Who Is The Divisive One?

Another interesting nugget that defies the conventional wisdom comes from the latest Pew poll. The poll finds that more Democrats support McCain than Republicans support Obama, a finding that doesn’t surprise me. What does surprise me is this:

A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The “defection” rate among Obama’s supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton.

That shocks me. From what I’ve seen and heard, the Obama people hate Hillary Clinton. I would have expected a more lop-sided result going the other way. I’ve heard some Hillary supporters dislike Obama, but I’m surprised that a full quarter of them would support McCain over Obama. Now, this could well be another statistical outlier, but it does show just how wide the gap is becoming between Clinton and Obama. The Democratic Party is being held together by dislike of Bush, and now that Bush is fading away, it’s going to be much harder for the Democrats to stay coherent. This kind of intraparty political fighting is a natural consequence of embracing the politics of personal destruction. The longer the contest drags on, the larger the divide, and the harder it is for the Democratic nominee to start appealing to the center.

Rassmussen: McCain Leads Both Clinton And Obama

Rassmussen has started their daily tracking poll of the 2008 Presidential Election, and so far there’s been an interesting, but consistent result. The tracking poll shows that McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in head-to-head matchups. What’s more interesting is that McCain’s lead is actually wider against Obama, 5% to 3% against Clinton. Also of note is that McCain’s favorable rating is slightly higher than that of Obama and his negatives less. For all the praise that Obama gets from the media, it’s curious that he isn’t blowing McCain out of the water at this point. Then again, on deeper reflection, perhaps it isn’t that surprising a result.

The ever-astute Stuart Rothenberg
thinks that McCain may be able to escape the damage to the GOP brand. I think that’s right. The fact that many prominent conservative figures have deep issues with McCain, as a purely political matter, probably helps him. In such a divisive political season, McCain has a level of centrist credibility that no one else in the Republican field really had. That will be key to fighting against Obama (or perhaps Clinton).

I suspect there’s another factor at play here as well. That has to do with the fact that Obama really has nowhere to go but down. The essential problem that Obama faces is that he plays very well with the Democratic base. He’s reliably anti-war, populist and liberal. But while McCain has been reaching out to the center, Obama suddenly has to tack to the right to remain viable in the general election. What happens when a candidate has to change their spots? The contradictions start catching up to them. Obama claims that he never said that his NAFTA position was a political calculation. Yet internal Canadian documents show that his advisors said exactly that. Now Obama has to explain himself, and it’s not looking pretty. There are plenty of skeletons in Obama’s closet that the Clinton’s haven’t pulled out (probably because of the large number of skeletons in their closet). You had better believe that Obama’s tenure in the corrupt world of Chicago machine politics will be coming back at him soon.

The conventional wisdom is that Obama will pull in a huge number of independents and even Republicans. Then again, we heard that about every Democratic candidate. Remember all the Republicans coming out of the woodwork to endorse John Kerry. As it turned out, more Democrats supported Bush than Republicans supported Kerry. Obama’s hype machine makes it sound like Sen. Obama is practically the Second Coming—but when it comes right down to it, he’s just another politician.

Now, I would be greatly remiss is I didn’t say what I always say about polling this far out: it usually means nothing. However, the Rassmussen poll shows a definite and surprising trend, and if it plays out it could mean that the Republicans lucked out in selecting the “maverick” McCain as their nominee. In a season with a diminished Republican brand, the GOP needs to be able to reach out to moderates without sacrificing key conservative positions. Sen. McCain is the candidate best equipped to do that, and he may even be more credible in reaching out than his radically liberal competitors across the partisan divide.

Watch For Flying Pigs And Imps On Ice Skates

I almost feel sorry for Hillary Clinton after tonight’s debate.

Hillary Clinton’s strength came from the fact that during the Clinton years she had a sympathetic media willing to carry her water. Tonight, we saw what Hillary is without her fawning media—and it isn’t pretty. Obama was Mr. Cool, was clearly in command and was clearly acting exactly like a frontrunner should. Hillary was not. She cackled inappropriately, she got flustered, and her lines of attack just didn’t work.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Hillary will not last beyond the Ohio and Texas primaries, and she’ll lose both of them. The 2008 match will be between Barack Obama and John McCain.

