In what will be a blow to the Lieberman campaign and a win for the Republican Party it looks like Ned Lamont will win the the Connecticut Democratic primary tomorrow – Lamont is leading by 8.7 in the RCP average. However, the last Quinnipac poll shows Lamont’s lead shrinking as the election draws near.
Lieberman isn’t out – polling in primary elections isn’t an exact science by any means, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of Connecticut Democrats who are for Lamont in theory rethink their position before casting their votes tomorrow. A party that casts out one of its more august members for the heresy of reaching across the aisle on critical affairs is not the kind of party that can win over moderate voters. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lamont only pulls out a narrow win as many Democrats choose a candidate who won’t give the GOP plenty of ammunition against their own party.
Lamont is being driven by extreme partisans. He’s an incredibly poor candidate, his media appearances has been uniformly terrible, and his command of policy is practically non-existent. Winning a partisan primary is a lot different than winning a general election – even in a state as heavily Democratic as Connecticut. For a candidate to win in a general election, they have to be able to appeal to more than a partisan base – and many Republicans are going to be crossing over to vote for Lieberman just to spite the radical left. Lamont has to win by a large margin – approaching 20% – to have a chance at winning the general election.
I don’t think Lamont will pull that off. I think he’ll win, but I think his margins are inflated – “netroots” candidates always poll well, but have troubles actually winning in an environment where spin and astroturf are useless. I’m predicting a Lamont win by 5-8%, followed by a Lieberman reelection in the fall.
Lieberman is a liberal, and very much a liberal at that. On nearly every issue, he’s on the wrong side. However, if the Democratic Party wants to punish one of their elder statesmen for the crime of putting country over party, it is a sign of just how dangerous it would be to have them in control of this country’s future.
“Lamont is being driven by extreme partisans. He’s an incredibly poor candidate, his media appearances has been uniformly terrible, and his command of policy is practically non-existent.”
How do you turn a 55-point poll deficit into a 13-point lead if you’re an “incredibly poor candidate”? Again, don’t tell Mark Kennedy about how awful Lamont is or he’ll have to rethink the quirky campaign ads that he hijacked from Lamont’s campaign. I don’t trust Lamont as being as progressive as the bloggers infer and probably wouldn’t vote for him, but the voters of Connecticut who know him best sure seem to. All evidence points to Lieberman being “an incredibly poor candidate”, not Lamont.
“and many Republicans are going to be crossing over to vote for Lieberman just to spite the radical left. Lamont has to win by a large margin – approaching 20% – to have a chance at winning the general election.”
If Lamont wins by double digits, I anticipate Lieberman will scrap his independent bid. I wouldn’t be surprised if that wasn’t part of a deal that went along with the Bill Clinton endorsement. Furthermore, pundits from all side now contend Lieberman is likely to lose the general election as well. Even Washington Times’ Editor Tony Blankley said so, along with the rest of the panel on this weekend’s McLaughlin Group.
““netroots†candidates always poll well, but have troubles actually winning in an environment where spin and astroturf are useless.”
Exactly right….well except for Jon Tester who destroyed the favored nominee in Montana….and Jim Webb in Virginia, who nobody thought would beat Harris Miller…..oh, and Dan Mongiardo of Kentucky in 2004 who came from a double-digit deficit only weeks earlier to within one point on incumbent Senator Jim Bunning……oh yeah, and Stan Matsutinka (sp.?) who came from out of nowhere to nearly topple Marilyn Musgrave in a bright red district in eastern Colorado.
“Lieberman is a liberal, and very much a liberal at that.”
On two of the most powerful issues of our time he stands with Bush….the war and free trade. Given the circumstances of this race, I’d hold my nose and vote for Joe if I had the opportunity, but it’s certainly understandable that any self-respecting liberal wouldn’t.
“However, if the Democratic Party wants to punish one of their elder statesmen for the crime of putting country over party, it is a sign of just how dangerous it would be to have them in control of this country’s future.”
Very true! But what’s the alternative to this horror! There is not one but TWO cases on the Republican side where political gadflies have the audacity to challenge the incumbent’s birthright to lifetime political office in primaries. With Steve Laffey challenging moderate Lincoln Chafee from the right in Rhode Island, and Tim Walberg challenging moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz from the right in MI-07, the Republicans must be twice as “dangerous” as the Democrats where only one incumbent is being challenged.
Because winning a primary and winning a general election are too very different things. Lamont’s strength aren’t because he’s a great candidate, but because he’s an empty suit being filled by a group of radical partisans.
I don’t think that’s true at all. For one, I think the race will be closer than that. Even in CT, Democratic primary voters aren’t representative of the electorate at large. In the last Quinnipac poll, Lieberman still has a very healthy lead.
Except those are either primary victories (which can easily be won by extreme partisans) or not wins at all. Close doesn’t count.
Lincoln Chafee has a voting record that puts him consistantly outside of the mainstream of the Republican Party — unlike Lieberman. There’s nothing inherently wrong with a primary challenge — there is something inherently wrong with a primary challenge that’s based on the idea that it’s absolutely unacceptable for someone to be an American first and a Democrat second.
“Lamont’s strength aren’t because he’s a great candidate, but because he’s an empty suit being filled by a group of radical partisans.”
