What Do They Stand For?

Michael Kinsley takes a look at the Democratic platform and finds their “New Direction” rather lacking. The Democrats’ 31-page manifesto is the usual bunch of mealy-mouthed platitudes and not even half-assed policies that represents the complete disconnect between Democrats and actual consideration of policy issues. As Kinsley, who is hardly a member of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, notes:

The Democrats promise “security, prosperity and opportunity” in “diverse, safe and vibrant communities”. They will “protect Americans, secure our borders, and restore our position of international leadership” through “homeland, energy, and diplomatic strategies”. And we’re only up to page three.

It’s all platitudes. Unlike the Contract with America in 1994, the Democrats don’t really have a sense of policy because they’re not running on policy. They’re running on little more than a sense of abject hatred for the opposition. It isn’t about taxes or preserving Social Security, it’s about partisanship. The polls consistently show that Democratic voters are motivated less by love for their candidates than hatred for Republicans. Who cares about policy when you’re running a campaign fueled by vindictiveness?

The problem is that the Democrats did the same thing in 2002 and 2004, and it caused them to lose. Even if the Democrats win today, it won’t be by margins any larger than are traditional in a six-year midterm. There’s no mandate for the Democrats, although their inflated egos will likely interpret it as such.

A Democratic takeover will lead to two years of partisan attacks against sitting officials, meaningless harassments, baseless charges, and continual witch-hunts. It will be a travesty, the only good result of which will be the Congress unable to do anything of substance. Meanwhile, our enemies will still be plotting, Social Security will continue towards collapse, and other key policy issues will go unconsidered.

The silver lining in that crowd is that the American electorate can’t stand sore winners, and the effect of yet another two years of childish partisanship could very well be an electoral spanking on a truly massive scale. When all the Democrats stand for is a veneer of platitudes covering a seething hatred, even if they get the power they so desperately want, they’re likely to use it to shoot themselves in the foot.

Election Day Coverage

As is traditional, I’ll be doing the usual Election Day live-blogging. Those of you in the Twin Cities can catch the Northern Alliance Radio Network on AM 1280 The Patriot this evening for live election coverage. Those of you who can’t get that station can also listen in on the live web stream.

So far, it’s looking good for the Republicans in the Senate. There was a probably false poll showing Santorum within 4 of Casey in PA — that poll is almost certainly inaccurate, but I’ve heard some internals that show a dramatic tightening of that race. Steele is still very much in the game, depending on how well he can motivate the African-American vote. Talent’s race in MO is going to be one to watch, as that one is on the cusp and could provide an edge to the Democrats.

The House will likely flip Democratic, but not by much. As bad as having the Democrats in charge in even a small way will be, two years of Speaker Pelosi will be enough to guarantee a GOP blowout in 2008. That is, of course, assuming that someone doesn’t pull a Brutus with her and ensure she’s out of the picture.

In Minnesota, I’m hoping that Pawlenty pulls through. Mike Hatch would be a disaster for this state, as Lileks puts it, he’s a mean, small man. Minnesota deserves better than that schlub. Still, I think enough Minnesota voters know who Pawlenty is and know who Mike Hatch is to see the obvious, especially in outstate and the metro. In my district, John Kline will beat Colleen Rowley like a rented mule. It won’t even be close. Rowley is an incredibly poor candidate who doesn’t have the brains to pull off her patronizing attitude. Watching the two of them debate was like watching Mike Tyson box Woody Allen — there’s just no contest.

The transportation amendment will go down, I hope. It’s a good idea in theory, but there’s no reason why what should be a statutory change needs to be made as a constitutional amendment. Furthermore, we don’t need any more funding for light rail. Either it succeeds on its own merits or it doesn’t. I’m not opposed to the idea of light rail, but not so big a fan of it that I’m willing to see more money sunk into a system that can’t sustain itself over the long term. The transportation amendment would be a sop to the metro area, while outstate Minnesota would end up subsidizing metro-area transit. Local problems need local solutions, and making Worthington and Waseca pay for transportation fixes to the Crosstown or more light rail between Minneapolis and St. Paul is simply a misallocation of dollars. Even though such a light-rail system would be nice personally, I don’t feel the need to force others to pay for it.

More updates as the day goes on.

UPDATE: For all those Republicans worried about today’s results, a little blast from the past:

The GOP Gains Ground

Multiple polls are now showing that the GOP is getting a substantial last-minute push. Gallup, ABC, and Pew all have the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot question down to the single digits. Furthermore, Ed Morrissey has delved into the internals of the Pew poll and found that the GOP is regaining their strength in core demographic areas. The Democrats are once again failing to do much more than preach to the choir.

