That’s my prediction for the race for the US Senate in South Dakota. It’s still going to be a close race, but I see much more enthusiasm with the Thune people than I do with the Daschle people. Daschle is running against his own liberal record, and in a state that’s redder than Ted Kennedy’s face after 6PM, that’s the kiss of death. I also think the constant stream of Daschle attack ads have made South Dakota voters sick and tired of him. For more analysis on the South Dakota Senate race, see my piece at Red State.
Thune 51 – Daschle 49
Published
Unlike your irrationally exuberant Presidential race predictions, you may have hit the nail on the head for the South Dakota Senate. I’m more inclined to trust the KELO poll that shows Daschle slightly ahead than I am to trust the methodically questionable Rasmussen and Zogby polls from last week showing Thune ahead, but Daschle’s margin even in the KELO poll has been in freefall. Combine that with the usual late surge for the GOP in South Dakota and Daschle has his work cut for him. He needs 55% in Sioux Falls and a huge turnout on the reservations or he’s done for. As far as South Dakota being “redder than Ted Kennedy’s face after 6 p.m.”, that’s kind of an overstatement for a state that has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Nebraska, Idaho or Wyoming would be better suited for that designation.
Anyway, here’s my final competitive Senate race predictions…
Alaska–Tony Knowles by 2….Bush’s coattails in Alaska will be extreme, but I’ve yet to see a poll with Murkowski ahead and her liberalism (at least by today’s GOP standard) will hardly fire up the base. My guess is Alaskans will punish her father for shameless nepotism and the Dems will pick up a seat.
Colorado–Salazar by 2….I was about to concede a probable loss in this seat, but Salazar has gained some steam (even excluding Zogby’s ridiculous outliers) in recent polls. Colorado almost always seems to disappoint for the Dems, but its status as a battleground state is likely to have invigorated Hispanics. Beyond that, Salazar is a much better politician than Coors, who was destroyed by Tim Russert last month on Meet the Press. He’d best stick to making bad beer and signing Mary Cheney’s paychecks. A pickup for Dems.
Florida–Martinez by 2….this is a tough one to call, but I’m not exactly sure higher turnout will benefit the Dems in this race. Many of the new voters in FL are non-Cuban Hispanics who are likely to vote for Kerry, but then pull the lever for the Senate candidate whose last name sounds like theirs. This will be a good one to watch, but I have to give the edge to Martinez. A pickup for the GOP.
Kentucky–Bunning by 5…Charlie Cook is predicting an upset here for Mongiardo, but I can’t see it. If Kentuckians haven’t seen enough evidence yet to dismiss Bunning as someone more in need of a padded room than a second Senate term, I struggle to believe they will by tomorrow. Mongiardo’s only hope is that voters repudiate the latest GOP character assassination of accusing him of being gay, or as they referred to him, “limp-wristed.” In homophobic Kentucky, however, that’ll be a tall order. Hold for the GOP.
Louisiana–Vitter at 47%. A likely runoff here. John has the geographical advantage in the runoff if it comes to that, but the winner of the presidential election is likely to play the biggest role in deciding which party gets this seat in December. Too close to call.
North Carolina–Burr by 3. Burr gained tremendous ground against Bowles in just a couple weeks after running a horrendous campaign in the early stages. Now he looks poised to win, but a high turnout of blacks and support for favorite son Edwards could still save Bowles. The odds are in favor of Burr though. A pickup for the GOP.
Oklahoma–Coburn by 6….I always thought this was too good to be true. Unless the vast majority of undecideds, who are probably all planning to vote for Bush, end up going to Carson, Coburn should win comfortably despite being one of the worst candidates in recent history. Only in Oklahoma can a guy win on a platform of what he’s not gonna do for the state just because he has Republican attached to his name. Then again, South Dakotans voting for Thune are generally doing the same thing when you think about it. Hold for the GOP.