The Clinton years are over, at long last.

Stick A Fork In Her…

I just don’t see how Hillary Clinton can come back from a loss like this. If she loses Texas or Ohio, she’s toast, even with the superdelegates.

It will be a great day for the country to see the Clinton dynasty fall—except when the Obama hype meets the reality of a candidate far outside the American mainstream, all the platitudes in the world won’t account for much. And when that day comes, Hillary Clinton may ultimately be the benefactor. In some ways, if the Democrats wanted to rid themselves of Clintonism it would have been better to let her run and lose than potentially end up being able to say that she told them so…

Are The Democrats Getting The Electability Question Wrong?

Democratic pollster Mark Penn makes the case that Hillary Clinton is more electable than Barack Obama. Despite all the Obama hype, his analysis may very well be right. The dynamics of this cycle seem to be a reversal of 2004—the Democrats gave up their candidate of passion (Howard Dean) and settled for the guy that they thought could best win (John Kerry). Now, they’re doing the exact opposite, voting for the candidate they feel passionate about but also the candidate with the least experience and the most unknowns. While that’s not a foolish choice, it may still be the wrong one.

Penn argues:

[Hillary] has outperformed at the ballot box throughout her career. She will neutralize the argument on national security so the election will turn on her ability to manage our economy and reform healthcare. The GOP will not be able to increase her negatives in a way they can with an untested candidate. And Hillary’s core voters – working class, women, Latinos, Catholics – are exactly the voters that comprise the key swing voters the party has needed in the past to win.

Remember that analysis if Obama wins the primary. Obama’s appeal is with the new Democratic base—but the new Democratic base is frequently at odds with the old working-class Democratic base. If Obama wins, and it’s looking like he’s got the momentum now, the result could well be a Democratic Party that’s just as split as if Clinton wins. The new Democratic base of urban liberals and minority voters have drunk the Obama Kool-Aid, but Obama can’t win unless he truly broadens his appeal—and the big question is whether his platitudes can take him over the top. The Democrats are betting that Obama can pull it off—but that bet may not be nearly as solid as they would think.

UPDATE: As a commenter rightly points out, Mr. Penn is Clinton’s pollster, so his comments should be taken with a grain of salt. Even though he’s a biased party, there still seems to be some real substance to his analysis.

The Potomac Primaries

Tonight was a good night for John McCain and Barack Obama, and not so good for Hillary Clinton. Captain Ed live-blogged the results as they happened.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in trouble. Obama has all the momentum and is now indisputably the front-runner. Neither Clinton nor Obama have ever run a truly competitive campaign, and Obama’s natural magnetism is giving him a decisive edge. Without her air of inevitability, Clinton is in the fight of her life.

Still, I would not count Hillary out. I don’t at all think that Obama is the superstar that the Democrats have made him out to be. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Obama is in fact the more vulnerable candidate. Obama has two huge problems: he’s incredibly inexperienced, and his appeal is quite literally skin deep. Obama is painting himself as a candidate above politics, but that doesn’t work. Sooner or later Barack Obama will have to stop spouting platitudes and start getting real, and he’s not prepared for that in the slightest. Especially now that it’s clear that McCain will be the GOP nominee, this contest will be one that is about clear differences: the young liberal activist versus the elder statesman and American hero. Sorry, Obamamaniacs, but your guy is all fluff. Either candidate will give McCain a very tough run, and he could blow it, but I think that the Obama hype machine is blowing a great deal of smoke up our collective posteriors.

