Category: Minnesota Politics

Election Day Coverage

As is traditional, I’ll be doing the usual Election Day live-blogging. Those of you in the Twin Cities can catch the Northern Alliance Radio Network on AM 1280 The Patriot this evening for live election coverage. Those of you who can’t get that station can also listen in on the live web stream.

So far, it’s looking good for the Republicans in the Senate. There was a probably false poll showing Santorum within 4 of Casey in PA — that poll is almost certainly inaccurate, but I’ve heard some internals that show a dramatic tightening of that race. Steele is still very much in the game, depending on how well he can motivate the African-American vote. Talent’s race in MO is going to be one to watch, as that one is on the cusp and could provide an edge to the Democrats.

The House will likely flip Democratic, but not by much. As bad as having the Democrats in charge in even a small way will be, two years of Speaker Pelosi will be enough to guarantee a GOP blowout in 2008. That is, of course, assuming that someone doesn’t pull a Brutus with her and ensure she’s out of the picture.

In Minnesota, I’m hoping that Pawlenty pulls through. Mike Hatch would be a disaster for this state, as Lileks puts it, he’s a mean, small man. Minnesota deserves better than that schlub. Still, I think enough Minnesota voters know who Pawlenty is and know who Mike Hatch is to see the obvious, especially in outstate and the metro. In my district, John Kline will beat Colleen Rowley like a rented mule. It won’t even be close. Rowley is an incredibly poor candidate who doesn’t have the brains to pull off her patronizing attitude. Watching the two of them debate was like watching Mike Tyson box Woody Allen — there’s just no contest.

The transportation amendment will go down, I hope. It’s a good idea in theory, but there’s no reason why what should be a statutory change needs to be made as a constitutional amendment. Furthermore, we don’t need any more funding for light rail. Either it succeeds on its own merits or it doesn’t. I’m not opposed to the idea of light rail, but not so big a fan of it that I’m willing to see more money sunk into a system that can’t sustain itself over the long term. The transportation amendment would be a sop to the metro area, while outstate Minnesota would end up subsidizing metro-area transit. Local problems need local solutions, and making Worthington and Waseca pay for transportation fixes to the Crosstown or more light rail between Minneapolis and St. Paul is simply a misallocation of dollars. Even though such a light-rail system would be nice personally, I don’t feel the need to force others to pay for it.

More updates as the day goes on.

UPDATE: For all those Republicans worried about today’s results, a little blast from the past:

Minnesota Poll Shows Pawlenty Ahead

OK, so it doesn’t, but that’s a fair reading of the latest Minnesota Poll which shows Hatch ahead of Pawlenty by 45-40 with a 3.2% MOE. The Minnesota Poll is always as accurate as a DFL push-poll would be, and undercounting Republican strength by 5-10% is not only possible, but almost a certainty when dealing with the Star-Tribune‘s infamously inaccurate polling.

Hatch’s meltdown (calling a reporter who dared to ask a difficult question a “Republican whore”) only further cements the idea that Hatch is a lose cannon, in comparison to Pawlenty’s “Minnesota nice” reputation. Hatch’s running mate, Judi Dutcher was caught not knowing a thing about the ethanol-based E85 fuel which is a major issue for Minnesota agriculture, which shows just how terminally unprepared she is. Most of Hatch’s support (30%) comes from hardcore DFL partisans who hate Tim Pawlenty because of the “R” behind his name. 14% of Hatch supporters are swayable, and I’m guessing that because of the partisan nature of the Minnesota Poll, those numbers are a lot bigger than the poll indicates.

Mike Hatch has shown his true colors, which is not going to help him with Minnesota voters. When it comes down to actually going into the precinct and voting, Minnesota voters are going to look back at the last four years in which Minnesota’s economy has done well and consider which candidate reflects the values of this state best, and vote for Pawlenty. Hatch is a lose cannon who deserves to lose. We’ve already had one thin-skinned governor with Ventura, the last thing we need is someone with the same temperament who doesn’t look as good in a feather boa. The fact that Hatch is within the MOE in the most biased poll in the country only shows how badly he’s likely to do.

