I wouldn’t have thought that Minnesota would go for Bush, but the Hubert Humphry Institute puts Bush ahead of Kerry by 3 points – a narrow lead, but also a sign that Kerry is in deep trouble in the Midwest.
Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin tend to vote as a bloc, and right now Bush the potential to take all three. If that happens, it’s virtually impossible for Kerry to win unless he picks up both Florida and Ohio. Right now the momentum in the Electoral College remains with the President, and Kerry is fighting just to stay even. I’ve been predicting that this race will be decided east of the Missouri River, and if Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin go for Bush, Kerry’s campaign will meet its Waterloo in the Midwest…
The Humphreys Institute poll showed Nader getting 5%, which immediately makes the sample seem questionable. My dad has been doing GOTV work for the last six weeks and has run into a grand total of two Nader voters out of about 1,000 households. The internals of the likely voter also failed to pass the smell test, showing that 15% of Minnesota’s large demographic of political independents plan to support Nader. Very hard to believe. Even in just a two-person contest, the poll showed Bush with a one-point lead, even though he was only winning 5% of Democrats and was supported by 8% fewer independents than was Kerry. The numbers simply don’t add. Likewise, the St. Cloud State poll showing Kerry up by 7 is also unreliable since it gave Democrats an eight-point party affiliation advantage. That is definitely no longer the case in Minnesota.
It’s become apparent that Kerry and Bush will have a fight to finish line in Minnesota. I’ve been saying for months that I thought Bush had a chance here with the rapid demographic changes of the state. I still give Kerry a slight advantage, but I doubt Minnesota will be in the blue state column very often in the next generation if voters are willing to give the green light to four more years of a right-wing radical like George Bush. Here in 2004, however, I continue to be cautiously optimistic that Kerry will eke out wins in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. In Iowa, I suspect the huge numbers of Democrats who voted early are the primary explanation for why Iowa has been narrowly in the Bush column for the last couple weeks. When pollsters are calling in search of “likely voters” they’re probably not counting the disproportionate number of Democrats who have already voted for Kerry. Of course, this is just wishful thinking. Kerry needs to win two out of three states in the Upper Midwest to win. If he only one, or worse zero, he’ll need both Ohio and Florida to get to 270. That’s a tall order.
15% sounds fishy, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kerry’s efforts to show strength on national security haven’t alienated the radical left in Minnesota. Minnesota is one of Nader’s strongest states, and if you’re talking about a specific subgroup of independents it’s quite possible for him to poll 15%.
Kerry will carry Minnesota. I will personally see to that by dragging every last Democrat, kicking and screaming to the polls.
I hope Bush is heartened by these polls and winds up spending time in Minnesota. Ain’t gonna happen for him.