Category: Campaign 2006

Fox Calls For Cardin

Fox is calling the MD Senate race for Ben Cardin over Michael Steele. I hope that doesn’t play out, but it seems like Steele wasn’t able to pull it off. This was another one of the GOP’s long shot races, so it doesn’t change the balance of power much.

Still, this is going to be a long night for the Republicans.

Senate Update – Dems Win OH, PA, NJ

So far the Republicans have lost the two races that they were predicted to lose – PA and OH. NJ was a Democratic seat and always a long shot. The real race is just beginning — Allen is still holding his own, and the other races are still to be counted.

TN seems to be holding for Corker, although it’s too early to call it for sure. So far, everything is going the way one would expect, which means that the Republicans are poised to lose control of the House and the Senate still hangs in the balance.

Fox Calls For Menendez

Fox is calling the NJ race for Bob Menendez. That’s not unexpected, but there had been hopes that Kean would be able to pull it off.

Right now it looks like undecideds are breaking towards the Democrats — that’s very bad news for the Republicans in tight races.

On the other hand, so far all the races are proceeding along the lines one would have expected. Kean was a long shot, and Santorum was long predicted to be dead meat. The real test will be the VA race — if Webb pulls ahead, the Democrats might end up in control of the Senate.

This is still going to be a nail biter…

SANTORUM OUT

The networks are calling the Pennsylvania race for Bob Casey, Jr.

That’s a shame, as Rick Santorum has been a great public servant and a strong voice for the voiceless across the world. This is a win based on partisanship and nothing but, and this has been a loss for the people of Pennsylvania and the country as a whole.

Quick Senate Updates

Maryland: Word on the street is that there is heavy amounts of African-American crossover voting for Michael Steele. If Steele wins between 30-35% of the African-American vote in that state, he’s almost sure to win. This is a race to watch, as it could shift the balance for the Senate.

Montana: Turnout is supposed to be absolutely ridiculous — which is a good thing for embattled Senator Conrad Burns. Montana is a very conservative state, and while Democrats have made inroads at the local level, it’s only because they’ve fielded conservative candidates. Tester has run a strong campaign, but I’m in the camp that says that Montana residents are going to come back home to the GOP.

UPDATE: 6:64PM Central
Virginia: This one is going to be down to the wire. I’m watching the results come, and Webb is pulling just slightly ahead of Allen. However, that’s to be expected given that the larger urban areas will be the first to get counted. If Allen has enough turnout in the western and southern parts of the state he can win — if not, he’ll be in trouble.

UPDATE: 7:00PM Central
Virginia: The race has tightened again, with Webb ahead only by a small fraction. Because of the large amount of absentee votes in that race, it could be a long time before we have a definitive answer in that race.

Florida: Unsurprisingly, Katharine Harris is going down in flames. There’s a real shocker…

UPDATE: 7:15PM Central
Virginia: The talking heads on Fox are saying that Allen should have run a more ideologically-based campaign. That’s true, although I think he should have run a smarter campaign in general. Allen seems like he may just barely pull ahead, but this race should never have been this close. One certain loser is Allen’s aspirations for 2008 — after this, he’s damaged goods. He’d better hope that he keeps his seat.

National Exit Poll Leaks

There have been a few leaks of national exit poll data — no surprise there. So far, it doesn’t look good for the GOP. The Corner has the numbers, although NRO is having some serious technical difficulties.

Exit polls are unreliable and tend to favor the Democrats. We’ve already been warned about this — so all this says is what one particularly unreliable datapoint is saying. Everything is still in play, and it’s far too premature for the fat lady to start doing her warmups.

UPDATE: “Anything within 7 is probably a dead heat” — that seems about right to me. All these races are in play, and the exit polls aren’t worth anything. The fat lady is still firmly in her green room…

UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal (AKA the Mystery Pollster) has a good piece on why exit polling is so inaccurate.

MN-1 Looking Good For GOP

Word is that the Gutknecht/Walz race is not shaping out to be as close as the prognosticators had it. Now, keep in mind that early reports like the ones I’m hearing are unreliable, so anything can change, but it looks like my predictions that the race won’t be that close are roughly on track.

MN-1 is becoming less reliably conservative, but a hotbed of liberalism it’s not. It’s difficult to sample a House race, and it’s even more difficult to sample a House race in a quite heterogeneous district spread out over a wide geographical area like MN-1 (which basically encompasses Southern Minnesota). There are a lot of conservative rural voters who aren’t likely to answer pollster’s phone calls but vote as a matter of obligation.

Gutknecht was supposed to be running last election cycle as well, and I remember some dire predictions for him in 2002. The adage to remember here is to always keep in mind that incumbency is a powerful thing, especially in a rural district like the First.

We’ll see if those rumors continue to play out as the night goes on…

UPDATE: Just in case, if you’re a Gutknecht voter, don’t forget to vote. It could still be close, and it’s always better to be safe than sorry.