no idea how being horrendously out of step with the values of mainstream America they really are – and as the party continues to be the party of secular coastal elites, that trend will only continue.
Except Hispanics only went for Kerry by 58%, and the more Hispanics assimilate into American culture, the more Republican they get. Which isn’t surprising given that Hispanics are quite socially conservative, and many are fiscally conservative as well. Furthermore, the growth states are all in Republican areas, while the blue states are losing populations. The growth of the exurbs will only make things worse for the Democrats…
“a wish for “divided government†has never been a statistically significant determinant of voter behavior.”
If the figure was 58%, I’d agree with you, but 68% indicates a widespread problem. Since the Dems only need to pick up 16 seats (about 7% of GOP held seats) to take over the House, I think they’re positioned well.
“Which is typical Democratic spin that appeals to other partisan Democrats, but no one else.”
Spin? What part of this statement isn’t true….”The GOP is going against the grain of public opinion and cutting popular programs such as Medicaid and student loans, and then using that money to cut taxes that go almost exclusively to households that earn more than a quarter million a year….and the cost of the tax cuts exceeds the cost of the budget cuts wrestled from low-income Americans.”?
“Watch for Iran and Syria to be in the news – those two countries are fueling the insurgency in Iraq, and something may have to be done to control Iran’s nuclear program. As long as terrorism and foreign policy is an issue, the Democrats are at a disadvantage.”
After Iraq, Americans are gonna be skeptical about the need for more military action unless a threat is unwaveringly imminent. Unless there is evidence of such, it would be a huge political mistake for Bush to expand his foreign policy target zone between now and the midterms.
“Just keep it up then – this is a losing issue for the Democrats, and the Democrats damn well know it.”
What part of “56% of Americans don’t support wiretapping without a warrant” don’t you understand? You declared victory too soon on this issue (you guys never learn from your premature “Mission Accomplished” verdicts). Certainly there is a risk for Democrats playing this issue harder than the soft public opposition to Bush wiretapping will politically allow. If there are breathless chants of impeachment from Democratic leaders, for instance, it will backfire. But the Democratic position is the majority position, as it is on nearly every issue, on wiretapping without warrants, and cool-headed opposition to the principle stands to help them more than it hurts them.
“Except business isn’t pro-immigrant labor. Most businesses are worried about the rising cost in health care which is being driven in no small part by illegal immigrants straining social services programs.”
I’ve never heard a business group speak ill of Bush’s “guest worker program” or the general need for immigrants to “do the jobs Americans won’t do.” As the tax burden for business continues to spiral into the oblivion and the employer-funded health care system approaches its sunset, businesses know that they will be able to continually shift the cost burden of social services for immigrants to the general public. The prospect of a floor full of cheap, disempowered immigrant labor will yield far more dividends than costs for them, and that’s why they’re constantly lobbying for it.
“Most meth is made here in the USA from common chemicals, not smuggled in from Mexico.”
You’re wrong about that….at least according to my source who’s involved in a regional Meth Task Force and gives seminars about the issue all over Minnesota. According to her, 75% of meth in America is produced in largely unregulated superlabs in Mexico. Another 10% comes from superlabs in California, largely produced by motorcycle gangs. The other 15% is made in labs on the backroads of rural America from common chemicals. Now that most states have significant restrictions on the purchase of pseudoephedrine, local addicts are having a much more difficult time producing the drug in their kitchens, meaning that there is increased demand for the mass-produced Mexican meth to make up the difference (meth lab busts are down by half in 2005, even as meth usage arrests actually increased). It’s no coincidence that drug-related violence at the Mexican border town of Nuevo Laredo, among others, hit record levels this past year.
“Plus, sooner or later the meth craze will die down – the people who use it tend not to live long.”
That’s assuming alot. It’s been steadily growing and expanding from its Missouri base for at least 15 years now. While lab seizures will likely continue to diminish because of pseudoephedrine sales restrictions, there is little evidence that overall usage will be declining anytime soon.
“Except preliminary polls don’t mean a thing. No one is paying attention to politics right now. The climate in January and the climate in November may not be remotely similar.”
The one good thing George Bush has done through his polarizing politics is to get more American voters engaged in the political system. From the stats I’ve seen, voters are more engaged in the political process in January 2006 than they were in say, September of 1994 or 1998.
“The Democrats still have no idea how being horrendously out of step with the values of mainstream America they really are ”
Again, Democrats are seen as weaker on the issue of national security. Nothing else. You don’t have a leg to stand on regarding “values.” Only 10 states are polled as having more self-identified pro-lifers than pro-choicers. As for as school prayer, gay marriage and other wedge issues, very few Democrats are in the forefront endorsing the views of the “activist courts.” The “values” debate can only cut against the Democratic Party through gross manipulation of the facts by Republicans and their operatives (“John Kerry wants to ban the Bible”).
“Except Hispanics only went for Kerry by 58%, and the more Hispanics assimilate into American culture, the more Republican they get.”
Reading too much into the exit polls of one election cycle is unwise, particularly since the same exit polls showed Kerry winning Ohio by five points. Most of the Hispanic working class are non-citizens who don’t vote. The town where I lived in 2004 had a 30% Hispanic population and a citywide voter turnout nearly 20% lower than neighboring towns of identical size. This is no coincidence. Considering how long the citizenship process takes, the shift of Hispanic political relevance will be slow, but when the time comes that the Hispanic working class vote surpasses that of the Hispanic South Texas ranchers and Miami-area Cubans, the GOP is really gonna be in trouble.
“Which isn’t surprising given that Hispanics are quite socially conservative, and many are fiscally conservative as well.”
Those who VOTED in 2004 probably do fit that model. But the voter-eligible Hispanic voter bloc of 2004 is disproportionately Cuban and upper-income compared to the Hispanic population at large. As more of the Hispanic working class qualify for citizenship, the more the entire country will vote like California.
“Furthermore, the growth states are all in Republican areas, while the blue states are losing populations. The growth of the exurbs will only make things worse for the Democrats…”
According to the most recent population data, the only states “losing” population are North Dakota and West Virginia, with a slight decline in Ohio. None of these are blue states. Most blue states are clocking in very modest population growth, but they’re not declining. The exurbs are certainly a boon for Republicans, but it’s all they got. As the rest of the country becomes more racially diverse, and at least as I predict, less obsessed with cultural wedge issues that neither party does more than grandstand about during election years, the Democratic Party’s centrist message will be much more appealing compared to Republican’s heartfelt appeals to extreme wealth and hollow appeals to extreme religion.