ElectionProjection.com has a very interesting map of the 2004 election if it were held today. In essence, the Democrats would get hammered in one of the biggest electoral losses in recent history.
Of course it won’t stay that way, and likely the election will be much closer than this, but it does illustrate just how far the Democrats have to go and bursts the myth that Bush is an unpopular President.
Interesting map, considering that there’s a section labeled “next states to turn red” and lists among the 3 most likely…wait for it…CALIFORNIA.
Jay, if California goes to Bush just send me a copy of this post and I swear I’ll donate $50 to your site.
You’re looking at a map showing results based on polls done no later than a week after the beginning of Democratic voting (not counting DC). The race is still up for grabs, and funds on the Left are still being split among the five viable candidates. “If the race were held today” is pretty meaningless when the conditions that will surround that race haven’t even appeared on the horizon, except to gauge public perceptions of the candidates at that particular moment. But then, we all already knew that. So why the gloat?
Even I don’t think that California will go to Bush, but if it does, believe me, I’ll remember this… 🙂
So, while we’re on the subject of Bush’s popularity, wanna explain how Newsweek’s poll could have him DOWN less than a week after the mythic SOTU “bounce” and with re-elect numbers at 53% against?
Because Newsweek’s poll is a statistical anomaly. No other poll shows those kind of numbers, and most polls show quite the opposite. Newsweek’s results could be the result of a biased sample, bad polling methods, bad questions, or any number of factors. Bush’s overall ratings, while not stellar, are still strong.