Still, I do take some comfort in watching the collapse of the Clinton political dynasty. For years we on the right have been excoriated for criticizing the Clintons for being a bunch of amoral hyper-political sleezebags. Our friends on the other side of the aisle are about 15 years behind in realizing it, but it’s nice to know that we’re finally vindicated in that belief. Then again, the way in which the Clintons have gone from liberal paragons to persona non grata is more than a little Orwellian…

This race is going to be quite the interesting one, and even though some conservatives are disappointed that McCain is the nominee, I’m starting to come around to the idea that he’s the best possible candidate for these times. This summer will be quite fun to watch, and hopefully we’ll see some real fireworks—although most of them will be from the intra-party civil war on the Democratic side.

Live From Super Tuesday

I’m at my local caucus site, and GOP turnout is high–even I’m surprised at how many people are here. No clue as to which candidates are ahead, but Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have the most presence here tonight. No overt support for McCain that I’ve seen yet. If my connection works, I’ll have more as things develop.

UPDATE: The precinct was packed! I’ve never seen turnout like this. The votes are being counted now. Results when they come in.

UPDATE: Looks like Romney is cleaning up. Romney 48, McCain 15, Paul 6, Huckabee 6.

UPDATE: Romney may have done well in my precinct, but nationally he’s getting creamed. He’s said that he will fight on, but it seems quite unlikely that he’ll have a path to the nomination after tonight.

The Caucus was absolutely packed. There were 75 people in my small precinct, and the auditorium with the general assembly was filled, and an equal number of people were waiting outside. American democracy is alive and well. The demographics were all over the place—young voters and old voters, men and women alike.

UPDATE: Ed Morrisey liveblogged the caucus

As a side note, did Bill Richardson suddenly grow a beard or is it his twin from the mirror universe?

For the record, I voted for McCain. I’ll explain that later.

UPDATE: The Democratic race is as close as everyone thought it would be. I have a feeling that this could be leading to a brokered convention—which has to have Howard Dean screaming a “YEARGH!” of pain at the moment.

UPDATE: Minnesota has been called for Romney. Obama has also won convincingly against Clinton, with Obama taking 66% and Clinton 33% with 51% of the vote in. That’s a much bigger spread than I would have guessed.

UPDATE: 10:52PM CST: It’s looking more and more like Clinton will win California—but the results aren’t in yet. It’s also looking like McCain will win both Missouri (narrowly) and California (by a large margin). For once this election cycle, the pundits seem to be on track. McCain has a convincing lead with the Republicans, and Clinton is narrowly ahead of Obama.

McCain has a lot of work ahead of him in reassuring skittish conservatives. Appearing at CPAC is a good idea—but what McCain needs to do is be honest about points of disagreement and be prepared to talk about a shared conservative agenda. That means being much more reassuring about the sort of judicial appointments he’d make and standing strongly for an enforcement-first border policy. McCain needs the help of conservatives to win, and he’s got a lot of ground to cover.

McCain’s Pre-Super Tuesday Message

I got this email from John McCain as a reminder to vote in tomorrow’s Minnesota caucus:

Like me, Mike Christian was shot down and captured in Vietnam. As his cellmate, I watched as Mike began to collect little scraps of red, white and blue cloth, and with a needle fashioned from a splinter of bamboo, he sewed an American flag on the inside of his blue prison shirt. Every afternoon, my fellow POWS and I would recite the Pledge of Allegiance to Mike’s flag. No other event of the day held as much meaning for us.

The prison guards soon discovered Mike’s flag – an offense for which he was beaten severely. Mike was returned to our cell and we helped him to the bare mattress in the room. After a few moments, with Mike still bloodied, broken and eyes nearly swollen shut, we watched in awe as he gathered his scraps of cloth and started sewing another American flag.

We must never forget those Americans who, with their courage, with their sacrifice, and with their lives, have protected our right to vote.

For all the criticism Sen. McCain’s gotten—much of it well deserved—messages like this remind us of who he is not only as a candidate, but as an American.