South Carolina–DeMint by 5…Like Coors from CO, Russert mopped the floor up with DeMint on Meet the Press, but still came out of the debate looking better than Tenenbaum because of Inez’s pro-choice stance on abortion. Not exactly an effective course to the Senate when you’re running in a state that’s home to Bob Jones University. It’s hard to see a scenario where Tenenbaum wins. Pickup for the GOP.
South Dakota–Daschle by 0.2….I’ll be optimistic here and hope the Indians pull it out for Daschle, but only by a whisker. Of my nine predictions for Senate, I have the least confidence in this one. Hold for the Dems.
Overall, a pickup of one for the GOP, with Louisiana still pending.
Specific predictions on South Dakota races by county, although not as detailed as my Minnesota predictions…
Harding County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Butte County (Belle Fourche)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Lawrence County (Spearfish, Deadwood)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Pennington County (Rapid City)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Custer County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Fall River County–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Perkins County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Meade County (Sturgis)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Jackson County (Kadoka, north Pine Ridge)–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Shannon County (Pine Ridge Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Corson County (Standing Rock Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Ziebach County (Cheyenne River Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Dewey County (Eagle Butte, Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Haakon County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Jones County (Murdo)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Stanley County (Fort Pierre)–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Lyman County–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Bennett County–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Mellette County–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Todd County (Rosebud Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Tripp County (Winner)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Gregory County–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Campbell County (Mound City)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
McPherson County (Eureka)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Walworth County (Mobridge, Selby)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Edmunds County (Ipswich)–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Brown County (Aberdeen)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Marshall County (Britton)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Day County (Webster)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Roberts County (Sisseton)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Potter County (Gettysburg)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Faulk County (Faulkton)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Spink County (Redfield)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Clark County (Clark)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Codington County (Watertown)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Hamlin County (Lake Preston, Hayti)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Grant County (Milbank)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Deuel County (Clear Lake)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Sully County (Onida)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Hughes County (Pierre)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Hyde County (Highmore)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Hand County (Miller)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Beadle County (Huron)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Kingsbury County (De Smet)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Brookings County (Brookings)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Buffalo County (Crow Creek Rez)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Jerauld County (Wessington Springs)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Sanborn County (Woonsocket)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Miner County (Howard)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Lake County (Madison)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Moody County (Flandreau)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Brule County (Chamberlain)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Aurora County (Plankinton)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Davison County (Mitchell)–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Hanson County (Alexandria)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
McCook County (Salem)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Charles Mix County–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Douglas County (Armour)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Hutchinson County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Turner County–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Lincoln County (Canton, Sioux Falls fringe)–Bush, Thune, Diedrich
Bon Homme County (Tyndall)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Yankton County (Yankton)–Bush, Daschle, Herseth
Clay County (Vermillion)–Kerry, Daschle, Herseth
Union County (North Sioux City)–Bush, Thune, Herseth
Hmm… I’m guessing that SD will either go Daschle (by about 500 votes) or Thune (by 2000-3000 votes). Shot in the dark though. 🙂
As for Oklahoma, even Dennis Hastert is saying that looks like a GOP loss, so I’m betting Carson’s cowboy populism will pick up another seat for the dems. I’m less certain about Salazar in Colorado- Coors is a big name out there, and his campaign has been picking up steam in the last few weeks. I won’t even venture a guess there.
Of course, just about the most certain Senate race in the country is Illinois- and it wouldn’t suprise me at all if Keyes’ campaigning has actually hurt Bush in that state. Obama (reincarnation of MLK, or at least the media would make one think so) has been polling as high as 75-80% in Ill- I predict he’ll win by a landslide, with at least 72% of the vote.
But these are all educated guesses. To quote Niels Bohr, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.”
No way! Alan Keyes is gonna win in a landslide!
Hey, wait, what are those people in the white labcoats doing here?!
Mmmm… thorazine…
🙂
Nice call. 🙂