Wetterling’s Failing Campaign Of Sleaze

One of the more interesting House races has been the CD-6 race here in Minnesota, between state legislator Michelle Bachmann and child safety activist Patty Wetterling. Wetterling’s son was abducted 20 years ago, never to be seen again, and she’s a naturally sympathetic figure. However, Wetterling has done everything she can to squander that sympathy by running attack ads that are so odious that even the liberal Minneapolis press has been calling her on it. Wetterling has run a campaign ad that contains distortions of Bachmann’s record that are completely beyond the pale. Wetterling has run a campaign so dirty and so negative that Bachmann has a double-digit lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll — which is consistent with other polls showing Bachmann ahead.*

This has been one of the dirtiest and most disgusting campaigns, and Wetterling’s attack ads have bombarded Twin Cities airwaves for weeks now — the effect of which appears to have turned off voters to her. Thankfully in this state, sleaze just doesn’t sell, and Wetterling and the DNC are learning the hard way that cheap distortions and outright lies won’t save a sinking campaign.

* Except, of course, for the Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll which showed Wetterling ahead by 8 — which is why the Minnesota Poll is an unmitigated piece of garbage used strictly as DFL propaganda.

What’s The Problem With Minnesota?

Ramesh Ponnuru looks at the political situation in Minnesota and wonders what is happening with the GOP. He notes the apparent closeness of the Hatch-Pawlenty race (it isn’t that close), the apparent closeness of the Bachmann-Wetterling race (ditto), and the fact that Mark Kennedy is getting his butt kicked by Amy Klobuchar (which, sadly, he is) and wonders whether Minnesota is really going purple.

For one, one has to realize that the Minnesota Poll is a pile of crap, and is invariably wrong. The same holds true for the Humphrey Institute polls. Both have methodological biases that produce a Democratic bias in the double digits. They’re great for DFL propaganda, but they almost never serve as accurate predictors of the actual outcome of the race.

What Ponnuru misses is the ground game: the DFL doesn’t have one, and the Republican Party of Minnesota has an excellent one. In 2000 the GOP started working on better organization, better outreach, and better GOTV. That didn’t help Rod Grams, who was running against the Star-Tribune rather than the incompetent Mark Dayton. (Dayton was such a bad candidate that he chose not to run again, his tenure in the Senate being an abject joke.) In 2002, that ground game got better, seeing a major GOP push that put the GOP in control of several state-wide offices. 2004 also saw a strong push, just not enough to defeat the state’s natural Democratic tilt.

That ground game makes a huge difference, and that’s why I’m confident that the polls showing Hatch ahead are off by a significant margin. Hatch is a poor candidate — many DFLers don’t even care for him due to his flip-flopping on abortion. Pawlenty is charismatic, smart, and politically savvy. Between that, the benefits of incumbency, and the GOP ground game, Hatch is toast.

Mark Kennedy’s problems are much more severe. Amy Klobuchar is an eminently beatable candidate. She’s a lightweight on the issues, she isn’t good on the stump, and her record is atrocious. The problem with Kennedy is that he is a nice guy who doesn’t know how to campaign. He doesn’t have the same level of personal magnetism that a Pawlenty has, and when it comes down to two poor campaigners in a Democratic year, the Democrats will win. Klobuchar has built-in advantages with the female vote that hurts Kennedy even more. Kennedy left a safe House seat for a risky Senate run, and it looks like that gamble didn’t work for him. I think the polls showing a 20-point gap are complete BS and the race will be at most a 5-point race, but even that means that Mark Kennedy has almost no chance of victory unless Klobuchar gets caught selling crack to schoolkids to fund al-Qaeda.

However, I disagree that her seat is hers as long as she wants it. Klobuchar, like Dayton, won because of luck and the conditions being right. A strong candidate could easily unseat her. Someone like Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer or Rep. John Kline, should either wish to run, could unseat her. Klobuchar’s record as Hennepin County Attorney is mixed at best, and she’s unprepared for the reality of working in the Senate. I would look to her following Mark Dayton as a one-term Senator.

