A recent Pace University Poll of first-time voters finds that Bush has a narrow lead with first-time voters, contrary to expectations:
Among first-time voters, President George W. Bush seems to be gaining ground as the campaign proceeds. He has a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John Kerry (48% favor Bush in a head-to-head race, and 44% favor Kerry). Bush’s support in this group has climbed 8 points since the previous Pace Poll/Rock the Vote survey in July (from 40% to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry’s support has slipped 6 points (from 50% in July to 44% today). Seven percent remain undecided.
I have a feeling that first-time voters aren’t such a massive Kerry support bloc. First time voters are the first voters of the 9/11 Generation. There have been studies that indicate that college students are becoming more and more conservative on certain issues, and that helps Bush. Campuses are still liberal, but nowhere near as liberal as they once were – especially not after September 11 helped shatter the moral nihilism of the left.
There’s a lot of sketchy data out there making it difficult to make a conclusion. However, if this Pace poll is correct, it bodes very well for President Bush. With so few undecided voters, there may not be enough to swing the race to Kerry, and I have a suspicion that Kerry’s poll numbers may be higher than his actual percentage of the vote may be. I know of many people who don’t like Bush, especially on domestic policy, but just can’t trust Kerry to make them safe. Even if this percentage of people is no more than 1-2% of the electorate, it could be more than enough to ensure a second term for the President.
I think you’re really dreaming on this one. Pace’s numbers stand in direct contrast with virtually every other major poll that show Kerry with a double-digit lead among young voters (and by young, I mean 18-29, not just 18-24). You’re also alone is predicting that Kerry’s poll numbers OVERESTIMATE his level of support. Unless there’s a major event in the next seven days, you are virtually assured of being proven wrong on that count. Your irrational exuberance is admirable, but most indications suggest you’re gonna go down with a sinking ship while Kerry supporters hold their heads high above the surface. We should know in about six days and five hours who’s right.
Jeez, Jay, I hate to agree with your pet Lefty, but I think he’s right, at least about first-time voters. I just don’t find that poll credible at all.
My gut tells me to agree with Spoons. But. These first time voters appear to be the generation that enlisted in great numbers following 9/11 and continue to enlist to meet all the military’s recruiting goals. They also may know soldiers and sailors and marines who have enlisted. Maybe. Maybe Bush’s numbers will exceed what we would expect, even if not a majority. I don’t know, but it cvcertainly is an interesting academic question.
I’m skeptical of it, but I’ve also seen a lot of ancillary evidence that indicates it just may be true. Also notice that the Pace survey is of all first-time voters, not just 18-24 or 18-29 year-olds.
As a 33 year old, first-time voter, I can tell you that in my circle, that poll is right on point. I have some friends my age who are first time voters too, and we’re all voting for Bush.
Rikki, and what state are you from? If it’s Pennsylvania, I should probably be worried. If it’s Oklahoma, I’m not gonna break a sweat.
Be worried…be VERY worried. We’re in Pennsylvania…and we’re black! LOL!!
Rikki, sure you are.
So what are you saying, Mark? You don’t believe I am what I say I am?
Rikki, I will not call you a liar, but the premise you are trying to sell me is far-fetched. You’re a 33-year-old African American first-time voter who is supporting George Bush so solidly that you’re surfing the political blogosphere to cheerlead for him, despite never having an interest in politics before. And beyond that, everybody else in your circle of apolitical African-American friends are also first-time voters who support Bush. Surely you can understand why a premise like that would lead a Democratic reader such as myself to dismiss it is as a head fake.
First of all, I never said ALL my friends were voting for Bush. I said some. The first election I could vote in was ’92. I took an instant dislike to Bill Clinton, and didn’t care enough about politics at the time to really look into anybody else. I will admit to being completely apathetic about politics until the Monica Lewinsky scandal, but still not interested enough to vote. 9/11 changed all of that for me.
Secondly, I don’t surf the blogosphere to cheer for the President. I surf to read what’s going on. I just chose to comment on this post because I could relate to it.
To remove ALL doubt, here is a link to my (very much neglected) blog…which shows my picture and talks about my visit to a local attraction..in PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA.
*smile*
http://www.whatdapuff.com/written/index.php?/weblog/2004/05/25/