Part of it is certainly due to John Kerry’s idiotic comments bringing many fence-sitting GOP voters back into the fold. There’s nothing that is more effective than reminding GOP-allied voters exactly why they don’t like the Democrats. Given the choice between going with a flawed Republican Party and a Democratic Party led by such “notables” as John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi, Republican voters aren’t going to cut off their noses to spite their face.

I’d also argue that many of the moderates who have been looking at the Democrats as a viable alternative are facing the same question: can the Democrats be trusted to do any better? The reason why 1994 was such a blowout was because the Republicans had made themselves a viable alternative. It’s one thing to be mad at the status quo. It’s another thing to be able to focus that anger into constructive political activity. The Democrats’ core problem is that they are running based on their anger rather than the voter’s anger. The average voter is disappointed with Bush, but the idea that merely tying a candidate to the President is enough to defeat them is not workable. For one, 40% of the electorate approves of the President. If at least 10% don’t care, then the attack is pointless. Local elections are still largely defined by local and not national issues, so the entire thrust of the Democrats’ campaign is going in an entirely irrelevant direction.

The GOP is gaining back ground that it lost. The big question is whether those gains will be sufficient to stem the bleeding. As far as the House is concerned, it seems unlikely. The Democrats are set to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 seats. The Republicans aren’t hopeless, but it’s going to be difficult to defend that much territory. The Senate seems more likely to stay in Republican hands, but a 50-50 split isn’t unlikely either. There’s no doubt that the GOP is going to lose Senate seats, it’s just a question of how many.

The Democrats are once again doing all that they can to seize defeat from the jaws of victory, after weeks of Republican missteps. Still, that doesn’t mean that it won’t be perilously close, which is why turnout is going to be critical tomorrow. If GOP voters are more motivated than they were, that means that the Democrats may have to content themselves with no more than the typical midterm gains rather than the blowout that their partisans were hoping to have.

Minnesota Poll Shows Pawlenty Ahead

OK, so it doesn’t, but that’s a fair reading of the latest Minnesota Poll which shows Hatch ahead of Pawlenty by 45-40 with a 3.2% MOE. The Minnesota Poll is always as accurate as a DFL push-poll would be, and undercounting Republican strength by 5-10% is not only possible, but almost a certainty when dealing with the Star-Tribune‘s infamously inaccurate polling.

Hatch’s meltdown (calling a reporter who dared to ask a difficult question a “Republican whore”) only further cements the idea that Hatch is a lose cannon, in comparison to Pawlenty’s “Minnesota nice” reputation. Hatch’s running mate, Judi Dutcher was caught not knowing a thing about the ethanol-based E85 fuel which is a major issue for Minnesota agriculture, which shows just how terminally unprepared she is. Most of Hatch’s support (30%) comes from hardcore DFL partisans who hate Tim Pawlenty because of the “R” behind his name. 14% of Hatch supporters are swayable, and I’m guessing that because of the partisan nature of the Minnesota Poll, those numbers are a lot bigger than the poll indicates.

Mike Hatch has shown his true colors, which is not going to help him with Minnesota voters. When it comes down to actually going into the precinct and voting, Minnesota voters are going to look back at the last four years in which Minnesota’s economy has done well and consider which candidate reflects the values of this state best, and vote for Pawlenty. Hatch is a lose cannon who deserves to lose. We’ve already had one thin-skinned governor with Ventura, the last thing we need is someone with the same temperament who doesn’t look as good in a feather boa. The fact that Hatch is within the MOE in the most biased poll in the country only shows how badly he’s likely to do.

Down To The Wire

The national Senate outlook just keeps changing in the final sprint to the finish line. Conrad Burns is neck-and-neck with Jon Tester in Montana. Mason-Dixon has Lincoln Chaffee just ahead of Whitehouse in Rhode Island — which could be a major statistical outlier, or Mason-Dixon could be picking up on something the others aren’t. Mason-Dixon also has Bob Corker up by 12 points, which suggests that either Mason-Dixon is systematically oversampling Republicans or the other polls are undersampling them.

Right now, it looks like the Republicans will lose Ohio and Pennsylvania. Neither DeWine nor Santorum are even close to victory. The loss of Santorum is especially troubling — when it comes to issues such as fighting AIDS in Africa, Santorum has been one of this nation’s strongest voices. To have him lose, especially to a schlub like Bob Casey, Jr., is a tragedy.

Allen is neck-and-neck with Jim Webb, which shouldn’t have happened. Allen had all the advantages going in, but the VA race has become one of the dirtiest races in the country. Allen torpedoed any chances for him to be viable in 2008, and is in danger of losing what should be a safe seat. I don’t particularly see him losing at this point, but it’s going to become a lot closer than it should have been had Allen run a stronger campaign and kept his mouth shut.

