In less than 2 days, the people of Iraq will go to the polls — and already Iraqis in countries across the world from the United States to Germany to Australia. The spirit of democracy among Iraqis is stretching from the Fertile Crescent to the rest of the globe. It is only natural that other Arab regimes are trying to downplay the elections — they know quite well that once one country in a region seizes freedom for itself, others will follow.
The events of the next few hours will change the world — and despite the threats of the terrorists the Iraqi people remain unbowed. Their will towards democracy and freedom will transform not only Iraq, but the entire world.
Hi Jay,
I’m an editor of a multi-contributor blog. I wonder if you wouldn’t mind sending me an email so that I can run something by you.
Cheers.
Jay, you are making a very bold satement here by saying once one country in a region seizes freedom for itself, others will follow. You are giving a slightly modified version of the domino effect theory that much of the cold war was based on. I would be interested to hear how you envision the mechanics of such a process, especially in as volatile a region as the middle East. Freedom (and what exactly do you mean by freedom/democracy? Does freedom include the freedom to choose a democratically legitamized kind of government that differs from our understanding of “democratic” or “free”?) does not work like a contagious virus that will infect neighboring countries just by virtue of a common border?
J.
That’s an excellent question. The reason I think that democracy will spread is that democracy tends to travel in “waves”. The first lasted from about 1776-1826, the second from 1890-1920, the third from 1944-1965, and the fourth from 1989-1995. I think this could well be the fifth wave.
It’s basic human nature. We all want what everyone else has. If your average Mohammad al-Iraqi has the ability to choose his own leaders, the other people in the Middle East are going to start asking questions. Already there have been democratic elections in Afghanistan and Palestine. That’s why Syria and Iran are trying whatever they can to prevent these elections from going smoothly – a democratic and secular Iraq is going to make more of their people demand democracy and secularization. If Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani gets his way and the Iraqi Shi’a embrace democracy, it’s the end of the Iranian theocracy. All of a suddent you’ll have a moderate strain of Shi’a Islam saying that the Shi’ite faith and democracy are not only compatable, but that theocracy is un-Islamic. Once that happens, that ideology will spread — and the effects will be historic.