Is Pennsylvania In Play?

Quinnipac has Pennsylvania tied with between Bush and Kerry. I was willing to dismiss Gallup’s poll of PA showing Bush ahead by 4 as a fluke, but if these polls are correct, Pennsylvania could be in play.

If PA goes to Bush, Kerry is virtually assured to lose. If PA is trending Bush, Ohio may be following suit thanks to similar demographics. At this stage, Kerry has a lot of places he needs to defend and if Ohio and Florida stay red, I don’t see a Kerry victory being all that likely.

Then again, that doesn’t mean it’s in the bag, which is why every Republican needs to get to the polls tomorrow.

6 thoughts on “Is Pennsylvania In Play?

  1. Quinnipiac had Bush ahead by three points in PA a few days ago. I do wish that Kerry had made a final trip to Pennsylvania, but very few observers believe Bush has a chance there. Clearly, Kerry is toast if he doesn’t win Pennsylvania, but I’d say Bush has about as much chance of winning PA and Kerry has of winning neighboring West Virginia…possible but only in a landslide.

  2. More bad news for Bush….

    The latest tracking poll numbers from Rasmussen and Fox News have further eroded Bush’s slim-and-getting-slimmer margin in the RCP average. While just a few days ago, you were able to boast of Bush’s consistent three-point advantage on RCP, that figure has now been reduced to a mere 1.3%.

    Bottom line….it’s cardiac arrest time in the Bush campaign. All your talk of momentum for Bush is directly contradicted by every tracking poll. Considering that the almost guaranteed record turnout would tend to benefit Kerry, Bush’s only hope of winning this election is that Americans will go to the polls terrified. I’m not sensing that to be the case.

  3. Weekend tracking polls always favor Democrats. A three-day rolling sample coming out today is going to show a Kerry advantage.

    Yet even when Gallup allocates 90% of the undecideds to Kerry (which isn’t even close to accurate), Kerry can only tie the President. Already it’s liking like Pennsylvania is in play and the Bush team is bullish on Ohio.

    Gloat all you want, it will make it much more fun when Kerry’s giving his concession speech tomorrow…

  4. You mean, of course, that all AMERICANS need to get out and vote. The idea of democracy is that everyone can voice their opinion, that’s the point of an election.

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