Hindrocket at Powerline laments Bush’s poll numbers arguing a much grimmer perspective than actually exists. If the election were held today, Bush would be in trouble.
But the election is eight months away, and Bush has not yet begun to fight. The same polls came out in 1984 about Mondale, and we all know how that turned out.
Deacon, also of Poweline, notes that the WaPo poll was skewed towards the Democrats, which isn’t surprising as it showed Kerry trouncing Bush in the South – something that’s as likely as me winning the next American Idol. Bush’s numbers aren’t anything to be singing about, but the doom and gloom scenarios some are proposing are rather premature.
If anything, these numbers can be seen as paradoxically helpful for President Bush. If you’re seen as a sure thing, people aren’t going to jump out to vote for you. The GOP needs the base, and there are a lot of Republicans who are thinking of staying home on election day. A good chunk of those will change their minds of Bush looks vulnerable – it’s one thing to make a stand against someone who has a chance to win without you – it’s entirely another to potential subject this country to four years of John F’in Kerry. So long as the Bush team can use these numbers to increase turnout, they’ll be something the Bush team can use to their advantage.
The other, and biggest reason I’m sanguine about these polls is that the American people have only seen the good side of John F’in Kerry. He’s had months of positive press and the aura of a winner from the primaries. That will fade fast as the scrutiny that had been focusing on others turns on him.
The only time it will be apropriate to write Bush’s political obituary is November 5, 2004… and then, God willing, it will be John Kerry who is defeated.