The Washington Post has a piece on how conservatives are abandoning the President over issues such as spending and immigration. The President’s precipitous slide in the polls is largely a function of this massive erosion in conservative confidence in his leadership:
The Gallup polling organization recorded a 13-percentage-point drop in Republican support for Bush in the past couple of weeks. These usually reliable voters are telling pollsters and lawmakers they are fed up with what they see as out-of-control spending by Washington and, more generally, an abandonment of core conservative principles.
There are also significant pockets of conservatives turning on Bush and Congress over their failure to tighten immigration laws, restrict same-sex marriage, and put an end to the Iraq war and the rash of political scandals, according to lawmakers and pollsters.
Bush won two presidential elections by pursuing a political and governing model that was predicated on winning and sustaining the loyal backing of social, economic and foreign policy conservatives. The strategy was based on the belief that conservatives, who are often more politically active than the general public, could be inspired to vote in larger numbers and would serve as a reliable foundation for his presidency. The theory, as explained by Bush strategists, is that the president would enjoy a floor below which his support would never fall.
It is now apparent that this floor has weakened dramatically — and collapsed in places.
It’s not surprising. Despite the hackneyed arguments from the left, Bush’s support from conservatives has always been conditional on his willingness to support conservative principles. The idea that those who supported the war or other policies of the Administration did so out of loyalty rather than support for an enduring set of principles was always a convenient fiction for some – and Bush’s fall is not because a bunch of deluded Bush “apologists” have come to their sense, but because the President’s actions have betrayed those enduring principles.
Bush is probably close to the lowest point he can go in the polls – but even that isn’t certain. The lack of leadership coming out of the White House these days has left the Republican Party in a sad state, and Congress isn’t doing any better – in fact, Congress’ approval ratings are lower than the President’s.
Someone’s going to have to show some real leadership – demand enforcement of our border security, demand cuts in earmarks and other forms of pork-barrel spending, and demand more leadership on the Iraq issue. The Republicans are unable, and the Democrats are too focused on Bush to care about much else. People are sick and tired of the horrendous dysfunction of our political culture, and they’re right to feel that way. 2006 could well be a bloodbath, but when the inevitable result will be more partisan bullsh*t, it’s hard to get excited about that potential.
Unless the President starts getting in front of the issues instead of getting steamrolled by them and starts shoring up his conservative base on immigration and spending, Bush’s slide will only continue. How low can Bush go? If he doesn’t shape up on key conservative issues, we may yet find out.
The NSA stuff is out today. Rove will be indicted in the next week or two. My guess at the lowest is 26%.
The real question is whether this has some profound implications for 2008. If the conservatives are getting their panties in a bunch, McCain and Guiliani are either going to have a.) a hard time getting nomination because the cons get behind a right-winger or b.) a hard time getting elected because the cons stay home.
Ahhh, the Bush popularity limbo contest….one of my favorite races-to-the-bottom of recent memory. I gotta give props to the conservatives who have abandoned him. I would have never imagined last year at this time that The Decider’s approval rating could have sunk below 40% under any circumstances. It’s nice to know that even some conservatives are willing to balk at the overwhelming incompetence of this administration. Of course, most of them will come racing back to the GOP as soon as Rove rolls out his usual strategy of comparing Democrats to the worst evil that has ever befallen our globe….and the Democrats are likely to play right into those hands.
With that said, Seth makes a good point. If “real Republicans” are abandoning Bush right now on the grounds that he’s “not conservative enough”, that bodes poorly for McCain and Giuliani and their efforts to secure the GOP nomination in 2008. And even if they do squeak in, the millions of right-wingers currently walking away from Bush on the grounds that he’s insufficiently conservative will almost assuredly pose a major rebellion with a Sam Brownback-style wingnut running third party and sweeping through the South like a big wheel through a cotton field.
Except Bush’s biggest weaknesses aren’t on social issues, they’re on immigration and spending. Both McCain and Giuliani are well to the right of the President on those issues. Giuliani’s law and order persona would make him popular with those who want tighter border controls. McCain’s one of the stronger fiscal hawks in Congress.
The chance of some kind of third-party revolt in 2008 doesn’t strike me as particularly likely at all.
It’s additional proof of the “honesty” of the Left when they laud conservatives for “leaving” Bush while they hold steadfast to everything Clinton.
Jay, McCain is to the right of Bush on immigration? The guy’s co-sponsoring an amnesty-with-no-border-enforcement bill with Ted Kennedy that has most infuriated conservatives. The absolute last Republican that immigration voters will embrace is McCain. I don’t know Giuliani’s position on the issue, but suspect his social liberalism is not likely to put him in the ranks of immigration hawks. Time will certainly tell.
Joaquin:
Most of the Leftists I know hate everything about Clinton.
It’s those damn centrists (like me) who still have a soft spot for him… but seldom for “everything” about him, or his policies.
“most Leftists…… hate everything about Clinton?” Yeah remember all that Leftist hate mail during the 90s.
Bush is collapsing because he is a Lefty dressed up as a Conservative. Big government programs and big spending are not issues that will win him conservative hearts. But add to this Bush’s death wish-his bad jusgement when he worked with Teddy to pass his vast educational spending and described Putin as “someone he could trust.” He is just his daddy’s boy.
Nicholas: How can you say that with a straight face?
Thomas: I don’t consider Bush a Lefty. Yes, he joined ranks with Teddy and failed to veto any spending bills however; when you look at the budget, and remove military spending, the budget has remained flat. Obviously I would be happier with a smaller budget!
Where Bush has let me down is his lack of control of his own party and his cavalier attitude on illegal immigration.
I don’t have a problem with “palling around” with Putin but, I can’t swallow his relationship with Vicente Fox. We need Putin “in our corner”. Fox is nothing but a parasite.
Joaquin and Jackson: I’m talking about real leftists, not liberals. The Marxists and Socialists I know hate Clinton with a burning passion; it was this hate that brought about the Nader rebellion in 2000.