Iowa Caucus Update I

It’s looking like Edwards got a considerable surge from the Register endorsement, and this could take his candidacy from a longshot to a contender.

The unfolding story appears to be Dean’s weakness and Kerry’s strength. Dean is doing nowhere near as well as it was thought he would do – this could be the end of the Dean machine. It is clear that Kerry is benefitting from a Dean backlash and the perception that Dean is unelectable. Kerry offers less anger and more gravitas, and that may be fueling his surge, as well as his improved fieldwork.

Iowa may radically alter the field – if Dean loses New Hampshire the honeymoon is over, and the Dean machine will have lost the momentum that looked to be carrying him to the nomination. The CW had Kerry as the nominee early – this may be a vindication of the CW over Dean’s angry liberal campaign.

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