I haven’t been following the Bachmann-Wetterling race that closely, but Patty Wetterling’s ads have been nothing short of despicable. Her lies about Bachmann supporting a flat tax that would “raise taxes 23%” are blatantly false, and her attempts to capitalize on the Foley affair will only give her a short-lived boost. Bachmann is in a very friendly district, and the last round of polling is based on a demographic profile that doesn’t match the district as a whole. Bachmann seems likely to eke out at least a slim win.

There is no doubt that it’s a bad year to be a Republican in Minnesota, but the political tides are still turning. The RNC is smart to pick Minnesota as the location of the 2008 National Convention — if either McCain or Guiliani run, Minnesota is one of the states that could conceivably move over to the red column for the first time in decades.

Twin Cities To Host 2008 GOP Convention

The Twin Cities will be the host of the 2008 GOP National Convention, in a move likely designed to bring Minnesota into the national GOP column. I’m not sure that strategy will necessarily be successful, but 2008 will certainly be an interesting year. Then again, I’d better count on having one hell of a commute that week…

UPDATE: Apparently the convention will be at the XCel Energy Center in St. Paul — which is appropriate given that current Senator Norm Coleman was instrumental in getting that venue built. The Center is the normal home to the Minnesota Wild pro hockey team, and has been the site of the state GOP conventions for the last few years. It will undoubtedly be an excellent venue for what is sure to be a very interesting race.

My hope is to blog from the floor as Rudy Guiliani gives his acceptance speech, but perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself there…

Is Klobuchar Responsible For Minneapolis’ Crime Surge?

Martin Andrade takes a dispassionate and logical approach to this question and finds that indeed, the Hennepin County DA’s office bears some responsibility for the massive increase in crime in Minneapolis in the last few years.

The typical DFL response — that cuts to state aid are responsible for the surge in crime doesn’t hold much water. St. Paul, a city right next to Minneapolis with an equally diverse population and many of the same basic problems, has seen crime rise at a rate lower than the national average of 2.5% for violent crimes. Yet St. Paul was also the “victim” of much of the same cuts in local assistance funds. Basic logic says that if one factor is predominantly responsible for an effect, it should have the same effect in all places where that factor is present. Yet that certainly isn’t the case.

Even if one accepts that it’s not totally fair to put all this on Klobuchar’s shoulders, and there are certainly a number of factors which have exacerbated the level of crime coming out of Minneapolis, she is still the DA of Hennepin County. She is still responsible for prosecuting criminals, and if a bunch of recidivists start committing crimes in her jurisdiction that is not a very positive recommendation of her skills. I think Andrade’s argument is quite right: the actions of the DA’s office have indeed lowered the “opportunity costs” of crime to the point where violent offenders just aren’t sufficiently deterred from committing crimes.

Granted, the utter decay of the Minneapolis police force hasn’t helped — political correctness has tied their hands and there is no leadership at the top, betraying the hard work of those officers who want to do their jobs and do them well. Nor does it help that Minneapolis has an utterly dysfunctional political culture “led” by an ineffectual mayor and a City Council that consists of DFL hacks. Minneapolis is an always has been a one-party city — and look at where that’s led them. In contrast, St. Paul has done well under the Democrat-turned-Republican Norm Coleman and the moderate Democrat Randy Kelly. Now that St. Paul’s DFL base has turned against Kelly for the apostasy of supporting President Bush and elected yet another feckless hack, perhaps St. Paul will begin to see some of the same problems that Minneapolis has.

In any event, whether one lays the blame on Klobuchar’s feet or the Minneapolis political machine, the source ends up being the same: the DFL’s inability to do what needs to be done to run the city of Minneapolis. For too long Minneapolis has been a one-party town, and whenever a political party, be it Democrat, Republican, or otherwise is freed from the pressure of having to compete for office the result is a political system that serves itself rather than the public. (I’d argue that Sioux Falls was much the same way, except Sioux Falls is smaller and is more or less immune from the problems of a big city. If the trend in its local governance continues along with the amazing population growth around the city, that could change.)

