The New York Times finds that Rudy Giuliani is beginning to lay the groundwork for a 2008 run.
If Rudy runs in 2008, he’ll win. Yes, he’s not nearly as socially conservative as the Republican base, and yes the Kerik kerfluffle was a major black eye – none of that really matters. Giuliani, despite his social liberalism, can energize the Republican base like nobody else can. At the end of the day, politics is about winning – and Giuliani can win.
Given that Hizzoner is working on developing his contacts with Republicans across key states and trying to ingratiate himself with conservative groups, it’s fairly clear that he has his eyes on 2008. If Rudy runs, Rudy will win, and the Democrats will be in big trouble…
You’ve officially flaked out. Rudy’s positions on social issues make him dead on arrival with the wingnut primary voters at Iowa’s Dutch Reformed bastions and South Carolina’s Bob Jones University. Furthermore, his adulterous track record and list of “personal indiscretions” would even make Bill Clinton blush. The guy’s ugly past and wholesale incompatibility with the Republican faithful will not go unnoticed in the crowded field.
The best news about Guiliani’s presence in the race is that he and McCain will divide the already dwindling number of GOP non-crazies and help hand over the nomination to someone less electable in the general election. You get ’em, Rudy!!!
There is no way in the world the religious right would let Rudy get the nomination much less be on the ticket as veep.
If he does make it, then the influence of the religious right has finally taken a back seat to sanity, which is something that people of all political parties could celebrate.
You know he’s got a chance when the usual suspects are screaming that he’s gonna lose before he even gets to the gate.
Well, all I can say is that I’d pull the lever for him before Hillary… long before Hillary…
Didn’t you hear, Mark? John McCain used to be normal, but no longer. He has joined the other Republicans in kissing the asses of religious zealots.
I think Jay’s right. If Giuliani runs, and if McCain also runs, their fame and personalities will obscure the various governors and other senators who might try to run. It will immediately be seen as a 2 man race and require the GOP faithful to pick between them. The religious right might stay home, or they may choose McCain.
Either candidate humiliates whatever dwarf is picked by the Dems.
Erica, unfortunately, the media narrative about McCain over the last six years is gonna be hard to undo. The guy has been lionized as a maverick and a centrist for so long that it’ll be hard to convince the mushy middle that he’s now the enemy. Furthermore, the guy continues to sound like a sensible moderate when he talks. He’s gonna be tough to beat, but Giuliani’s presence in dividing the primary votes of the few remaining sane Republicans could be most useful.
Winston, McCain MIGHT be able to mend fences with the spoiled brats of the Religious Right and the Cato Institute by this time in 2008, but Giuliani’s personal life, and the fact that the Republican party base disagrees with him on nearly every issue that is most important to them. A Giuliani Presidential bid is DOA.
Is a Giuliani bid necessarily DOA? I’m not sure. Not every Republican party in the country is controlled by Christianists; one of the earliest primaries is in a state where the GOP isn’t (New Hampshire). Of course, Rudy’s problem in New Hampshire wouldn’t be his stance on abortion or gays (he’d fit right in there with his views); it would be with his views on gun control, which could sink him.
An even bigger problem for Rudy in New Hampshire is that John McCain (the guy who won the last NH GOP primary by 19 points) will be sharing the ballot with him. Beyond that, Rudy was on the verge of ending his tenure as NYC Mayor a disgraced and unpopular politician. His leadership after 9/11 was noteworthy, but not necessarily overwhelming, and certainly not enough to undo his long list of liabilities both with Republican primary voters and anti-war moderates.
Lastly, Giuliani practically oozes “New York annoying”. When gets on a soapbox, there are few people in politics more shrill to the unsuspecting human eardrum. I can’t see how the people of Muskogee, Oklahoma, are gonna have that all-important “cultural connection” to this guy. I’m underwhelmed with former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, but if the Dems ran him against a guy as socially liberal and personally sleazy as Giuliani, I could see the Dems making some serious inroads in the South.
You must have never heard Giuiliani speak… he’s probably one of the best orators in the country. You must be confusing him with Hillary…
Jay, you’re correct that I haven’t heard Giuliani delivering a speech. Perhaps he is good in that format, but in the fast-paced format of Sunday morning talk shows, I long for Trent Lott, George Allen, Ken Mehlman and the usual GOP suspect when I have to suffer through 15 minutes of Rudy as the Republican mouthpiece. I agree that Hillary is an annoying speaker, but in a debate with Giuliani (what an excruciating thought that is!), I suspect more people throwing things at their TV when Rudy’s preaching than Hillary.
He’s a fair orator (I have seen him speak, live), but there is something a little unsettling about his personality to midwesterners; he does ooze a kind of “New York” arrogance. On personality and delivery alone, McCain would likely go over much better with more culturally-conservative audiences; which was one of many reasons that the Bush campaign worked so hard to shut his bid down in ’00.
How about we get some “Pawlenty for President” movement going?
In all honesty, though, I’m not very excited about anyone the Republicans have to offer at this point. George Allen’s a Senator, which never bodes well. McCain is popular enough, but it’s too hard to predict him. Giuliani…well, Mark and others have already covered his problems. Frist doesn’t stand a chance. Romney’s tough to predict too, as it’s hard for anyone to believe a conservative could actually get elected in Massachusetts – and that’s without considering how his Mormonism would go over with the religious right.
Bottom line, let’s hope someone solid steps up soon. I’m all in for Pawlenty.