Interestingly enough, The Rocky Mountain News is reporting that John Kerry is pulling out of Colorado. He’s pulled some ads from the state and scrapped a planned appearance in Denver.
Mathematically, that strategy might make sense for Kerry (I’d be spending lots of time playing defense in the Midwest and offense in Florida and Ohio if I were Kerry), but it certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence in his chances. You don’t pull ads unless your internal polls are telling you that there’s not a shot in hell of winning that state, which is why it appears that the fears of Bush losing Colorado may not be quite as substantive as they first appeared.
Colorado was always a pipe dream for Kerry. I’m surprised he’s held on this long. His chances would have been better in Arizona, and I’m surprised he went scurrying from that state after the first bad poll numbers. His biggest mistake thus far has been abandoning Arkansas so early. The latest poll shows it a tie, and the vast majority of other recent polls shows the state within the margin of error or slightly outside of it. I heard rumors of Clinton pulling a DeSoto and travelling up the Mississippi River to campaign for Kerry in traditionally Democratic friendly turf, eastern Arkansas included. Perhaps this could put my girlfriend’s home state back in play, although I’m doubtful about Kerry have any shot in Missouri at this point.
More bad news for Bush….
After steadily scoring five-point margins in the ABC/Washington Post tracking polls, Bush now trails John Kerry by a point. It’ll be interesting to see what effect Slick Willie’s comeback will have in the days to come. Furthermore, Rasmussen shows a 48-48 tie in Florida right now. It’s looking as though Bush’s best chance at an Electoral College victory at this point is sweeping the Upper Midwest and New Mexico, and I certainly wouldn’t count on that scenario playing out.
I’d have to concur about Missouri. In Kansas City, I gather that their is a lot of support for democrats. But, at least while I was there, St. Louis seemed to be split for the candidates. St. Louis City has a lot of actively political democrats in the many colleges of the town and in office. But I found a lot of politically vocal republicans as well.
Personally, I think conservative talk radio has been a contributing factor down there. They’ve got a newly popular FM station and an AM station that’s been popular there for years (mostly because of Rush L.) that a lot of people referenced when discussing politics. I think they might have an liberal talk radio too. But I only found them once.
Mark, I wouldn’t consider that his best opprotunity. Electoral-vote.com is reporting a Zogby poll that has Bush ahead in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, and New Mexico. All swing states. The same polling period has Kerry squarely in the lead in Michigan,
Speaking of swing states, that site shows 11 states techincally up in the air (<5%), and 14 additional states that may or may not be locked (<10%) for the candidates. Including, though I agree they are unlikely to move, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinios, Missouri, North Carolina, and Conneticut (to name a few).
That means with current polling putting the electoral college at 247 Kerry 285 Bush , That 121 votes are up in the air with an additional 183 votes unlocked.
Certainly either candidate has a good chance in winning. Just hope you’ll be in a state that can make a difference.
Chris, the Zogby Poll in Ohio conflicts with a half dozen other state polls from the state last week, all showing Kerry with a slight lead. The same round of Zogby polls showed Kerry up by four in Colorado. Given that Kerry is pulling out of Colorado today, it’s hard to put much stock in the validity of any of those polls. I’m generally not worried about New Mexico, where I believe the same unpolled Hispanics and Native Americans that carried the state for Gore to everyone’s surprise four years ago will come out for Kerry this time. Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin remain a concern though. Perhaps the latest act of incompetence by the Bush administration (letting 350 tons of explosive get stolen from Iraq) will help Kerry out in these anti-war states. I continue to be stunned that Bush is competitive in Iowa, which doesn’t fit the profile of a Bush state in the least (at least in the population centers).
Missouri has basically become like the rest of the South except with half as many blacks. I could tell the Dems were in long-term trouble in the Show Me State by looking at the county-by-county breakdown of the state in 2000. Gore did surprisingly well in the suburbs of St. Louis and metropolitan Kansas City, but was destroyed virtually everywhere else. Long-time Democratic bastions like Columbia and St. Joseph barely went Gore while rural counties in northern Missouri that went for Clinton twice went for Bush by more than 60%. Knowing that the Democratic performance in suburban St. Louis was unlikely to hold every election cycle, this right-wing shift in rural Missouri made the state close to a lost cause right away for Kerry IMHO. If Gore couldn’t win with a majority in St. Louis County, it’s very unlikely Kerry could make up the 80,000 votes elsewhere. One key issue that went neglected by the candidates that may have made the difference in Missouri and Arkansas was meth. Both states are being absolutely ruined by it, but neither candidate has mentioned it once to my knowledge. In that part of the country, meth is probably a bigger issue than anything else, homeland security included.
Americans abroad vote for their state of origin or are they counted as “abroad voters”?
You vote in your state of origin – basically where you’ve last had residency.
I see registration points for Americans all over Berlin. One radio commenter even went so far as to say that maybe Berlin is a swing state 😉
So, this is how it works: you register in Berlin for the state in the US where you last lived. So the votes cast here do NOT count as Berlin votes, but MN votes or whatnot. So maybe Berlin is not a swing state, after all 🙁
J.