Testing The Crystal Ball

Well, 2003 is almost out the window and it’s time to review how well I did in my 2003 predictions. Some of them were fairly good, and others… well, weren’t.

Saddam Hussein didn’t fall until April, and the WMD issue is still open. At this stage, Saddam’s WMDs could be anywere, but I still see no persuasive evidence that they did not exist and plenty that they did. You don’t order nerve agent antidote from Syria for no reason, nor do you train your troops to use weapons you don’t have. However, there’s evidence that e-bombs may have been used in the conflict. Iran is still in the grips of a theocracy, although it’s only a matter of time before that government falls. Ditto for the Saudis. Thankfully, my predictions of major open war between Israel and the Palestinians didn’t come to pass although there still worries of that happening.

My predictions about Europe were also a mixed bag. Germany did abandon the Maastricht Treaty, although Schroeder managed to keep ahold of power despite his party losing some major elections. Also, the Euro has climbed dramatically rather than falling, which only proves that the health of a currency isn’t necessarily tied to the health of an economy. I was right on the Euro referendum, although it was Sweden, not the UK that told the Eurocrats to shove off.

I was right that the US economy would rebound, and now that the NASDAQ is above 2,000 and the Dow above 10,000 it looks like things are definitely looking up from where they were before.

Of course, I was right about Return of the King breaking box office records, but that’s hardly a surprise. Finally, a Hollywood movie that deserves every dollar it made.

My technology predictions were off. Active paper remains an elusive dream, although organic LEDs are on the horizon. Linux is taking off like a rocket in the Third World, but Video on Demand still isn’t as popular as it could be – even though it is available in some markets already.

So, not too far off, but not exactly Nostradamus either. We’ll see how the predictions for next year turn out in December 2004…

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