Minneapolis is not well served by one-party rule, and the DFL’s complacency on key issues has made Minnesota as a state slowly slide more and more towards the GOP. As people take a good hard look at Klobuchar’s real record: what she’s actually accomplished rather than what she claims to have accomplished, her current position at the top of the polls may well begin to slide.

UPDATE: In the last graf, I meant to say Minneapolis rather than Minnesota – my mistake.

Is Minnesota Trending Away From Democrats?

The Pioneer Press had an interesting piece this weekend on how the political dynamics in Minnesota are still trending towards the GOP:

The national scene seems to portend Democratic gains in governorships and Congressional seats, possibly leading to Democratic control of Congress. Low job approval for President Bush and Congress result from a familiar litany of problems — endless conflict in Iraq, high energy prices, anxieties about international turmoil and ongoing domestic controversies over immigration and health care.

Democrats, however, have not quite closed the deal with American voters. Surveys reveal them as unpopular as Republicans. Democrats have yet to present an appealing alternative to the GOP agenda. It will be up to individual Congressional candidates — in Minnesota, most notably Senate aspirant Amy Klobuchar and 6th District House candidate Patty Wetterling — to make the case for change. So far, their national party has not carried that argument with likely voters.

Running directly contrary to this national current is the favorable trend for the GOP in Minnesota state politics. This trend is of recent vintage. Part of it stems from growing GOP party identification in the state, detected in a recent Star Tribune Minnesota poll. In addition, a peaceful state legislative session, a budget surplus, improved economic growth and job creation all help Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty and GOP state legislative candidates.

I would also had that the Republican Party of Minnesota is one of the most disciplined and effective political organizations out there today. When it comes to identifying voters and getting them to the polls, the state GOP has it down. This is also part of a national trend in which the GOP has been doing an excellent job in terms of GOTV efforts. The Democrats still retain a slight edge in party ID, but that edge is slipping. Part of it is due to the changing nature of the US electorate — the unions, which used to be the Democratic Party’s biggest asset, are slowly being replaced by a more independent workforce. Blue states are generally losing population, while Red states are gaining. Even with immigration and urbanization, the GOP still holds a slight demographic advantage.

As the article notes, it also helps that there are deep divisions just under the surface of the DFL. The DFLers I’ve spoken to have noted that there’s a pretty substantial divide between the urban liberals and the traditional Farmer-Labor voters. The war in Iraq has become a political litmus test here in Minnesota for Democrats just as it has been national, and candidates such as Amy Klobuchar who are trying to find a moderate path are getting pushed by hardcore anti-war voters. Discipline is key to a political party’s future, and the DFL’s divisions could slow down their ground game come election time.

That doesn’t mean that Minnesota is likely to go red any time soon. However, it does show that even in largely inhospitable political climates, a disciplined and effective political operation can still win. The unpopularity of the President doesn’t necessarily effect local races — in fact, it has a very small effect, if any. When it comes to having a solid ground game, the GOP is doing quite well, which is how so many state offices are held by Republicans despite Minnesota being considered a very blue state.

Good News For Pawlenty, Bad News For Kennedy

Rassmussen has their latest Minnesota polls up. In the governor race, Tim Pawlenty is trouncing Mike Hatch 46-36. Pawlenty has the support of 86% of Republicans, while Hatch only has the support of 68% of Democrats. It appears as though Hatch needs to shore up his base if he wants to have any chance of winning – although I don’t think Hatch has a particularly large chance against a relatively popular incumbant like Pawlenty.

However, Rassmussen also has some bad news for Kennedy, as their latest poll shows Amy Klobuchar getting some real momentum against Kennedy. They have Klobuchar hitting the 50% mark, with Kennedy trailing at 38%.

I have a feeling that gap will close before Election Day, but it’s clear that Mark Kennedy has his work cut out for him. He’s been consistantly down in the polls, and even if the latest Rassmussen poll is a statistical outlier, Klobuchar’s level of support has been strong and steady. Kennedy is going to have to improve his own standings with both Republicans and independent voters before Election Day to have a realistic shot at winning. This will be one of the top races in the country, and it seems likely that both parties are going to be putting a large amount of money into either keeping or taking this open seat in an increasingly competitive state.

