Steven Den Beste analyzes
the fallout of Turkey’s refusal to allow US troops to attack from Turkish territory. It’s clear that whatever sweetheart deal the Turks have been given by United States in exchange for cooperation has now gone down the drain.
Turkey has always been a relatively unstable democracy. Den Beste wonders if we won’t see another series of military interventions by the Turkish military, similar to other incidents in Turkish history. The ruling AKP leans further to the Islamic end than most in the Turkish military would like, and worries over the potential for Northern Iraq to break away into an independent Kurdish state are likely to be foremost on the minds of Turkish military planners.
Either way, this spells the downfall of the AKP in Turkish politics. The US is no longer going to bend over backwards to provide aid to Turkey, and will no longer support Turkish entry into the EU. The US can use its influence to make it clear that the IMF will not bail the Turks out when their economy goes south, which will only lead to more popular revolt against the AKP. The worst-case outcome in all of this is the rise of a more stringently Islamic party – an event which would quickly result in the same kind of military intervention that occurred in the early 80’s. At best, the AKP will quickly fade away, and a more open and accomodating party will take their place. In the meantime, however, it appears as though this choice will have some strong negative consequences for Ankara.