The Tipping Point

Will Hutton has an excellent piece in The Observer on the increasing economic and political problems in Europe. As he notes:

With all eyes fixed on the American presidential elections, the scale of the looming crisis in France and Germany has gone largely unremarked. But it may so change the political geography of Europe that British arguments for and against the EU will be made redundant. A pervasive sense of decline in both countries, only partially justified but none the less virulent, is destabilising not just the structures of the EU – but the political systems of France and Germany.

He notes the ongoing conflict between Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac in France’s UMP, as well as France’s unsustainably high levels of government spending, as well as Gerhardt Shröder’s political problems in Germany and the German government’s similarly high spending. Both France and Germany tried to have it both ways – taking the benefits of a dynamic, capitalist society while trying to also maintain a welfare state.

While such a system will work for a time, eventually the demands of the welfare state will overwhelm the ability of the economy to keep up. It’s burning the candle at both ends – as the population ages the demand on social services will only increase while the amount of people willing or able to work will continue to decrease. As the growth rate slows due to the ossified labor market, the economy falls further and further behind, forcing government to tax and spend more, only adding to the problems. At the point where a state reaches a level of government spending of over half their GNP, it’s clear that something must be done.

Even the traditionally strong German economy, the backbone of Europe, is faltering under these circumstance. The average unemployment rate for the EU is around 10%, and economic growth is half of that of the US. The effects of this are starting to be felt in European politics as Schröder’s SPD has been beaten in several regional elections. There is a rising tide of sentiment against these governments which have done very little to alleviate the ongoing economic problems facing Europe. Making things worse, the powerful trade unions have the ability to kill reform measures before they even have a chance, ensuring that politicians like Shröder and Chirac cannot dare make the radical changes necessary to prevent economic collapse.

Sooner or later, something must be done. France and Germany both desperately need a Thatcher, someone who will stand up to the labor unions and push through economic reforms. Had the UK not had the Iron Lady at 10 Downing Street, they would have been in the same position France and Germany are at now two decades ago – and would likely have never fully recovered.

The cure for the economic problems plaguing Europe are both simple but politically difficult – end the welfare state, slash government spending, lower taxes, end over-regulation, reform the labor market, and end the union’s unelected control over the economy. Of course, those solutions will never be accepted until the European economy is in shambles and there is little other choice. Worse yet, the pendulum could swing to a reactionary like LePen who would not only make things worse, but provoke massive social unrest in the process.

Europe is facing many hard choices at this point, but the governments of France and Germany are still trying to ignore many of the fundamental problems facing the European economy. Unless they find the political will to act and act fast, the situation will only grow worse.

6 thoughts on “The Tipping Point

  1. The example of Europe should be a warning to all in America. It is the example of what happens to people when they look to government to supply their needs versus taking responsibility for themselves. It is the example of what happens when people just want more and more government social programs, without realizing that it is the people who actually pay for these program; govt only can redistribute wealth, not create it. It is the example of people who become too dependent upon govt, getting addicted to it like a junkie to drugs.

    We should also keep in mind that this European model is the one Kerry cleary promotes and favors…Kerry thinks Europe represents a higher state of being. In reality, it represents a failed experiment in people abandoning personal responsibility.

    Pres Bush has it exactly right when he promotes the idea of an “ownership society” for ownership implies personal responsibility.

  2. “Europe represents a higher state of being”…Kerry is such a fool, let’s look at the statistics instead:

    1 Norway
    2 Sweden
    5 Netherlands
    6 Belgium
    7 Iceland
    8 United States

    the “ownership society” is very handy for people who actually own something…Just like when you were so happy about the value of real estate having increase over the last 4 years…Do you know that some people don’t actually own their houses, and that therefore the main effect of the rise of prices is mostly to push in the streets people with no possession, rather than giving a potential extra few thousands for people who would have to sell their houses (unlikely for most of them) to actually see their money increase…

    This concept of “ownership” is disgusting in every way. Granted, give everything to those doing nothing is stupid, and lead to a society where nobody is responsible for anything, not even their own life…but with Bush’s philosophy, you’d better possess something now, or you never will!

  3. This concept of “ownership” is disgusting in every way.

    Apparently the last century of history has completely been forgotten in Europe. Absolutely disgusting.

    For the record, home ownership in the United States is higher than it has ever been, especially among minorities. Nearly 70% of Americans are homeowners, nearly 20% more than in France. France’s unemployment is nearly 10%, ours is just over 5%. I could go on, but the point is clear.

    Apparently the failure of Communism never happened to some people.

  4. In reality, it represents a failed experiment in people abandoning personal responsibility.

    Before you make that assertion you need to realize that all the Scandenavian countries rate consistently higher than the US on the quality of life scale.

  5. vincent your comments regarding our legal system are really bothersome to me considering that you know nothing about our system. The comment regarding people in NY being held for 48 hours is quite normal.
    “The people rounded up in NYC for 46 hours, among which only 3% were leftist activists is a real scandal. Many by-goers, journalist and regular protesters have been gathered in a bus warehouse for 2 days without a lawyer, little food and a good concrete matelass. ”
    First of all I work in a jail and I can tell you how our Democracy works. when some one is arrested we can hold them for up to but not exceeding 48 hours. This is for the protection of the victum. we are allowed 48 hours to build a case.
    It is like this, lets say we gat a call on a guy who is beating his wife and kids and we go over there and catch him doing it. I am not sure what you do over there but here we have a ting about protecting the victums so we hold them until a judge decides if formal charges are being filed or not. That way we can PROTECT the victum. what does your country do? release them? I have read on the bbc and other news sites about problems over in europe regarding the legal system, you give more rights to criminals instead of victums. Just wait until you are a victum of a crime and see how you feel.
    And as far as given hardly any food or water that is complete bullshit. Our jails are so damn nice, anyone who is arrested is never going to like it and they are going to find something to lie or exaggerate.

  6. Todd,
    Thank you for bringing your point of view to the debate, but you obviously don’t want to see what really happened in this case: people have been kept for 48 hours without the right to give a phonecall AND over the 48th hour without the right to see their lawyers. As you explained it, it’s not legal.

    Then they had two choices:
    1-plead guilty for something they didn’t commit in order to just get out of there
    2-ask for a real trial, which can take months, during which they would have been kept in jail.

    Actually, if this had been a jail, this would have been totally different, with a lot more respect for official rules. the problem is that they have been kept in a former bus repairing warehouse with no specific accomodation for detention.

    What would you do as a regular protester? Stay 5 months in jail just to prove you ha the right to protest?

    The legal system in europe is protecting everyone. Your remark just proves two things:
    -how much you know about Europe, which is very close to zero. When one is caught beating up on anyone, it’s a “flagrant délit”, which means that the charges are already there. The legal system in most Europe (UK excluded) works the other way around the american system: the burden of the proof is on the people suing the other. Maybe for ethno-centrist reasons, I like this version a lot more than yours…Maybe also because you can never be faulsely accused of something you haven’t done, and cannot prove you haven’t done it since you haven’t done it…well, I guess both systems have their pros and cons.
    -How twisted your logic is: in a democracy, nobody is guilty until proven so. These people were not guilty, nor are the people in Gitmo (until proven so, of course). Why were they held for so long without any legal council? It’s illegal!

    Law is not an inflatable doll. She’ll slap back people fucking her without her consent. Bush,inc should be warned.

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