Kean is down, but not out. He’s run a strong campaign, he’s a smart guy, and he should win, but New Jersey is as Democratic as they come. No doubt this will be one of the states where the usual Democratic army of the undead rise from their graves on Election Day to pull the level for Democratic candidates. The New Jersey Democratic Party makes the Sopranos look like the Flanders, and until that rat’s nest is cleared no Republican has a chance.

Jim Talent is hanging on for dear life against Claire McCaskill, with Mason-Dixon showing McCaskill up by 1 against Talent. Talent needs to be ahead to counteract the usual voter fraud in St. Louis (another place where hoards of zombies rise to vote Democrat every two years). Talent may yet win, but this one is going to be a nail-biter, and will depend on GOP turnout being great enough to outweigh voter fraud.

Cardin should win in Maryland by the polls, but I’m not so sure the charismatic Michael Steele can’t pull it off. All Steele needs to do is get 25% of the African-American vote, and he wins. With the Democrats having taken Kweisi Mfume out of the race and Cardin’s weakness, that’s quite possible. I think Steele might just pull it off, but it’s going to be down to the wire, and could come down to the distribution of African-American votes and GOP turnout.

If I were to guess at the moment, I’d say that the Republicans very narrowly keep the Senate. Corker’s as sure a bet as there is right now. DeWine and Santorum are out (although I’m still praying for a miracle in Pennsylvania…). Allen, Talent, and Burns are on the fence. Kean and Steele provide the wild cards. The Democrats are going to have to do very well in key races to take the Senate, which remains possible, but less possible than it was before. If Mason-Dixon is right, and both Burns and Chafee are back from the political dead, that means that the Democrats are losing ground. Many of these races will be down to the wire, but the overall trendline looks somewhat positive for the GOP.

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty also notes that ABC has the GOP down by only 6 on the generic ballot question. Now, the generic ballot question is not an accurate predictor of actual electoral results, but it does show that the GOP’s turnout may be as strong as expected, if not stronger. Certainly an energized GOP will help GOP incumbents in red states — I’m looking at Conrad Burns here.

UPDATE: It looks like the GOP surge may be real — Gallup has the Democrats up by 7 in the generic ballot question. Remember that the generic ballot almost always favors the Democrats, and the Democrats have had a double-digit lead for almost this entire electoral cycle. If it’s closing to single-digit territory, that means that the Republicans seem to be closing the sale. The Democrats are still radically out of phase with the American mainstream, so it’s not all that surprising that the American electorate are starting to think about what the consequences of a Democratic takeover would really be.

It’s still going to take every GOP voter getting to the polls, but the GOP’s turnout machine is the best it’s ever been.

Cardin/Steele Tied?

A SurveyUSA poll supposedly shows the Maryland Senate race in a 47-47 tie. Now, one should take this with a grain of salt as the internals haven’t yet been released, but this result doesn’t seem to surprise me all that much. Steele has run a strong, smart campaign against Cardin. Steele has the backing of several influential African-American leaders. If he can get even a small slice of the black vote, he has a strong chance at winning. While the polls have tended to show Cardin well ahead, I’m not entirely convinced that the polls are right on this one. Steele could very well pull a surprise upset.

The whole electoral landscape keeps shifting. I was sure that Tester had it in Montana, but it looks like voters in that state are having some reservations about having the Senate potential go under Democratic control. Kean isn’t out of the race in New Jersey. Talent is still within the margin of error in Missouri. Corker seems to be pulling ahead of Ford in Tennessee. The numbers would seem to indicate that this race will be down to the wire in several key states.

It’s all going to come down to organization and turnout — fortunately the GOP is excellent at both. The question is will it be enough? That question may have to wait until Election Day or even beyond if the races continue to be as close as they are.

Wetterling’s Failing Campaign Of Sleaze

One of the more interesting House races has been the CD-6 race here in Minnesota, between state legislator Michelle Bachmann and child safety activist Patty Wetterling. Wetterling’s son was abducted 20 years ago, never to be seen again, and she’s a naturally sympathetic figure. However, Wetterling has done everything she can to squander that sympathy by running attack ads that are so odious that even the liberal Minneapolis press has been calling her on it. Wetterling has run a campaign ad that contains distortions of Bachmann’s record that are completely beyond the pale. Wetterling has run a campaign so dirty and so negative that Bachmann has a double-digit lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll — which is consistent with other polls showing Bachmann ahead.*

This has been one of the dirtiest and most disgusting campaigns, and Wetterling’s attack ads have bombarded Twin Cities airwaves for weeks now — the effect of which appears to have turned off voters to her. Thankfully in this state, sleaze just doesn’t sell, and Wetterling and the DNC are learning the hard way that cheap distortions and outright lies won’t save a sinking campaign.

