It’s become a tradition for me to do some predictions for the coming New Year. So, here’s my list of things that I think will happen in 2004. At the end of the year, we’ll see how I did…
* Howard Dean wins the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, narrowly wins in South Carolina, and sweeps up on Super Tuesday, leaving the other Dems in the dust.
* Ronald Reagan dies. Howard Dean says some exceptionally unkind things about Reagan to the press and turns off the female vote, crippling his campaign.
* Dean picks
Al Gore Bob Graham as his running mate. (Yes, I know I’m already changing my mind… however, this one makes more sense in the end.)
* By Election Day, the NASDAQ will be over 2,500 and the Dow will be over 12,500.
* The 2004 Olympics in Greece will see a major terrorist event caused by lax security.
* Israel will complete the security fence, despite cries against it. Suicide bombings will drop dramatically.
* Yassir Arafat will die suddenly, causing a Palestinian Civil War which ends with Hamas taking control of the Palestinian leadership. Any hopes for the "road map" will be dashed, and Palestine will degenerate into virtual anarchy.
* Hackers will break into an e-voting system and try to change votes from Bush to Dean, causing a major scandal that forever tars electronic voting.
* Al Sharpton will run as a third-party candidate and take significant chunks of the black urban vote from Dean.
* The 2004 campaign becomes one of the dirtiest in history, thanks to groups like MoveOn.org.
* The Iranian theocracy collapses due to a massive popular revolt.
* Bush will win the Presidency by a large margin of the popular vote and a tall margin in the Electoral College (more election predictions later.)
* Syria announces it will unilaterally remove its WMD programs in the face of increasing US pressure.
* Pakistan and India continue their raproachement over Kashmir despite assassination attempts on both leaders. Musharraf and Vajpayee win the Nobel Peace Prize for their work.
* Mobile blogging will take off as cell phones begin to support blog updates. (This is already possible, in fact.)
* Linux will become an increasingly common corporate desktop, causing Microsoft to cut prices dramatically.
* Apple will announce cheaper mini-iPods in January priced around $150. Sales will go through the roof, sending Apple stock through the ceiling.
* Recordable DVD/PVR devices will become the hot gadget of the year as they begin to fall in price. Ad-skipping and time shifting will cause more advertisers to move to product placements in shows that can’t be skipped.
* I’ll finally release version 1.0 of BloGTK.