Another Setback For The Nanny State

Federal judge has thrown out a Minnesota law designed to fine youngsters who purchase video games rated for adults. (The text of the law can be found here.)

The Minnesota law differed from laws already struck down in other states in that instead of fining retailers, the Minnesota law tried to fine the minors who attempted to purchase the game. Obviously, that approach failed.

Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch once again demonstrated why we should all be glad he stands little chance of being elected governor:

Attorney General Mike Hatch said he was disappointed by the ruling and will probably appeal.

“There’s been some pretty good evidence that children who use these excessively violent video games really learn inappropriate behavior and they’re rewarded for inappropriate behavior – how many people do you kill and things like that,” Hatch said.

One wonders if AG Hatch ever played Cops and Robbers when he was a kid.

Unfortunately the ruling doesn’t appear to be on CourtsWeb at the moment, however, Judge Rosenbaum found little persuasive evidence of Hatch’s contention that violent video games are at all correlated with antisocial or violent behavior:

“There is a paucity of evidence linking the availability of video games with any harm to Minnesota’s children at all,” he wrote.

He also said: “It is impossible to determine from the data presented whether violent video games cause violence, or whether violent individuals are attracted to violent video games.”

This is another case of how the nanny state continually attempts (often with success) to infringe upon our civil liberties. Laws such as this are ultimately futile (how many violent video games are purchased by parents rather than children?), and only foster a climate of further government interference into the private affairs of citizens. Retailers can and should enforce the voluntary video games rating system and refuse to sell violent games to minors – but using the resources of the state of Minnesota to legally enforce such a thing is both an infringement on civil liberties and a waste of taxpayer money. There is no compelling government interest in such an affair, and Judge Rosenbaum’s decision to strike this law down was the correct decision.

Minnesota Senate Update

Captain Ed has some thoughts on the latest round of Minnesota polling, this time from a credible poll. SurveyUSA’s latest poll shows Pawlenty trouncing Democratic challenger Mike Hatch, and Mark Kennedy within striking distance of Amy Klobuchar.

I think SurveyUSA’s results are fairly accurate. I don’t think that Hatch has a chance in hell against the relatively popular Pawlenty, who’s polling at a healthy 50%. Pawlenty leads in nearly every demographic, even with minorities. Pawlenty has the kind of common touch that makes a successful politician, and while he’s had his rough moments (“health impact fee”?! Puh-lease!) his tenure in office has been a success for the state of Minnesota. Even if the people who still think the Independence Party matters all defect to Hatch, Pawlenty’s lead is still strong.

Mark Kennedy is only beginning to campaign, and he’s going to have a tough race against Klobuchar. Being 5 points down isn’t a great place to be, but that indicates that this race is still within striking distance. At the end of the day Klobuchar is running against Bush, despite the fact that his name isn’t on the ballot. Klobuchar’s position on the war, supporting a quick exit, but not a timeline for withdrawal, is the same as Kennedy’s (and everyone else’s for that matter). Kennedy will have a very tough race, but he can certainly still win.

One interesting point of commonality between the Minnesota Poll and the SurveyUSA poll is that Kennedy has a healthy lead in the 18-34 demographic, which is traditionally a Democratic-leaning demographic group. I’m not sure what the explanation for this is, although I suspect that the fact that Minnesota has produced a bumper crop of young Republican political activists in recent years may have something to do with it.

The Democrats are hoping that dissatisfaction with Bush will lead them to victory in Minnesota. However, the Republican Party of Minnesota has the organization to win, and the demographics of some of these races don’t seem very good for the Democrats. Much of it will come down to a combination of organization and drive – if Republican voters are motivated, the GOP could sweep Minnesota. If the Democrats prove to be more motivated (and Bush hatred is a powerful motivating force for them) Kennedy could be in deep trouble.

We’ll see how things work out as Election Day draws closer.