The Democrat’s "Operation Fortunate Son" that tries to dispute a 1978 campaign ad that stated that Bush was in the Air Force has now been refuted by a legitimate document that states he was enrolled in the Air Force for 120 days of flight training. If that weren’t enough bad news for the Democrats, the Air Force has also knocked down another Democratic smear attempt concerning a ribborn worn by Bush in a photo taken during his term in the Air National Guard.
The Democrats desperate smear attempts are completely failing to gain any ground. Unlike the Swift Boat Vets who managed to at the very least poke holes in Kerry’s Cambodia story, Bush’s story has always been consistant. He served in the Texas Air National Guard, and he completed his term of service before leaving to go to Harvard Business School. Unlike the Swift Boat Vet claims, the Bush smears had been investigated and found to be groundless as far back as 2000 when George magazine did a story on Bush’s ANG record.
Furthermore, Bush isn’t campaigning on his military record. If anything, he’s admitted that he is not proud of his past and that he did a lot of things he later regretted. He’s running on his record now and his plans for the future, unlike John Kerry who spent his convention flogging the ghosts of Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the reports from the Kerry campaign show that the problems of August have been magnified since the convention. Kerry has failed to find an issue that resonates with the American people, his attempts at economic populism are failing, and he’s pulling back from states he needs to win. With Kerry trailing in Ohio in nearly every poll despite Ohio’s weak economy, it’s clear something is very, very wrong with Kerry’s campaign. The attempts to attack Bush’s record are blowing up in his face, and they’ve sapped any chance Kerry would have to use the Swift Boat allegations to his advantage. Instead we’re getting a campaign that can’t find a message and seems to want to embrace the losing strategies of Howard Dean in a last-minute rush to sow up Kerry’s base.
I have been saying this election would be down to the wire since the beginning. If things keep up like this, that prediction may have to change. Kerry is slowly handing Bush an electoral blowout, and with states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin now within striking range for Bush and states like Ohio and Florida become redder and redder, the Kerry campaign’s ineptitude is shockingly like a certain other Massachusetts liberal who was steamrolled by a member of the Bush family.
Jay, its way to early for this kind of confidence. Have you check out this projection of the election’s final results? It’s still anybody’s game.
The site claims that we can’t make any worthwhile determinations about states that aren’t strongly in a candidates corner until October. (Due to the statistical noise that so many polls are creating). But if you want to speculate, the stats show that a total of 130 electoral votes are up for grabs with twenty of them dead even. As it shows that the projected score is 255 Kerry, 263 Bush, those twenty votes make or break the election for either candidate. And that’s assuming that Florida chooses Bush.
I certainly don’t think it’s over, but electoral-vote.com is a pro-Kerry site. I haven’t seen any credible polls that show OK or TN even remotely in Kerry’s camp. In fact, the trendlines in their own data don’t show that as being correct in those states.
The Federal Review composite poll or the Election Projection composite are the two I find to be the most credible.
There have been no polls (except worthless Zogby Interactive polls) from Florida since the beginning of the hurricane deluge. Nobody knows where the race stands in Florida right now, and it’s pretty safe to say that if Bush isn’t winning Florida, he isn’t winning re-election. Conventional wisdom would suggest the hurricanes will help Bush in Florida, as he and his brother get to swoop in and hand out fists full of cash with the inference that they “really had to pull some strings to get you guys this disaster relief you’re entitled to.” However, Floridians may not be quite so enamored when they put in their insurance claim and discover how woefully uninsured they were…specifically how little they’ll get back compared to what they had before the storm. When dealing with these bloodsucking insurance companies at the same time as listening to Dubya passionately profess how we need tort reform to protect the insurance companies from accountability against those predatory claim filers, it just may make some tomato-red GOPers from the three Republican strongholds that beared the brunt of the hurricanes discover George Bush may not be the candidate who has their best interests at heart.
I never suspected Kerry had a serious shot at Florida, particularly considering that Jeb is likely to disenfranchise tens of thousands Florida Democrats as he did last time. However, the aftermath of disaster (at least the long-term aftermath after all the tears are dried and the promises are made) generally doesn’t bode well for a public viewing the nation’s course in terms of right track or wrong track. If Kerry can reverse his current implosion, he may discover that Mother Nature was his friend in battleground Florida.
How can they be pro-Kerry when all they do is post polls that other institutions complete?
Also the latest poll the present is a 7-day Rassmuswen poll that was completed on September 12. Which may explain the drought of polling information from florida. See here for useless statistical speculation of florida’s results.
It’s all in the methodology and how you weight the polls.
Then again, after looking around there a bit, I’m starting to think their methodology isn’t that far off. What’s interesting are the trend lines in the swing states – they seem to match the trends I’ve been seeing informally. I’ll have to keep an eye out on that one and see if I can get more on their methodology…
Jay…keep looking the site boasts no methodology. They simply compile polls done by various industry respected pollsters into one place. The projected results are calculated using a Least-square means statistical analyis (hope I’ve got that name right) with each of the polls as a data point.
Which is why the site is meaniless until October, due to all the statistical noise generated from the theoretical errors. One could argue that the site won’t be representative even in October, or election day for the matter, due to the weight of past polls not sinking the a sudden peaks or troughs closer to election day.