Branding the majority of Connecticut Democrats as “radicals” will be a tough sell.
“In the last Quinnipac poll, Lieberman still has a very healthy lead.”
He had a similarly huge lead among Democratic primary voters three months ago. It vanished like a thief in the night. If he trounces Joe in the primary tomorrow night, Lamont’s upward mobility will likely get another bounce heading towards the general election. Lamont’s a political novice who is probably more gaffe-prone than your lifetime politician would be (excluding Conrad Burns and Rick Santorum, of course). I’m afraid an embarrassing blunder by Lamont is the only thing that will be able to save Joe at this point….and I’m talking about November.
“Except those are either primary victories (which can easily be won by extreme partisans) or not wins at all. Close doesn’t count.”
Which has nothing to do with your original statement which was false and went as follows: ““netroots†candidates always poll well, but have troubles actually winning in an environment where spin and astroturf are useless.” Nice try, though. Until recently, netroots candidates did have troubles winning, but their poll numbers have always been awful prior to election night where they almost always exceed expectations.
“There’s nothing inherently wrong with a primary challenge — there is something inherently wrong with a primary challenge that’s based on the idea that it’s absolutely unacceptable for someone to be an American first and a Democrat second.”
Strawman. I could just as easily spin the primary against Lincoln Chafee as putting party over principle…..or any primary in the history of American politics for that matter. Lieberman rubbed his face in a position far outside the mainstream of his party and then went on Fox News to denounce the 90% of Democrats who disagree with his position. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Except primary elections traditionally have low turnouts. The majority of Connecticut Democrats won’t be voting tomorrow – although it’s likely to be a larger figure than normal.
Except Democratic primary voters don’t resemble the general electorate, not even in Connecticut.
Lamont is winning for two reasons: he has the support of the radical partisans, and he’s throwing in a shitload of his own money. He is a poor candidate, he has a constant deer-in-the-headlights look wherever he goes, and he can’t string together much more than a dumb platitude to save his soul. An embarrasing blunder is virtually guaranteed from Lamont.
The fact that putting the interests of one’s country ahead of pissant partisan concerns is apparently a position which is “far outside the mainstream of his party” for the Democrats is precisely why the Democratic Party is too irresponsible to be allowed to control policy in this country.
“He is a poor candidate, he has a constant deer-in-the-headlights look wherever he goes, and he can’t string together much more than a dumb platitude to save his soul.”
That’s as harsh as I’ve ever heard you speak about our President. Oh wait…you’re talking about Lamont….
“An embarrasing blunder is virtually guaranteed from Lamont.”
You could be right. I’ve been underwhelmed by what I’ve seen from the guy. The fact that he’s gone nowhere but up under an omnipresent media spotlight thus far doesn’t bode well for your wishing of an embarrassing blunder however.
“The fact that putting the interests of one’s country ahead of pissant partisan concerns is apparently a position which is “far outside the mainstream of his party†for the Democrats is precisely why the Democratic Party is too irresponsible to be allowed to control policy in this country.”
Again, there is nothing more or less sinister regarding the motives of this primary challenge as other primary challenges past and present. The only way you can say that the purging of a centrist Democrat in a primary is representative of an “irresponsible party” is if you concur that the purging of a centrist Republican is just as irresponsible. Otherwise, its just a flimsy strawman from an uber-partisan.
My hopes for this race: originally I was hoping Lieberman would pull it out, but at this point I suspect his critics will stay home on November 7 if he’s the nominee, virtually assuring the re-elections of vulnerable Republicans Rob Simmons, Chris Shays, and Nancy Johnson. Now I’m hoping for a Lamont blowout of 15 points or higher where Lieberman is pressured into abandoning his independent bid. Who knows, that may work out best for him anyway if his departure allows him to take the Secretary of Defense position with the Bush administration he has long lusted for. Don’t be surprised if it plays out that way.
Here’s the ugliest story about Lieberman’s campaign that I’ve seen yet….and from the conservative “New York Post” to boot. http://www.nypost.com/commentary/stranded_senator_a_dead_man_running_commentary_andrea_peyser.htm
He hasn’t lusted for it at all: the Bush Administration has coyly mentioned it, but Lieberman has said no.
Besides, who the hell would want that job now? With Iraq getting dicier and dicier, someone would have to have one very large set of brass cojones to want to touch that with a ten-foot pole. I don’t think Lieberman has any interest in the position, and nobody could blame him for that.
Lieberman is getting nailed because he told the Democratic Party that they should not allow partisan politics to interfere with the foreign policy of this nation: a principle which used to be accepted by all. If it were just really that Lieberman wasn’t liberal enough, this race wouldn’t be in the headlines: it’s the motive that matters here.
“Besides, who the hell would want that job now?”
Perhaps someone who has convinced himself of the mind-blowing “progress” made in Iraq in the past year….someone like, say, Joe Lieberman.
“If it were just really that Lieberman wasn’t liberal enough, this race wouldn’t be in the headlines: it’s the motive that matters here.”
Whatever the motives, a primary involving a former Vice-Presidential nominee fighting for his political life would be a headline-grabber.
You two should get a room.