* Except, of course, for the Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll which showed Wetterling ahead by 8 — which is why the Minnesota Poll is an unmitigated piece of garbage used strictly as DFL propaganda.

Kerry Apologies, Sorta

John Kerry has issued an apology for his comments yesterday at a California rally — far too late to avoid the damage he did. And as always, the apology contained an attack against the President, as anything Kerry says. (One wonders if he tells his staff “put cream in my coffee, and don’t screw it up like Bush screwed up Iraq.” The man is simply obsessed.)

Had Kerry apologized immediately, or recovered from his gaffe as he made it, the issue would have probably died down. Instead, Kerry chose to fight, reminding GOP partisans why they don’t like the Democrats, and forcing Democrats to disavow his comments. Kerry could have brought some attention to key races, but instead the message has shifted, and he’s left candidates high and dry.

Kerry is simply politically tone deaf, and even his attempt at an apology shows a fundamental inability to connect with the American people. Undoubtedly even the Democrats are hoping he disappears — and quick.

A Democratic Wave?

Charlie Cook is predicting that there’s a strong “Democratic wave” brewing. Jay Cost finds his analysis less than convincing. There’s a good chance that the Democrats will retake the House as the Republicans are simply fighting on too many fronts to have a truly strong chance. However, I wouldn’t count on there being a major “Democratic wave” either. As Cost notes, Cook is predicting a realigning election, which just doesn’t seem that likely:

Don’t get me wrong. I see where he is going with his race rankings. His latest generic ballot has the Democrats up a quarter century among the most likely voters. And he thinks that this voter disaffection is just going to overrun the Republican Party. He sees this as 1994 in reverse. But an examination of the races he views as competitive just does not square with 1994. It squares more with something like 1860, 1896 or 1932 – the last three “realignment” years.

What Cost is saying is that Cook is predicting that a very significant number of solidly Republican districts will flip this year — which has never happened except in the context of a realigning election. And there has never been a realigning election which has started in the House. Realigning elections happen in roughly 32-year cycles in American politics, shifting the partisan landscape around in fundamental ways. That just doesn’t seem likely in this case.

Despite all the Democratic triumphalism, the electoral landscape isn’t swinging very strongly. Neither party is particularly popular, and there’s no grand mandate for Democratic policies at play here. The Democrats are having their greatest amount of success in areas where they’re running conservative candidates — which is great if you’re a partisan cheerleader, but it hardly advances the Democrat’s ideological agenda. If the Democrats really smelled a realignment, they’d be far less ideologically constrained than they have been. The numbers don’t seem to show a realignment, and neither does the rhetoric.

Cook could be right in predicting a Democratic wave — but then we should be seeing races diverging, rather than tightening. So far, we’re just not seeing that kind of movement. Many key races are within the margin of error, or we’re seeing slight GOP gains. The Democrats have yet to close the deal, and what the polling doesn’t show is the efficiency and accuracy of the GOP turnout machine, which is already showing dividends in absentee voting. If anything, all this talk about how a Democratic win is practically inevitable may depress Democratic turnout in an electoral season when the Democrats need to get all their partisans to the polls.

Cost seems to have the better analysis here — the Republicans are undoubtedly down, but they’re not out, and talk of some massive Democratic “wave” seems to be all wet.

The Kerry Backlash Begins

It looks like John Kerry’s outbreak of foot-in-mouth disease has caused him to get treated like a bad rash by Democratic candidates. Senator Kerry was supposed to appear with 1st District candidate Tim Walz today in Mankato, but now Kerry will not show up. The fact that Walz is running in a conservative district with plenty of American Legion members undoubtedly was a major factor in this decision.

Kerry’s comments were bad enough — but his absolutely brainless response to them was like pouring gasoline on a fire. Rather than merely apologizing for being a bonehead, Kerry decided to launch into an incoherent and spittle-flecked attack on Republicans. Karl Rove didn’t make Kerry an idiot, and even if Kerry was misquoted (which I rather doubt), the comment was still stupid.

Kerry’s mouth is the gift that keeps on giving — the second it opens, something idiotic spews forth. Now the Democrats are on the run from their own previous Presidential nominee, and the voting public can have a clear view of what the Democrats really think.

Thank heaven that yutz isn’t President…

UPDATE: Now Harold Ford, Jr. is calling for Kerry to apologize, as is John Tester. So, are these two part of some vast right-wing conspiracy? Are they being dishonest for not saying that Kerry was misquoted? Or is it that there’s yet another double standard at play here?

What Kerry said was unconscionable, and it’s part of a long pattern of behavior. The more Democrats who rally to his defense, the more it cements the idea that the Democrats have issues with our men and women in uniform. It’s not at all surprising that Democrats who actually want to win are running from Kerry as fast as they can…

UPDATE: Presented without comment:

US Troops Pwn John Kerry