The Banality Of Hope

Barack Obama’s campaign is one of the most banal Presidential campaigns in decades. It isn’t that Sen. Obama is a dumb man—quite the opposite is true. Yet his campaign is about the most gauzy and indistinct principles: “Change we can believe in.” Change is meaningless. Turning the US into a Hinduist theocracy would be “change.” Forcing every male above the age of 30 to wear tube tops 365 days a year would be “change.” Just being for “change” boils down for being for nothing in particular. Obama is avoiding taking sides on critical issues because if he did he’d have to enter the fray, and then he’s lose many of the advantages that have taken him this far.

Barack Obama Official small.jpg

There’s a reason why Barack Obama is running such a banal campaign—because Barack Obama is not a post-partisan uniter, but a doctrinaire liberal. In fact, he was recently determined to have been the most liberal member of the Senate in 2007. Obama is intelligent enough to know that being open with his views would ensure his defeat. There are more self-identified conservatives than self-identified liberals in this country. No outright liberal candidate has won the Presidency in the United States since Lyndon Johnson. The most successful Democratic politician of the last 25 years (and now Obama’s biggest enemy) was Bill Clinton, and he ran not as a liberal but as a Third Way “New Democrat” who would not expand government but “reinvent” it. Obama’s campaign is not based on his record because his record would put him at odds with most of the country. Instead, Obama has wisely decided to make himself appear “above the fray” and run on meaningless slogans like “change we can believe in” and “yes we can.”

Obama also clearly has to deal with the issue of race. This puts Obama in a difficult position. He cannot emulate the race-baiting politics of a Jesse Jackson or an Al Sharpton. He needs a broader base of support. At the same time, Obama is presenting two different faces to white voters and black voters. This South Carolina radio ad makes the disparity clear. The tone of that ad is specifically targeted to black voters. For a candidate that is trying to bridge the racial divide, this ad plays into the politics of racial division.

It is hard to argue that Obama’s different approaches aren’t tactically wise. Black voters and white voters have very different views of the nation, and Obama probably couldn’t get away with running the same ads to both communities. Even though that approach is understandable and politically smart, it still puts into question whether Obama genuinely wishes to bridge racial divisions in this country, or whether he’s making a political choice. Sooner or later Obama will be forced to reconcile these two public faces, and when he does it could compromise both.

Ultimately, what makes Obama so troubling is that he’s putting out the political equivalent of junk food. His silky-smooth and tasteful rhetoric is ultimately full of calories, but has no nutritional value. A President must make hard decisions. They must not only talk about “change” but about facing down the real issues that effect the lives of voters. The American public deserves something more than smooth talk—they deserve real and substantive answers. Will Barack Obama continue to govern along the same far-left liberal lines as he has voted in the Senate? How will Barack Obama deal with the threat of terrorism? How will he deal with the impending insolvency of Medicare and Social Security? Talking about “change” is not an answer. Saying “yes we can” is not an answer. The American people deserve real substance, and Senator Obama is feeding us empty calories.

Obama’s appeal is not difficult to understand. There is something refreshing about a candidate willing to use the spirit of American optimism rather than wallow in the pessimism and division that has become all too common with Presidential candidates these days. At the same time, mere optimism isn’t enough. Obama has been called the Democrats’ Reagan, and in some ways that comparison is apt. However, Reagan’s rhetoric was optimistic but substantive. Reagan was a surprisingly deep thinking and had a lengthy history of speaking out on particular issues and years of executive experience. Barack Obama has none of those things, and being a Senator or less than one term and a state legislator before that does not adequately prepare one for the highest office in the land.

Despite Obama’s ethnic background, he is running a “white bread” campaign. By failing to address the issues he is charting a politically wise course, but one that fails his duties as a Presidential candidate. The American people deserve specifics, and Barack Obama is giving us banalities. It is one thing to have the audacity of hope, it is another to be politically brave and take the risks involved in being forthright with the American people. Obama is inspiring, he is a wonderful orator and he is certainly intelligent and capable. However, that is not enough to qualify him to be the President of the United States, especially not in such a crucial time. He brings many positive things to the table, but not the requisite experience to lead. The heart of leadership is not in telling people what they want to hear, but in taking positions and defending them. Barack Obama has not done this, and that is why he is not yet suited to be President.