Last week, Gallup’s laughably incompetent poll showed Bush up by eight points when the poll average was Bush by 3 or 4. Now that Bush is down to a five-point poll lead with Gallup, it suggests a reality of Kerry being behind by one or two, if not tied outright.
That plea comes specifically from seven cousins of George W. Bush who have formed a website urging people to vote for John Kerry. This betrayal goes along with not one but two newspaper endorsements for Kerry in the Texas county where Bush’s ranch is located (in Crawford and in Waco). It’s starting to look like the closer the association one has with George Bush, the less they can stand him.
Chris, my beef is their methodology consistently puts them anywhere from 3-7 points to the right of the poll average. Back in September, they were showing Bush leading by 14 points on the strength of a seven-point GOP party affiliation among poll respondents…hardly a representative sample. Furthermore, their likely voter models are always starkly different than their registered voter models, which seems like the product of poor methodology at this point in the race.
Last week, Gallup’s laughably incompetent poll showed Bush up by eight points when the poll average was Bush by 3 or 4. Now that Bush is down to a five-point poll lead with Gallup, it suggests a reality of Kerry being behind by one or two, if not tied outright.
“Please don’t vote for our cousin!”
That plea comes specifically from seven cousins of George W. Bush who have formed a website urging people to vote for John Kerry. This betrayal goes along with not one but two newspaper endorsements for Kerry in the Texas county where Bush’s ranch is located (in Crawford and in Waco). It’s starting to look like the closer the association one has with George Bush, the less they can stand him.
Mark, what’s your beef with Gallup methodology?
Chris, my beef is their methodology consistently puts them anywhere from 3-7 points to the right of the poll average. Back in September, they were showing Bush leading by 14 points on the strength of a seven-point GOP party affiliation among poll respondents…hardly a representative sample. Furthermore, their likely voter models are always starkly different than their registered voter models, which seems like the product of poor methodology at this point in the race.