Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad once again may have survived a possible assassination attempt as two bombs detonated in the southwestern city of Ahwaz. Six people were killed and nearly 50 injured in the blasts.
There was already a possible assassination attempt on Ahmadi-Nejad’s life earlier this year when his convoy was attacked by Baluchistani Sunnis seeking autonomy from the Shi’ite-dominated Iranian government. This bombing may be yet another sign of internal unrest in Iran. Likewise, Ahwaz is home to many ethnic Arabs who are also desiring more autonomy from the rule of Iranian Persians.
However, the Iranian Security Services are quite loyal to the government, and the democratic opposition is weak. It’s uncertain what would happen were Ahmadi-Nejad to be assassinated. The Iranian people are relatively well-educated and the student movement is gaining strength, just nowhere near enough strength to fight the current regime. While internal revolt leading to a democratic revolution would be wonderful for Iran and for the world, it simply isn’t likely to happen despite the rising dissatisfaction with Iran’s isolation from the rest of the world.
That doesn’t mean that the US and other governments shouldn’t support Iranian dissident groups – groups such as Solidarity and Charter 77 made a huge difference in hastening the collapse of Soviet Communism. However, unless we’re willing to fully arm and support an Iranian civil war (which may prove to be counterproductive), containment is our last remaining option for dealing with Iran at this point – which may include stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons through force.
