The networks have been playing it safe, but it’s now no longer mathematically possible for Kerry to win in Florida. ABC and CBS have both called the Sunshine State for President Bush. Right now it’s all about Ohio. If Ohio goes, it’s just a question of how big Bush’s margins will be…

President Bush has just pulled ahead in New Hampshire by a few hundred votes… if this is an indication of the way things are going, that narrow Bush win is just a bit more likely. It’s clear the exit polls were completely off, and Bush’s narrow leads are adding up to the point where the momentum is clearly on the side of the President. Right now Bush is not behind in any state he needs to win, which is a sign that Kerry is in deep, deep, deep crap…

So far Bush is at 193 EVs to Kerry’s 112 EVs. Right now Bush needs to win FL, OH (both trending his way, thankfully), CO, AZ, NV, MT, and ID, and he’s at 271 and it’s all over. All of those states are states that he won in 2000. That’s without NM, any of the Upper Midwestern states, or NH. Which essentially means that Bush has an absolutely excellent shot at winning here. I’ll resist the temptation to call it now, but we may have something shortly. If Florida gets called for Bush (which seems almost certain now), the fat lady better be waiting in the wings for Kerry…

Bush is outperforming the exit polls nearly everywhere, which is very good. Bush is ahead in Florida, although Broward and Palm Beach (heavily Democratic counties) haven’t been counted yet. However, Bush’s margins in Florida have increased since 2000, which is very good news for the President.

Bush has also pulled ahead in Ohio. If Florida and Ohio go towards Bush, that puts Kerry at a serious disadvantage. If Bush then wins another Midwestern state it will be over. Then again, that assumes that we’ll know the outcomes in states like Ohio and Florida tonight, which is never certain with all the variables such as lawsuits that could get in the way.

Also, the massive youth turnout that everyone and their dog was predicting didn’t happen based on exit polling – exactly as I’d been predicting.

More as the election continues…

The networks have called the OK Senate race for Republican Tom Coburn…

Early reports have Bush ahead in Florida and Ohio – if this holds it’s a good sign that we won’t have to worry about the nightmare of President Kerry…

Kerry’s ahead with 77 EVs to 66, but that’s thanks to all the states that Kerry was going to win anyway. Watch Ohio and Florida for a reference to how things are going to go overall…

Despite the thought that the economy might make West Virginia a swing state this year, the various media outlets are calling West Virginia for the President.

Not a big surprise, but nice nevertheless. Right now that yields a result of Bush 39/Kerry 3 in the Electoral College. I’d love for those margins to hold.

Ohio’s polls are now closing… if Bush takes Ohio, Kerry is in deep trouble. If Bush takes both Ohio and Florida, Kerry’s chances will get very slim very fast…

Bush just won GA, IN, and KY for a total of 34 EVs. Kerry has Vermont with 3.

If things go as I’ve heard, this election may not last as long as I figured it would…

Red State is reporting that GOP pollsters are confident of a Bush win in Ohio and Florida, and that Pennsylvania is tied. My sources (such as they are) are saying the same thing.

Polls are still open, so don’t get cocky, but be confident.

Some better numbers are trickling in. Kerry is ahead by 1 in Florida and Ohio, and Colorado is tied.

Why is this good news for Bush? Because early exit polls tend to show increased Democratic numbers than the final count. At this point in 2000 Gore was also even in Colorado, and Bush won by 9. Early exit polls had Gore up by 3 in Florida, and Bush (narrowly) won that state and would have won by a larger margin had the networks not called the state before the polls in the heavily-Republican panhandle had closed.

In other words, if the only lead Kerry has in Florida and Ohio is 1% now, there’s a good chance that Bush will take those states. The overall electoral situation remains unclear, and will until later this evening. Right now any information we get will be inaccurate and incomplete. In some ways, it’s best to tune everything out for the next two or three hours until real data comes across – then again, political junkies like myself will hardly be able to do that…